Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 04, 2018
We Have Had 9 Years To 'Prepare For The Stock Market Crash,' So Are We There Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Avi_Gilburt
This past week, I read an article entitled “When Will S&P 500 Valuations Matter Again?,” written by Gary Gordon.
And, in his first bullet point, he said “truth be told, valuations have not mattered for the public markets for three-and-a-half years.” He then goes on to state that “on virtually any methodology one employs, the U.S. stock market is extremely overpriced.”
In coming to this conclusion, he has reviewed price-to-free-cash-flow, price-to-sales, market-cap-to-GDP, and other valuation matrices. Yet, as he noted in his bullet point, these valuations have not mattered for the three and half years where the market added 50% to its price. Yes, that is a 50% return which cannot be supported by traditional valuation methodologies.
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Tuesday, September 04, 2018
Financial Crisis 10 Years Later – No Lessons Learned / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: James_Quinn
“A variety of investors provided capital to financial companies, with which they made irresponsible loans and took excessive risks. These activities resulted in real losses, which have largely wiped out the shareholder equity of the companies. But behind that shareholder equity is bondholder money, and so much of it that neither depositors of the institution nor the public ever need to take a penny of losses. Citigroup, for example, has $2 trillion in assets, but also has $600 billion owed to its own bondholders. From an ethical perspective, the lenders who took the risk to finance the activities of these companies are the ones that should directly bear the cost of the losses.” – John Hussman – May 2009
This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Wall Street/Fed/Treasury created financial disaster of 2008/2009. What should have happened was an orderly liquidation of the criminal Wall Street banks who committed the greatest control fraud in world history and the disposition of their good assets to non-criminal banks who did not recklessly leverage their assets by 30 to 1, while fraudulently issuing worthless loans to deadbeats and criminals. But we know that did not happen.
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Monday, September 03, 2018
Dow Secondary Stock Market High Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – price as traded as outlined, rising to levels where a secondary is likely to form. However, there is a change to the longer term outlook in that I now favour a more substantial correction to take place before the overall bull market resumes.
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Monday, September 03, 2018
The S&P has become overbought for the first time in 7 months. What’s next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) has become overbought for the first time in a long time. It’s 14 daily RSI has reached 70 for the first time since late-January 2018 while it remains above its 200 daily moving average.
In other words, momentum has returned to the stock market.
When momentum returns to the stock market, its forward returns over the next year are very bullish. Don’t turn bearish just because the stock market is overbought.
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Sunday, September 02, 2018
Financial Markets Are Nearing the Line in the Sand / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Harry_Dent
Most of the classic technical indicators favor a continued rally in stocks into 2019.
And that’s still my preferred scenario for a final peak. One that happens in late 2019, coming off of this Trump rally that started in late 2016.
It could be near its peak growth rate after the 4.1% GDP report.
But it’s not likely to be sustainable for long given that we are running out of workers to rehire, and the real estate bubble seems to be finally be running out of steam due to such high prices making homes and rentals unaffordable.
Saturday, September 01, 2018
S&P Makes 4 Consecutive All-time Highs in August. Like 1987? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
New-all time highs in August for the U.S. stock market are rare because the stock market’s seasonality in August isn’t particularly bullish. But you know what’s even rarer? 4 consecutive all-time highs in August.
As of yesterday, the S&P made 4 consecutive all-time highs (CLOSE $) in August.
The last time this happened was in August 1987, just before the S&P made a “big correction”.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
Dow How Much Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: readtheticker
Lucifer was loved in heaven the day before he fell.
Reference: SP500 Cycle Review
The angels today are: Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NetFlix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL). These stocks are loved by the masses, so much so there is a sellers strike. There is no supply of stock float, as no one is selling hence prices rises month after month.
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Thursday, August 30, 2018
Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's now over 1 month since I published my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 on the 21st of July 2018 which was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Here Are Top Market Predictions from Camp Kotok / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: John_Mauldin
I’m back from Camp Kotok. As always, it was both rejuvenating and enlightening.This year, I quickly sensed a more upbeat mood. There were not that many that were wildly bullish, but most were positive or at least neutral. There weren’t nearly as many bears as I expected. “Cautious optimism” seemed to be the theme.
That led me to refine my own views with a wide variety of participants. Today, I’ll do the same for you.
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Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis of TWM (ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: WavePatternTraders
The recent gyrations between Jun – Aug 2018 appear to count well enough as a running triangle. For those readers that have some knowledge of Elliott Wave, will note that a triangle is a very common pattern for a 4th wave of an impulse wave. I am counting the current decline from April 2018 as a 5th wave of a larger impulse wave that started from the 2016 highs (2016 lows on the Russell 2000).
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Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's now over 1 month since I published my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 on the 21st of July 2018 which was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Tuesday, August 28, 2018
S&P, Russell 2000, and NASDAQ all made new highs together. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (small caps), and NASDAQ all closed at all-time highs together last Friday for the first time since January 2018.
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Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Semi Conductor Stocks Sector Warning or a Buy? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
We began tracking this negative divergence in NFTRH last year as the leadership of two premier Semi Equipment companies began to decelerate vs. the broad sector.
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Monday, August 27, 2018
SPX Making New Highs, But Nearing a Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is making even newer all-time highs, so it’s time to get out the calculator to find what new targets there may be. The next Pivot date is Wednesday, which is day 266 in the Master Cycle, 8 days beyond the mean. It is also a Primary Cycle pivot, which is often associated with Cyclical strength leading up to it. The two red Fibonacci calculations appear to be the most likely, given the short time available to make that high. However, we cannot rule out the top calculation at 2948.70, should there be a panic buying period.
Monday, August 27, 2018
What’s Next for Stocks When the Yield Curve Inverts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Even though the 10 year – 3 month yield curve is the more useful & timely yield curve, the 10 year – 2 year yield curve is still the most popular yield curve. The 10 year – 2 year curve is almost inverted.
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Monday, August 27, 2018
Stock Market Sluggish New High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Limited uptrend
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, August 27, 2018
Stock Market Setting Up For A Bigger Pullback / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers at Technical Traders Ltd. have identified a potential in the markets that many people may have overlooked or are not prepared for. The recent strength in the markets has skewed many opinions toward the bullish perspective as the S&P, DOW, Transports and Nasdaq have all pushed towards new all-time highs.
We are writing this research post to alert our followers that we believe the US Indices and major markets may be setting up for a moderately deep price pullback that could be in excess of 5% or more.
Our proprietary price modeling systems and advanced learning models are warning us that the upside trend is likely still in place, yet there is a growing and stronger potential for a price pullback that could result in a 4~7% pullback in the near future. We want to alert all our followers that we believe an immediate price pullback is setting up and to protect your long positions.
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Monday, August 27, 2018
The FTSE 5 Point Broadening Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – price has moved down off the high and in the process has set up a bearish double top, denoted by the horizontal line. These double tops that form just below the high are generally very bearish as they are with the trend.
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Saturday, August 25, 2018
Financial Markets Status: Precious Metals, Commodities, US & Global Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
A general review of the current status across different asset markets. This is not comprehensive, forward-looking analysis as per NFTRH, but it is an up to the minute summary (as of Friday afternoon).
Precious Metals
Gold, silver and gold stock indexes/ETFs made what I had thought were bear flags yesterday, but today’s reversal painted them as short-term bounce patterns (‘W’ with a higher low in the miners and silver).
This chart of gold (courtesy of Barchart.com) shows a flag breakdown, whipsaw and new closing high for the short-term move. As we’ve noted for weeks now, the Commitments of Traders (CoT) is in a contrary bullish alignment with large Specs all but wrung out of the market (they were fleeced again; don’t believe hype about their increased shorting being some sort of conspiracy). All in all, not bad for the relic. The bounce lives on.
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Saturday, August 25, 2018
Trade War to Continue, Global Debt Default & Higher Interest Rates Unavoidable / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we’ll hear from Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael describes two scenarios for the Fed that may BOTH result in a day of reckoning for the U.S. stock market, explains why he sees no end to the trade wars for at least several months, and also tells us what it will take to the get metals moving to the upside again. Don’t miss a jam-packed and terrific interview with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, gold and silver markets have been attempting a recovery rally this week, and this morning, they have gotten a little help from a weaker dollar.
The gold market traded above the $1,200 level a couple times this week, and as of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,207 an ounce -- up 1.9% for the week now thanks to a rally this morning. Meanwhile, silver has bounced up and down, but has made no real progress in the past week, trading at $14.87 as of this Friday morning recording, rallying today like gold but flat for the week overall.
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