Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Gold Prices After The End of QE / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The performance of gold obviously depends on the U.S. economic condition and the Fed's future actions. In the short run, the end of QE3 will most likely not change anything and gold will most likely decline on a dollar rally. It is likely to last as long the U.S. central bank credibility is at all-time heights. This is because gold can be seen as the reciprocal of central bank credibility. Thus, when central bank credibility is at a peak, gold is in the dumps. The end of QE3 could even strengthen the belief about the strength of the U.S. economy. After all, Fed would not halt the quantitative easing if the economy was not strong, right? Just look at the economic numbers, say the pundits. Unemployment went down, while GDP grew faster than expected in the third quarter, and oil is historically cheap, which will additionally boost the U.S. economy.

Sunday, December 21, 2014

The Damage Caused By the Oil Bear Will Spread Far and Wide / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: Oil prices continued to fall this week but stock markets shrugged off the disarray this continued to cause in global markets after Janet Yellen whispered soothing words in their ears after the Fed's last meeting of the year on Wednesday. Mrs. Yellen has become a "bull whisperer" – fearful of upsetting the equity market, she cloaks her words in indirection and equivocation in an effort to keep them calm as she prays for an economic lift-off that will take her institution off the hook.

Unfortunately, her patient is likely to be very disappointed, for it would take an economic miracle the likes of which hasn't been seen in this country since the years after the Second World War to deal with the mountain of existing debt and future liabilities that are going to bury us.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Oil Drilling Our Way Into Oblivion / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Oh, that sweet black gold won’t leave us alone, will it? West Texas Intermediate went through some speedbumps Friday, but ended over +5%, though still only at $57. Think them buyers know something we don’t? I don’t either. I see people covering lousy bets. And PPT (and that’s not the one we used to spray our crops with).

The damage done must be epic by now, throughout the financial system, but we’re not hearing much about that yet, are we? We will in time, not to worry. Everyone’s invested in oil, and big time too, and they’ve all just become party to a loss of about half of what both oil itself and oil stocks were worth just this summer.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Gold And Silver Nothing Is Ever As It Seems And No Respite For PMs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

An eminent collapse of the US fiat petrodollar? China and Russia, with their enormous build-up of physical gold over the last several years, waiting in the wings to lead a new gold-backed currency? The growing BRICS alliance to unseat the elite's Western NWO and its banking system?

A growing likelihood on the first question, and no and no to the latter two questions. In fact, the elites are probably doing more to destroy the fiat Federal Reserve "dollar" than any other group or alliance. There has been talk about the US destroying the dollar for at least the past four years. Kyle Bass even made the pronouncement whereby a senior Obama administration official told him, "We're just going to kill the dollar." That is exactly what is happening and coming from "inside information."

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Bullish Reversal in Gold Miners but Metals Remain in Question / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The gold and silver stocks have put in a bullish weekly reversal but Gold and Silver have not confirmed it. The interplay between the metals and the shares has been complicated in recent weeks. Hopefully this missive will make some sense of it as the two groups are sending mixed signals.

Gold and Silver are charted below in weekly candle format. Before this week the metals looked bullish. Each tested support and rebounded strongly towards resistance. However, both metals gave back much of the recent gains. Bulls would say they are correcting and still in position to test resistance. Bears would say the metals failed to reach resistance and are headed to new lows.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Important Development for Bitcoin Traders / Commodities / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

Briefly: short speculative positions, stop-loss at $332, take-profit at $275.

We read an interesting piece on Tech Crunch on how 2014 was difficult for Bitcoin:

Overall creation of bitcoin wallets is up, which is an indication of continued interest from potential buyers. Wallets are files that contain private keys used to unlock the bitcoins within the tool so that you can spend them. It's akin to a physical wallet that holds credit cards.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Gold Stocks to Shine in 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold stocks have suffered a miserable few years, becoming a laughingstock even among contrarians.  But this despised sector’s seemingly-endless downward spiral has left gold stocks vastly undervalued relative to gold, which drives their profits.  The fundamentally-absurd disconnect between gold-stock price levels and gold can’t last.  And it sure looks ready to end, making 2015 the year gold stocks shine again.

Any stock is a fractional ownership stake in a corporation, entitling shareholders to participate in that company’s profits.  So over time, any stock price ultimately reflects a reasonable multiple of these very underlying earnings.  If a stock price falls too low relative to corporate profits, investors step in to buy shares cheap bidding their prices higher.  And the opposite is true if a stock grows too expensive relative to earnings.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Gold and Silver Relative Calm in Wild Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

This week has been extremely volatile for oil, currencies and stock markets. Against this background gold and silver have drifted sideways to slightly lower, which given the dollar's strong performance is almost a positive result.

Along with a collapsing oil price on Monday and Tuesday, the Russian ruble fell from 58 to the USD on Monday to 77 the following day. It was clear that Russian oligarchs were getting out of rubles as fast as they could, hence the steep fall. By yesterday things had calmed down and the ruble was back to the 60.4 this morning. There was a slight frisson of excitement over the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, to be followed by Quadruple Witching today. Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock options all expire on the third Friday of December. The result is the Dow 30 Index rose by 4.3% between Tuesday's opening and last night's close on an enormous bear squeeze.

Friday, December 19, 2014

US Dollar and the Gold Fairy Tale / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Grant Williams writes: On Christmas Eve 1979, 27 days before I became a teenager, in a surburban street in Moseley in Britain’s West Midlands, a group of musicians put the finishing touches on their debut album.

The musicians — Brian Travers, Astro, James Brown (no, not that one), Earl Falconer, Norman Hassan, Mickey Virtue, and twins Ali and Robin Campbell — had a unique approach to the music business.

Eighteen months prior to completing their first album, Ali Campbell and Travers had plastered the streets of Birmingham with leaflets promoting the band, which had taken its name from the document issued to people claiming unemployment benefits from the UK government’s Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS). The name of the form — and thus the band — was UB40.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Why Russia Will Halt the Ruble’s Slide and Keep Pumping Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

The harsh reality is that U.S. shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians, since their costs of production are much higher, says Marin Katusa, author of The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp.

Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.

Friday, December 19, 2014

The Commodities Market Is Not Dying, It’s Just Hibernating / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Submissions

Nicholas Maithya writes: The price of Gold plunged massively in 2014, especially during the second half of the year and based on the current market sentiment, there are fears that things could get worse over the next few quarters. Other popular commodities like Silver and Oil also followed the same trajectory, with Oil in particular trading at some of the lowest levels in recent history. The various ETFs associated with these assets have also followed the same trend as investors continue to shift investments to the equities market.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Oil Prices: A True Black Swan or the Work of Vultures? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Oil prices are struggling to stabilize in the wake of what some are calling a “black swan” event.

It refers to a theory popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a well-known risk analyst and statistician.

A black swan is an outlier, a development that fails to follow any normal pattern.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Gold Price Building Foundations For Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Austin_Galt

Gold has been steadily trending up since its early November low. The Swiss gold vote was expected so it was no surprise to see price turn back up after the initial dip in price. I still believe gold is on the cusp of a much greater rally so let's see where things currently stand.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by
                            Sun Tzu, The Art of War, fifth century BC

When growth slows in capital markets, the bankers’ daisy-chain of credit and debt breaks down; setting in motion defaulting debt which ends in recession, deflation or, in extreme cases, a deflationary depression.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

U.S. Gold Production Declined 7% During First 9 Months of 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jason_Hamlin

I have long argued that gold would bottom around the all-in cost of production and this would provide price support. This is because as the price drops below the cost to produce, miners will be forced to shut down or suspend operations. This reduces supply and lower supply is supportive of prices, assuming demand remains relatively stable. We are finally starting to see signs that gold supplies are declining.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Crude Oil Price: What's Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Today, there is no shortage of opinions about oil.

So why should you bother reading this one?

Because 99% of oil forecasts out there are based on so-called fundamentals. The same "fundamentals" that back in June, when oil cost $107 a barrel, promised even higher prices due to:

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Crude Oil Price - The Doji-generated Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The price of crude oil declined yesterday once again - was the bottom reached yet?

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Gold Roubles - This Is What Gold Does In a Currency Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: John_Rubino

To say that gold is in a bear market is to misunderstand both gold and markets. Gold isn't an investment that goes up and down. It is money in the most basic store-of-value sense. Most of the time it just sits there, and when its price changes in local currency terms that says more about the local currency than about gold.

But when currencies collapse, gold shines.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Opposing Forces At Play In Gold and Silver Precious Metals Complex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Ronald Stoeferle writes: Precious metals had a hard time in 2014. However, this year proved to be not as catastrophic as last year, as the gold price remained in the trading range which was established last year after the waterfall price declines.

The “good” news for gold bulls is that the bottom of the trading range has been tested a third time, in particular on November 10th 2014. Readers undoubtedly remember how the previous two tests took place in June 2013 and on the very last day of 2013.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Gold and Silver Stocks Bottom - Are We There Yet? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Rambus_Chartology

One can only draw so many lines on a chart before they become completely confused on what trendline is actually important. Many will just starting connecting two top points and two bottom points and calling it a pattern. That's not how you find a chart pattern. A chart pattern shows the fight between the bulls and the bears. Lets use a triangle as an example of the fight between the bulls and the bear in an uptrend.

If the stock is in an uptrend the first reversal point will be when the initial top takes place. This can be on any time frame. Next you need to see the bears take control and drive prices lower creating the first reversal point starting at the top. At some point the bears will run out of gas and the bulls come charging back rallying the price backup to another high that is slightly lower than the first reversal point number one high, before they run out of strength to move the stock higher. Once the lower high is in place you can put a number 2 under the first low inside the triangle.