Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Stock Market Fear and Panic Fractal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Late yesterday afternoon I wrote an email entitled “Panic Cycle Shift.” Make sure you read it if you haven’t yet done so.
Early in September I suggested that the market would have 43 “up days” followed by 43 “down days”. That is still correct. Remember that I am referring to calendar days. Now convert that to market days and the result is 30-31 trading days, depending on the placement of weekends and holidays.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Stock Market and Reality Disconnected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The behaviour of financial markets these days is frankly divorced from reality, with value-investing banished. Markets have become distorted by Rumfield-knowns such as interest rate policy and "market guidance", and Rumfield-unknowns such as undeclared market intervention by the authorities. On top of these distortions there is remote investing by computers programmed with algorithms and high-frequency traders, unable to make human value-assessments.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
US Stock Market Top Is Now In Sight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Submissions
Dr. David J Harris writes: SUMMARY:
- In June, the DJIA index signaled that a significant US market top is near and will be reached in the next few weeks or months.
- In July, a new market timing model calculated that the market top is likely to occur in either, the last two weeks of July, a seven week window covering the last four weeks of October and first three weeks of November, or the four week window covering the last two weeks of December and first two weeks of January.
- Analysis of previous market tops and market bottoms shows that these windows of opportunity are close to 100% accurate.
- The market timing model determines that the resulting market drop is likely to be at least 12% and could be as much as 33%.
- Price projection analysis indicates that a rally is possible in late December and that the likelihood of a market top at year end is slightly greater than the likelihood of a market top in October or November.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Institutional Investors Fish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Large and/or institutional investors, your pension funds, your market funds, you name them, have one glaringly obvious and immense Achilles heel that they very much prefer not to talk about. That is, they MUST invest their funds, in something, anything, they can’t NOT invest. They are trapped in the game. They have to roll over debt, investments, all the time.
In today’s markets, they can move into Treasuries, as we see bond funds (and undoubtedly others) do recently, and while that’s already a sign of unrest in the ranks, at the same time it exposes the funds. And not only because everyone knows it won’t allow them to meet the targets they must meet. Oil, gas and gold are unattractive alternatives.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Stock Market Panic Cycle Shift / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
You may recall that earlier this year I had identified several panic cycles. These cycles occur in discreet intervals divisible by 4.3 and multiples of 10.
For example, I had identified the panic Cycle from April 12 to July 5 (86 days) as a panic buying cycle. The next panic buying cycle occurred from August 7 to September 19 (43 days).
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Friday, October 24, 2014
SPX Stock Market Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This afternoon at 1428 hours the SPX peaked and reversed. What is significant about this is that the turn from the bottom was at 1327 hours on October 15, giving us 6 market days in between. The grand total is 43 hours and this may be a print high.
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Thursday, October 23, 2014
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Sharp Rebound as Investors Take Short-Term Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,975 and profit target at 1,875, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Euro, USD, Gold and Stocks According to Chartology / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start off the Wednesday Report by looking at several currencies that broke out today. As you know the Eruo has been one of the weakest currencies out there. Today's breakout of a bear flag confirms there is more downside to come. This first chart is a daily look which shows the Euro formed a H&S top in the first half of this year and broke down sharply in late July. The Euro has been chopping out the blue bear flag for most of October which broke down today with a breakout gap.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Why You Should Always Be Invested in the Stock Market (Even Now) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: On the heels of the worst volatility in nearly 20 years, and more “crash talk” than we’ve heard maybe ever, it’s starting to look like a smart time to hit the eject button and get out of the markets altogether.
In fact, that’s probably the most common question I’m hearing these days:
“Do I really want to be in stocks right now?”
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
The Inevitability of QE / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Clif_Droke
A swan dive in commodity prices followed by the latest stock market correction has investors talking about the “D word” once again. References to deflation abound in the news while economists seriously discuss the possibility of a global economic recession. What, they ask, will it take to arrest the slowdown in the euro zone and China and prevent its coming to U.S. shores? Why central bank intervention, of course!Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Stock Market Turn at Pi / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has broken beneath the lower trendline of its second (lower) Orthodox Broadening top, triggering that formation and giving us a lower target at 1493.80. It has also broken the Ending Diagonal trendline, giving us a minimum decline to 1820.66.
What is more interesting is that the rally turned at almost exactly 1885 minutes from bottom to top. Divide by 60 and we have 31.416 hours…Pi.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Currency War - How to Profit from a Stronger U.S. Dollar / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: The Fed plans to wind down its asset purchases this month, but Japan and the United Kingdom are still buying, full swing.
Meanwhile, the European Union is just looking to get started.
And, while the Fed is expected to begin raising rates next year, Europe and Japan recently pushed theirs below zeroas deflation appears to be the bigger threat.v
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Banks Hold Treasuries and Make Loans / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014
By: BATR
Ever since the 2008 financial collapse, banks have reduced their lending while accumulating U.S. Treasuries. On the surface placing capital into the safest depositor may seem prudent. On the other hand, Why Big Banks Are Suddenly Interested in Talking to You Again? According to Inc, “After years of turning away small-business borrowers, the country's largest banks are now granting one out of five loan applications they receive. The 20 percent benchmark represents a post-recession high for big banks (assets of $10B+). Further, small banks have been approving more than half of the funding requests they receive.”
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Stock Market Probable Pop-n-Drop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket was “saved” once more by central bank intervention as it threatened to break its upward momentum at the 200-day Moving Average.
It is currently resting just beneath its Daily mid-Cycle resistance at 1915.31. That is likely to be the final resistance to this retracement since it is just beneath the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1919.96.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
The REAL Reason Why the Stock Market Turned Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: EWI
The rout in stocks is no "jinx"
In case you've been roving Mars for the past month, you've missed quite a fiasco from the world's leading stock market:
"Since it topped out last month, the Dow has suffered eight triple digit losses� Add it all up, and the Dow has slid about 7.5% percent from its peak, the biggest retreat in more than two years. It also means the Dow has now given back all of its gains for the year -- and then some." (Daily Finance Oct. 15)
Now, according to the mainstream experts, there are 3 key causes for the market's sell-off:
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Stock Market Continues Counter Trend On Cue... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
I thought that we would move higher off the 10% move lower on the S&P 500, with a retrace to around the gap at 1928, or thereabouts. There, of course, can be no exact number, but my feeling was we'd get to 1928, or so, and, thus far, we're making our way up there nicely, but not easily. It shouldn't be easy, and it's not, but, thus far, it is playing out as expected. Of course, we could go somewhat higher or lower than my target. It's just that you have the confluence of gap, moving average, and a 50% retrace, all coming together at that approximate level. When a market wants to do something, it's very hard to deny it. For instance, there was absolutely terrible news from market and economic leader International Business Machines Corporation (IBM).
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Monday, October 20, 2014
Investors Quit Complaining, The Environment is Perfect Right Now / Stock-Markets / US Economy
By: DailyWealth
Steve Sjuggerud writes: Man, I'm tired of the complaining in the last few weeks...
Everyone is worried the U.S. economy is weak... and that stocks therefore have to fall. Everyone sees the recent volatility in the markets as proof of this.
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Monday, October 20, 2014
Stocks Bear Market Indicator Is Off the Mark / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: nvestors are taught that bear markets can't occur unless the Treasury yield curve inverts – that is, unless short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates.
And that can only happen if the Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds rate, which is the short-term rate that the Fed controls.
But that measure may be off the mark this time, and here's why…
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Monday, October 20, 2014
Stock Market Ideal Turning Point is at Hand / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX appears to be letting the clock run out on the rally today. The 200-day Moving Average is the likely target, but there are no assurances that it will get there. I drew the dotted line across the supports and resistance points at 1906.36 to show the natural stopping place for the right shoulder.
Today seems like a snoozer, but the reversal may be a real wake up call. Those who stepped aside from the market may wish to go short again before the close.
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Monday, October 20, 2014
Stock Market Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
From my seat and in light of the price action this past week, I truly find the lack of understanding surrounding Dow Theory amusing. I also find the content from most any article on this subject to be inaccurate and/or typically misleading. Such erroneous articles result from the misunderstandings and/or the lack of quality study of Dow Theory, which in turn makes such articles dangerous to those who read them, as well as being a discredit to Dow Theory. In my experience, virtually 99.9% of all articles written on the subject of Dow Theory are wrong. I think this is because of the scarcity of the original writings by our Dow Theory Founding Fathers and again, the lack of quality research.
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