Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Stock Market to Fall 16% More into March 11th? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The chart below shows that the SPX 1650 level may be next and sooner than most think. Looking at this 2 hour chart of the SPX, we can see a similarity to the December 27, 2015 top. The move up from February 19 into February 22 is stronger by 27.7% suggesting a harder move down this time than in late December into January 20th. March 11th is nearby to the Bradley March 10th date. March 11th is the anniversary of the 2015 20 week low, is 20 TD's from the January 20th low, and the 7/28 week cycle low from August 24th, 2015. The 1650 level beckons.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

The Fed's Nightmare Scenario / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Peter_Schiff

Operating under the mistaken belief that a modest dose of inflation is either a prerequisite for, or a by-product of, economic growth, the nation's top economists have been assuring us for quite some time that inflation will stay very low until the currently mediocre economy finally catches fire. As a result, they believe that the low inflation of the past few months has frustrated Federal Reserve policy makers, who have been supposedly chomping at the bit to keep hiking rates in order to restore confidence in the present and to build the ability to cut rates in the future if the nation were to ever, god forbid, enter another recession.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Copper: The Next Metal Set To Rise After Gold? / Commodities / Copper

By: InvestingHaven

The copper market is getting excited! After a drop of +50% since it peaked in 2011, copper has basically gone only one way, i.e. down (just not in a straight line).

Now, copper is showing a similar setup as gold two months ago, right before gold rose sharply higher. Copper’s chart setup makes it very interesting, because sentiment is so negative nowadays: economic growth is slowing (driven by China), the interest rate hike was followed by talks about coming negative interest rates, companies are reporting rather poor earnings, manufacturing data are not very encouraging, … The list is endless, so everyone and his uncle is convinced that copper can only go one direction, i.e. down. That’s exactly the moment when magic happens in markets, as prices tend to move in the opposite direction, but that’s only a  benefit for the sharpest investors as 99% has given up already.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

The Escalating War on Cash and What It Means For Metals / Commodities / War on Cash

By: MoneyMetals

Clint Siegner writes: Government bureaucrats, central bankers, and Wall Street executives all have their own reasons for hating the cash in your wallet. So, no surprise, they are working closely together to rid you of it.

The war on cash is intensifying and bullion investors are wondering what the transition to a "cashless society" might mean. We'll cover that, but let's first recap why these organizations are, once again, allied together to the detriment of your ability to transact privately.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Bonds Aren't Buying the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Bonds aren’t buying the rally in stocks. ZeroHedge reports, “While the algos are closely following every momentum-generating uptick in global equities on the back of yet another short squeeze in crude, one asset class that has been roundly ignored are Treasurys, which have refused to follow the equity euphoria and have in fact roundtripped today's entire risk on move, suggesting that once again, "bonds aren't buying it."

Monday, February 22, 2016

British Pound BrExit Plunge Press Panic! FACT: Helps Britain WIN Currency War! / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The mainstream press today illustrated the magnitude of the depth of their ignorance of the markets as right across the spectrum from the likes of the BBC, to Channel 4 News to the myriad of dieing broadsheet publications such as the FT, all in unison propagated headlines such as a 'Boris Johnson Causes a Run on the Pound' following a 3 cent dip against the US Dollar on rising BrExit fears as though this was catastrophically bad news, one of panic, though conveniently ignoring the fact that the FTSE closed higher on so called BrExit Panic day.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Gold and Silver Price Rise Has Begun / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

The S&P 500 Index (chart below) shows a top in May 2015, a correction into August, and a deeper fall this month – February 2016.  Look out below.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Stock Market Pivot Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX Premarket has risen to the range of 1937.00 this morning. That means the Wave structure has morphed into a Minor wave C. The target for this wave [Where Wave (v) equals (i)] is 1945.48. An expanded flat Wave (2) would terminate in the range of the Wave A high at 1947.20. The Broadening formation trendline appears to be near 1952.00, so this gives us a range of outcomes for today.

Monday, February 22, 2016

USDCAD And SP500 Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Gregor_Horvat

USDCAD

On USDCAD we are looking at declining price action from 1.4018 that can be an expanding diagonal, now moving down into the final stages of decline. We see wave 5 of C) headed beneath 1.3650 and even towards 1.3600 area, where pair can be looking to form a low this week.

USDCAD, 1H

Monday, February 22, 2016

U.S. Inflation: Prepare for 4% or more! / Economics / Inflation

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Last we visited on the subject of U.S. inflation (November, 2015) we wrote,

"Using those simplistic numbers suggests that U.S. inflation as measured by the [headline] CPI could rise to an annual rate of about 4% ..."

Monday, February 22, 2016

Silver and Gold Will Protect From Coming Bank Bail-Ins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Josh Sigurdson and John Sneisen of World Alternative Media interviewed Mark O’Byrne, co-founder of GoldCore, late last week. The value of silver and gold during bail-ins and in a financial crisis was covered and other topics covered included

Monday, February 22, 2016

Ron Paul on U.S. Intervention Failure: Back to Libya / Politics / US Military

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

The use of the US military overseas seems to have become so commonplace that the Obama Administration can bomb a country with no Congressional input and very little media interest at all. Such was the case on Friday, when the US military killed some 49 people in a bombing run near Tripoli, Libya.

We had to bomb Libya, we are told, because Libya has become a hotbed of ISIS activity. The group has been moving training facilities into the country, taking advantage of the chaos. Ironically, it was five years ago this week that the "Arab Spring" uprising began in Libya -- an uprising that was supported by US military force and led to the overthrow of the Libyan government and the murder of its leader, Gaddafi.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Gold Ratio Chartology Quietly Suggesting a Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to update a few of the ratio charts we've been following that are still showing an important low or bear market low is in place for gold. There are so many things we read where this analysis says this and that analysis says that but the more one reads the more confused they become. There is no Holy Grail when it comes to trading the markets although everyone is looking for one. Every trading discipline has its own unique characteristics that if one has the discipline to study it long enough they may eventually get pretty good at interpreting what it's saying. Find something that matches your own personality and through trial and error you maybe surprised at what you may discover.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Are Asian Central Bankers Even Crazier Than Our Own? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Raul_I_Meijer

That the world’s central bankers get a lot of things wrong, deliberately or not, and have done so for years now, is nothing new. But that they do things that result in the exact opposite of what they ostensibly aim for, and predictably so, perhaps is. And it’s something that seems to be catching on, especially in Asia.

Now, let’s be clear on one thing first: central bankers have taken on roles and hubris and ‘importance’, that they should never have been allowed to get their fat little greedy fingers on. Central bankers in their 2016 disguise have no place in a functioning economy, let alone society, playing around with trillions of dollars in taxpayer money which they throw around to allegedly save an economy.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Crude Oil Price Bottom, Forecast to Double Before End of 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price last close of $32 stands $6 higher than its recent multi-year bear market low of $26. Whilst little has changed fundamentally so far in terms of supply i.e. OPEC and others are still pumping flat out and Iran continues to ramp up production, nevertheless demand destruction of many smaller oil producers operating at below break even prices is finally starting to be discounted by the market.

Monday, February 22, 2016

US Dollar and The Global 'Peg Pain Trade' / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gordon_T_Long

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long analyze, with 25 slides, the strength in the US Dollar and what we can likely expect going forward.

Both see a strong dollar in the future as it becomes, more and more a flight to safety associated with failed monetary / fiscal policies, weakening current accounts and slowing trade around the world. It isn't that the US$ is a paragon of virtue and value, but rather the "least ugly".

Monday, February 22, 2016

Silver Underperforms Gold in Early Stages of Bull Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Clive_Maund

In the early part of Precious Metal bullmarkets, gold performs better than silver, but in the latter part silver outperforms gold. The reason is that the early part of bullmarkets in the sector are characterized by more serious and sober value oriented investors, whereas the latter part is characterized by momentum traders and speculators trying to make a fast buck, and they are attracted by the high leverage of silver relative to gold. This is the reason that the giant ramp in silver in the opening months of 2011 to a final parabolic slingshot peak in April - May signaled that it was all over, many months before gold itself topped out.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Gold Price Finally Breaking Out to Commence a Major Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Clive_Maund

This has been a momentous month for gold, with it finally breaking out of its long downtrend to commence a major bullmarket. Thus it is amusing to see Goldman Sachs talking about it dropping back to $1000 again. Those timorously wondering whether they are right should stop and ask themselves whose interests are paramount to Goldman, the government and Wall St, or the Little Guy trying to protect what's left of his capital. Those still in doubt should read Goldman Capitulates .

We have been wondering over the past week whether gold and silver have been starting to mark out bull Flags or whether they are instead at intermediate tops. That question is answered for us by the latest COTs which reveal that Commercial short positions have exploded in recent weeks, particularly in silver, where they are now at "nosebleed levels". We therefore now expect a correction, which could be quite heavy - so Curb your Enthusiasm, people. When it happens don't be fooled into thinking that the bearmarket is back on and Goldman is right. Instead take the opportunity to back up the truck and load up on PM sectors investments, many of which have risen too far too fast in recent weeks.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Stock Market Phase Correction In Progress / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Severe correction underway.

SPX: Intermediate trend - Phase correction in process.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Japan Has Officially Lost Control of Its Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

For over six years, the markets have been moving based on Central Banker actions and words.

The first phase (2009 to 2013) was dominated by action (ZIRP and QE).