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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Friday, October 11, 2019

China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

In contrast to gloomy international projections, economic realities suggest that China’s Golden Week may have exceeded expectations.

I spent China’s 70-year National Day festivities in Shanghai, China's global financial hub, and Guangzhou, the global trade hub of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In both, China’s massive transition toward consumption and innovation is now an increasing reality.

Due to US tariff wars, Chinese mass consumers – like their peers in the United States, Europe and Japan – are cost-conscious, increasingly discriminate and sophisticated in their spending. Indeed, sales of gold jewelry boomed during the holidays, fueled by gold prices, holiday festivities and the wedding season.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 11, 2019

Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Donald_W_Dony

The on-again, off-again, on-again Trump trade war with China coupled with weakening signs of U.S. economic growth has placed the S&P 500 into another multi-month consolidation.

Stocks continue to gyrate from mid-year as news of a possible trade deal appears to solidify only to have a reverse decision suddenly develop.

This whip-sawing creates uncertainty among traders. As such, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average has remained in a 10% trading band over the last six months, whereas the Canadian TSX has been held in a tighter 6% trading range (Chart 1).

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Commodities

Friday, October 11, 2019

The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The entire precious metals sector rallied yesterday, but the upswing was particularly visible in case of silver and (especially) mining stocks. Both: silver, and miners moved to new October highs. Silver’s breakout was tiny, but miners rallied relatively significantly and that’s the part of the current long trade that’s particularly profitable. Of course, these profits are near to nothing compared to what’s likely ahead in case of the big short trade that we plan to profit on in the following months, but they add their part to the overall results. Please note that a small long position here also means staying temporarily out of the short position, which brings the likelihood of re-entering them at higher prices.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened.

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Housing-Market

Friday, October 11, 2019

US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Dan_Amerman

As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.

The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario - and another six year decline in home values?

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Companies

Friday, October 11, 2019

Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks / Companies / Internet

By: Stephen_McBride

An unusual race recently took place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Former NFL star Keyshawn Johnson lined up at the 40 yard line...

While an average guy named Ricky stood in the end zone.

Keyshawn’s challenge was to run 40 yards faster than Ricky could download an episode of HBO’s Hard Knocks to his smartphone.

Ricky won. He downloaded the hour-long show in 3.6 seconds.
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Personal_Finance

Friday, October 11, 2019

Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money / Personal_Finance / Scams

By: Rodney_Johnson

I’m tired of the impeachment talk and it hasn’t really started yet. With the House working on impeachment inquiries in several committees, we’ll get a healthy dose of political doublespeak from everyone involved for at least the rest of this year. It’s already started to crowd other stories out of the news cycle.

But we have to pay attention, because other things are happening that will directly affect us in the months and years to come.

We got a glimpse of our financial future at the end of last week when the first reports about Puerto Rico’s proposed financial settlement came to light. It’s not finished, but we know two things: The law will be ignored, and investors will get crushed.
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Housing-Market

Friday, October 11, 2019

What’s Your Plan as the Home Price Index Hits Zero / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Rodney_Johnson

The real estate industry must have the best lobbyists in the country. How else can you explain that a data-driven transaction – buying or selling a home – has become more onerous, and more cumbersome. And overall more painful even as information becomes cheaper and easier to get?

These guys are protecting their turf, and we’re paying for it.
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Housing-Market

Friday, October 11, 2019

Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

Earlier this week I read a great article by Kuppy at Adventures In Capitalism. It brought back memories of the last condo and real estate bubble in Miami… I was there. I was moving to Tampa and sold before the crash that I was nearly alone in forecasting in late 2005 .

Kuppy noted that prices had plateaued for a few years and had begun to drop 20% to 35% in South Beach – and worse in the downtown Brickell area. He talks to a friend who makes non-traditional loans against these condos, and he says “it’s about to blow… just give it six to nine months.”
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Companies

Friday, October 11, 2019

How Online Casinos Maximise Profits / Companies / Gambling

By: Submissions

The gambling industry has had great success as of late. A report from the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) - the government body that regulates the gambling industry - showed that during 2019 the total Gross Gambling Yield (GGY) in the UK reached £14.5 billion. It’s an impressive figure, and reflects what many organisations already know to be true — that people still play online casino games, and a younger generation is beginning to love them too.

Statistics from the same report also show a rise in online gambling — the total GGY of the remote sector was an astonishing £5.6 billion. This means that online gambling is one of the largest revenue generating sections of the industry. And it continues to grow in popularity.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Who’s Eyeing Up 2020? Warren or Sanford? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Rodney_Johnson

In a recent interview with MSNBC, Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) said that his House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence had no knowledge of the UkraineGate whistleblower claim before notification from the Inspector General.

That statement was eventually proven false. As the first whistleblower approached staffers for Schiff’s committee before going to the IG. For the falsehood, the Washington Post awarded Schiff “four Pinocchios.”

Although, as my Millennial kids would tell me, if we’re counting falsehoods, the Washington Post would probably award Trump “all the Pinocchios.”
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Commodities

Thursday, October 10, 2019

3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

As the correction in gold stocks continues and as it’s likely to endure for the time being, we take a step back and share some tips for selecting individual junior gold companies.

The current correction may provide the last chance to buy before the bull market in Gold is confirmed and capital pours into the junior sector and pushes up prices.

Here are three of our best tips to help you spot the big winners before the crowd.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 10, 2019

How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

Consumers are always worrying about the rising cost of basic needs, products, and services. Whether we like it or not, the global economy affects all of us.

When we hear the word inflation, we often think about the increase in the prices of the things we buy. But how important is it to understand inflation and the factors that influence it?

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Commodities

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Employment Data, Rate Cut Speculations and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

If you look at the manufacturing data only, the relative strength of the jobs figures surprised. Another positive development were the upward revisions for August and July. The unemployment rate again dropped, this time to 3.5 percent. What will that mean for the Fed and gold?

September Payrolls Slow Down, but Unemployment Rate Drops Anyway

The U.S. created only 136,000 jobs in September, following an increase of 168,000 in August (after an upward revision). The nonfarm payrolls were short of the analysts’ forecast of 150,000. The gains were widespread, spearheaded by education and health services (+40,000) and professional and business services (+34,000). Manufacturing, which is in recession, and retail trade, which faces overcapacity, cut jobs.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Monetary Madness Puts U.S. Dollars Holders in Jeopardy / Currencies / US Dollar

By: MoneyMetals

We’re in uncharted territory. Never before have U.S. fiscal and monetary policy been leveraged so heavily to boost an economy that wasn’t even in recession.

Something will break – and it could be the value of U.S. currency. The Federal Reserve Note now faces devaluation pressures on multiple fronts.

With the federal government running a trillion-dollar budget deficit and an election year approaching, fiscal restraint is a dead letter in Washington, D.C. Politicians are fighting over who can promise to borrow and spend the most.

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Companies

Thursday, October 10, 2019

This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks / Companies / Investing 2019

By: Robert_Ross

Have you checked the returns on your dividend-paying stocks lately?

If so, you should like what you see.

See, most value stocks also pay dividends. And value stocks have been on an incredible run over the last month. They’ve outperformed growth stocks by 9%, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

This isn’t normal. Value stocks haven’t outpaced growth stocks by this wide of a margin since 2010. And this is probably just the start.

Once they break ahead like this, value stocks usually outperform growth stocks for another nine months. This pattern has held up around 75% of the time since 1986.

Those are pretty good odds, making now the perfect time to load up on value stocks. Three in particular…

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Commodities

Thursday, October 10, 2019

What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

1.  It is led by institutions and funds, not private investors. Global quantitative easing created a huge and mobile pool of capital in constant need of a place to call home. As the need for a safe haven became apparent among the stewards of that capital, the demand for gold flourished. The consistent presence of funds and institutions as buyers in this rally, as represented by the growth in ETF stockpiles, is one of its hallmarks and represents one of the major differences between this gold rally and rallies of the past. Though private investors have been late to the game, the rapid development of the physical market for gold coins and bullion in the United Kingdom is testament to the fact that sentiment can change quickly.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

Stock Market US Presidential Cycle  / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Presidential cycle pattern has continued to prove REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as the charts over the past 15 months illustrate, where the basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year. 

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble / Stock-Markets / IPOs

By: John_Mauldin

Justin Spittler : Who remembers Pets.com?

It launched one of the world’s first online pet stores. It never did sell many dog collars or cat treats. But its witty branding made it a cultural phenomenon in America.

Maybe you remember its goofy mascot from the late 1990s.

The dog sock puppet appeared on Good Morning America. He floated down the streets of New York City during the 1999 Thanksgiving Day Parade. He even got on TV during Super Bowl XXXIV. 
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Commodities

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

Is Bill Gates Right On Energy Investing? / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: OilPrice_Com

Not long ago, Bill Gates offered some investment advice. That, in itself, constitutes news, but the content and the reactions make up a more interesting story.

Gates told the Financial Times, in essence, that investors who want to do something about climate change should stop making up lists of companies they do not want in their portfolios based on involvement in fossil fuel production or use. They should, instead, invest in disruptive technologies that will provide actual solutions to climate change.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers believe the global concerns centered around Banking and Debt within the Emerging Markets and Asia/Europe are very likely to become major issues over the next 3+ months.  These potentially dangerous issues could have far-reaching pricing ramifications for almost all of the world’s financial markets.  This weekend, we received first-hand information from an associate in Hong Kong about banks limiting ATM withdrawals and very limited transportation services.  Our source stated the biggest issue was the lack of transportation right now.

We also followed the news of the Bank collapse in India this weekend and the aftermath for Indian banking customers – PMC Bank

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