Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The inflation remains low and below the Fed’s target. So, should gold bulls worry about it?The U.S. CPI inflation rate rose by 0.2 percent in September , following a 0.4 percent increase in August. It was the smallest jump since May. The move was driven by a 6.7- percent spike in the cost of used cars and trucks, and it’s the most significant upward change over half a century. The core CPI rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in the preceding month.
On an annual basis, the overall CPI increased 1.4 percent (seasonally adjusted), following a 1.3 percent increase in August. The core CPI rose 1.7 percent, much like in the month prior (or a bit less if we abstract from rounding). Therefore, as the chart below shows, the period of disinflation perhaps ended, but the inflation remains low. It seems that even though the inflation rate has reached the bottom in May or June, the outbreak of high inflation in the near future is unlikely.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes investors should hold a position in silver.
We're still in the early innings of a precious metals bull market.
And if you're wondering whether you need to own some silver, my answer is categorically yes.
It's only a matter of degree.
With silver that's important because it acts like gold, but on steroids.
Silver can languish for extended periods, even if gold moves. But then it tends to play a rapid game of catch-up.
Timing such moves is difficult at best. Instead, it's better to build a silver position on price weakness, then simply sit patiently.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
With the presidential election less than a month away, sector expert Michael Ballanger offers a forecast for the gold and silver markets.
With a mere twenty-six days to the election of the "leader of the free world," of the richest, most powerful country in human history, financial markets are noticeably apprehensive as to outcome and understandably concerned with the reaction of the two deeply divided camps. With the Antifa and Black Lives Matter (BLM) "movements" mobilizing to disrupt at every turn, their ideological opponents carry little in the way of monikers but are passionately anti-BLM and anti-Antifa and even more passionately "pro-American," a descriptive often marching shoulder-to-shoulder with paramilitary and/or white supremacist groups.
The sad part of this misunderstood and misreported conflict is that the 1% elite, empowered by the politicians and the bankers that support them (the "banco-politico cartel"), would have us all believe that this conflict is the ultimate showdown between the conservative forces of law-and-order and the socialist forces of anarchy.
The stark reality is that the vast majority of the 99% that make up the unentitled non-elite, whose role has been to act as doormats upon which the 1% wipe their shoes, have finally had enough. It started with globalization, which shut down the manufacturing core of U.S. industry and shipped their jobs off to China and Mexico, and has culminated in a global pandemic that saw the politico-banco cartel once again enriching, with massive bailouts and liquidity injections, the 1%. This has resulted in all-time highs in stock prices, and wall the while the jobs of the working classes (the "doormats") were not simply transferred; they were terminated.
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Saturday, October 17, 2020
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Today’s beaten-down US dollar is a major short-term risk for gold. For decades this yellow metal has often inversely mirrored the fortunes of the world’s reserve currency. Dollar trends are important trading cues for highly-leveraged gold-futures speculators, who wield outsized influence over gold prices. So an overdue mean-reversion rebound rally erupting in the US dollar will unleash serious gold selling pressure.
Gold has proven the ultimate universal global money for millennia now, and its US-dollar price American speculators and investors follow is simply these currencies’ exchange rate. So flowing and ebbing dollar levels directly impact prevailing gold prices. Gold generally tends to rally when the dollar weakens, then sell off when it strengthens again. The leading dollar benchmark reveals this powerful inverse correlation.
That is the venerable US Dollar Index, which was launched way back in March 1973. This USDX applies a weighted geometric mean to a basket of major world currencies to track the relative value of the US dollar. The Eurozone countries’ euro, Japan’s yen, and the United Kingdom’s pound sterling dominate the USDX commanding 57.6%, 13.6%, and 11.9% of its total weighting. Three other currencies round it out.
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Friday, October 16, 2020
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Biden widened his lead over Trump, while gold jumped above $1,900 again.
According to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden has increased his presidential race advantage. Now, as the chart below shows, he leads by 7 percent.
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Friday, October 16, 2020
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: John_Mauldin
By Justin Spittler : My friend who’s a novice investor asked for advice recently. He was “bargain hunting” for cheap stocks, and trying to decide between buying Kohl’s (KSS) or ExxonMobil (XOM).
I cringed. “Listen,” I told him. “You’re thinking about this all wrong.”
I get where my friend is coming from. From childhood we’re taught to be financially prudent. To seek bargains and avoid spending money on expensive things.
In most areas of life this is smart advice. Drive a reasonable car, live in a reasonable house, book reasonable vacations with your family. But there’s one big problem.
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Thursday, October 15, 2020
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
They say that time travels are impossible. But we just went back to the 1960s! At least in the field of the monetary policy. And all because of a new Fed’s framework. So, please fasten your seat belts and come with me into the past and present of monetary policy – to determine the future of gold!At the end of August 2020, the Fed has modified its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy – for the first time since its creation in 2012. As a reminder, the Fed will now target not merely a 2 percent rate of inflation, but an average inflation rate of 2 percent, which allows overshooting after the periods of undershooting. So, the Fed will try to compensate for periods of low inflation with periods of high inflation . Hence, on average , we will see a more accessible monetary policy and higher inflation - Good news for the gold bulls.
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Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After nearly three weeks of sideways/downward price action in Gold and Silver, our researchers believe both metals have already set up another breakout/rally attempt after breaching downward resistance (shown as the downward sloping CYAN line). This could be another huge opportunity for precious metals traders as the next move higher should prompt a rally above recent highs. That means a target price level in Gold above $2100 and a target price level in Silver above $30.50.
ARE METALS POISED TO RALLY TO NEW HIGHS SOON?
The deep price retracements recently in both Gold and Silver have come from news events. First, the EU Banking Report that destroyed the market on September 21. Then, just recently, the news that President Trump contracted COVID-19. The resilience in both Gold and Silver near these recent lows suggests demand for metals is still skyrocketing – otherwise, we believe much deeper price lows would have been reached.
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Monday, October 12, 2020
A Big Move In Silver: Watch The Currency Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The USD/ZAR chart has been a good predictor for silver rallies. Similar to the US Dollar index, but a bit more accurate or precise. Very important silver bottoms tend to coincide with tops of the USD/ZAR chart.
Below, is a chart of silver as compared with the USD/ZAR chart, to demonstrates this fact:
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Sunday, October 11, 2020
Precious Metals and Commodities Comprehensive / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
For the last 2 days our internet has been down which really makes you appreciate this miracle invention. We’ve had intermittent problems through the years that no one has been able to figure out until today. The phone company finally came to the conclusion that there was a tiny defect in their phone line that would only show up from time to time which made the problem so hard to track down. Today they replaced 1/4 of a mile of telephone line which seems to be working. We’ll know in a few days if this fix is going to work which I can already tell is working.
I would like to start out by looking at the long term weekly combo chart for the PM complex we’ve been following since its inception. I’m out of annotations so you’ll have to use your own imagination where the areas that need a trendline or a breakout symbol occurs.
I just wanted to point out that these are massive 4 year reversal patterns that suggests years of bull market price action. A whole lot of energy has now been stored up in these 4 year trading ranges. Big bull markets don’t start from small reversal patterns but the bigger the bottom the bigger the bull market.
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Sunday, October 11, 2020
Gold Stocks Are Cheap, But Not for Long / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold stocks are "churning out some serious profits that are likely to just keep getting better."
It's not too late for you to buy gold and gold stocks on the cheap.
If you haven't already, you may want to seriously consider it.
That move might set you up for a run over the next few years that could turn into your single best investment…ever.
You see, gold stocks are churning out some serious profits that are likely to just keep getting better.
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Saturday, October 10, 2020
Gold Miners Ready to Fall Further / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It didn’t take long for the mining stocks to turn south once again. No wonder, given that their breakdown was more than verified.
Additionally, they also got bearish support from gold, the stock market, and the USD Index, which also confirmed their decisive move. For more details, let’s take a closer look at the chart below.
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Friday, October 09, 2020
A complete paradigm shift will make gold the generational trade / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
‘A complete paradigm shift will make gold the generational trade’
As we turn the calendar to October, often a daunting month for financial markets, the same toxic mix that has bedeviled the global economy for most of 2020 remains in full force – the pandemic, the crippled economy, the money printing, and the disheveled politics. For its part, gold held up under the pressure of a September consolidation that threatened at one point to become a full correction, but the selling dissipated, cautious buying re-entered the market and the price went back over the $1900 mark. October always brings a sense of foreboding given its history, and we can only hope that the rest of the month will go significantly better than the start. Gold tends to move to the forefront when things go bump in the night, but then again, gold has been in the forefront for most of 2020 – prompting some analysts to proclaim the launch of a new leg in its long-term secular bull market.
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Thursday, October 08, 2020
Gold vs. Silver – Absolutely No Comparison / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
In the five months between March and August this year, the price of silver increased from a fourteen-year low of $11.77 per ounce to a seven-year high of $29.26. That is a whopping gain of one hundred sixty-three percent.
Meanwhile, gold’s price rose from its low of $1472 per ounce to a recent high of $2061. That represents a gain of forty percent, which is certainly a handsome number. Nevertheless, silver’s performance outshone gold by a ratio of four-to-one.
However, five months doesn’t tell the whole story. For those who were and are, hopeful that this is just the beginning of silver’s day in the sun, be warned. Looking at the bigger picture historically, silver can’t hold a candle to gold.
We referred above to silver’s price outperformance relative to gold for the most recent five months. Here is a chart that shows that same performance within the context of the past five years…
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Thursday, October 08, 2020
Gold: Why You Should Be Wary of the "Consensus" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: EWI
Recent sentiment toward the yellow metal matched peak 2011 levels
You may recall investor optimism that attended gold's then record high of $1921.50 in September 2011.
A Gallup poll from that time period captured the prevailing sentiment. The Sept. 2, 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said a monthly publication which provides forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, said:
Perhaps the strongest sign of a gold top is a recent Gallup poll showing Americans now consider gold to be the best long-term investment. Gallup parsed the survey by gender, age, income level and political affiliation and in every single subset, gold won out. ... Everyone is onboard gold's uptrend. It is surely a sign of exhaustion.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2020
Markets Chop & Grind: Gold, Stocks & Commodities / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Whether the market is foreign or domestic, equity, commodity or metal the grind is on. Speaking of grind, the one in gold has been expected as the metal builds out its big picture Handle to the bullish Cup with an objective that is much higher. Let’s take a look at a few NFTRH charts to gauge the grind in several markets and by extension, the grind many feel on their nerves these days. It’s not a time to make money. It’s a time to preserve gains and patiently position.
For gold the grind would be the making of a Handle after the Cup’s key higher high to the 2011 high.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2020
Silver Price Great Buy Spot Ahead of Second Big Upleg / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at silver and explains why he believes it's a good time to build positions.
More than a few traders are confused about what is going on with silver here after its recent reaction, but when we look at its long-term chart the situation quickly becomes clear. So we will start this update by looking at silver's 13-year chart in order to get big picture perspective.
On the latest 13-year chart we see that only broke out of its giant 7-year long base pattern as recently as July. The high-volume surge that occurred upon its breaking out was a sign that it was genuine. What has happened in recent weeks is that it has reacted back to test support at the upper boundary of the base pattern, which is normal. In the last update we were too optimistic in thinking it would continue higher, but the good news is not just that the post-breakout reaction is perfectly normal, but that this reaction back to support is a healthy development that is "recharging the batteries" for the next upleg.
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Monday, October 05, 2020
Gold Price Limited Downside, Big Upside / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts recent movements in the gold market and what they may indicate going forward.
In the last Gold Market update we had thought that it might break out upside from the Triangle that was forming, mainly because of its positive Accumulation line coupled with favorable seasonal factors, but instead, after moving sideways for a while, it broke down, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. The good news is that no technical damage was incurred because of this breakdown, as gold is well above important support and well above its rising 200-day moving average. So the fact is that that this drop has actually improved its technical condition by completely unwinding its earlier overbought condition.
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Monday, October 05, 2020
Gold Price Is Doing It Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Gold is trading really close to its 2011 all-time high. This is obviously a critical level for the future of gold prices.
Historically gold in US dollars often clears significant all-time highs only some time after significant currencies like the Euro and British pound.
This is mainly due to US dollar behaviour during times of significant risk aversion, like we’ve had this year and 2008, for example.
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Sunday, October 04, 2020
Gold And Silver Stocks Correction Almost Exhausted, Time To Buy / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Bob_Kirtley
Introduction
Today, we will take a look at the damage inflicted on this sector by the recent sell-off and try to ascertain just what lies ahead for the precious metals stocks involved in gold and silver mining.
We will commence with look at the charts for gold and silver prices followed by a comparison of gold’s progress versus that of the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) and conclude with what lies in store for the Precious Metals stocks in the medium term.
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