Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 02, 2015
Will New Year Bring New Bitcoin Developments? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: no speculative positions.
BitMEX, a Bitcoin derivatives exchange will post a Bitcoin volatility index, which will be a measure of the magnitude of change in the price of the cryptocurrency, we read on CoinDesk:
Derivatives exchange BitMEX will publish an index on 5th January that it hopes will become the bitcoin world's version of the VIX– the so-called 'fear index' that is used to gauge uncertainty in the wider financial markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Bitcoin Price Could Move Down / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: no speculative positions.
Looking back at Bitcoin in 2014, we see that this was not a kind year for the currency, at least not in terms of the price. Bitcoin has gone down some 50% (!) since the beginning of the year or some 70% (!) since December 2013. Not particularly encouraging results, and even Bitcoin-focused websites make mention of them. On CoinDesk, we read:
If the story of bitcoin in 2013 was its meteoric rise in price, which saw it hit a peak of over $1,100 in November, then the tale of bitcoin's price this year is one of plummeting from those heights.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
The 5 Phases of Bitcoin Adoption / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: John_Mauldin
What will it take for Bitcoin to gain broad adoption and become the foundation of a new global financial system?
Worth Wray sat down with Barry Silbert, founder of the Bitcoin Investment Trust, to discuss. As one the most active venture capitalists in the industry (with investments in over 30 Bitcoin-related portfolio companies through the Bitcoin Opportunity Corp.), Barry has gone all-in on Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related businesses.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 28, 2014
Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Oil
Oil has continued to crash throughout December but I suspect there is now only marginally lower to go with the final low imminent.
Let’s investigate using the monthly and daily charts.
Friday, December 26, 2014
2015 Could Be Ford's Best Year Ever / Currencies / US Auto's
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon writes: I've always been a "car guy."
Back in my high-school, college, and twentysomething years, the term was "motorhead."
I liked to soup up cars, did a bit of drag racing, and restored several antiques and classics with my Dad.
So I know cars.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Divergence and Deflation Dminated Forex Markets in 2014 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: MahiFX
For the forex markets 2014 can be largely summed up in just two words: Divergence and Deflation. It was also the year of the USD, which enjoyed a spectacular rally.
The USD index was around 80 at the end of December 2014 and by the end of December 2015 it was 89.60 with it really finding its momentum from June onwards.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 21, 2014
BItcoin and Altcoins in 2015 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mark_Blair
One: Bitcoin has been stuck for a while in a sort of ‘deflationary spiral.’ This means that commercial adoption by companies like Microsoft and Time has kept Btc’s price DOWN: no one wants to sell at this price coin that they (a) paid more for, and (b) can clearly see will rise greatly in value.
The Mining Thing – whereby miners tend to sell now rather than later (to pay for electricity) – remains an aspect.
Saturday, December 20, 2014
The Link between the Ruble and Keynes / Currencies / Russia
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On March 3, 2014, the United States went to war with Russia. That’s when the U.S. first imposed sanctions. And, yes, sanctions are nothing more than war by non-military means. Then, on November 11 Russia committed a major misstep. It floated the ruble. Since then, the ruble hasn’t floated on a sea of tranquility. It has plunged in lockstep with oil — by about 25% and its volatility has soared to around 65%.
The ruble’s plunge means that Russian imports will be more expensive and exports more competitive. This combination will help keep Russia’s current account positive, which will offset some of Russia’s massive capital flight.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2014
Cheap Oil Good for Consuming Countries, but won't help EUR or JPY / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: MahiFX
Cheap oil is good for the economies of the US, Europe and Japan and the recent plunge in prices should support the USD, but for the EUR and JPY the dynamics are more nuanced.
The interpretation many commentators are drawing from plunging oil and commodity prices is that the global economy is slowing and that deflation will become more persistent. However, if the global economy is slowing – cheaper oil will be a good tonic. And low energy prices are actually a form of good deflation for consuming countries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Euro Succumbs to ECB QE Expectations and FOMC / Currencies / Euro
By: Dan_Norcini
Now that the dust from today's wild ride, we can take a look-see how the Euro fared. In watching the initial reaction to the actual FOMC statement itself, the Euro began to move well off its session lows. It reflected the confusion that was in the minds of traders (there was certainly a lot of that in my mind when I read the statement) who felt that it struck an extremely dovish theme at initial glance. That threw same water on the fire for those expecting a sooner rather than later shift in policy expectations for the FOMC in regards to raising interest rates.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
John Williams: A Downhill Run for the U.S. Dollar in 2015 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Rosy GDP numbers may have cheered the masses, but John Williams of ShadowStats.com says we're a long way from prosperity. In this interview with The Gold Report, Williams debunks the myth of economic recovery and warns that we still have serious debts to settle. That is why he is recommending caution in 2015 to preserve purchasing power and maintain your standard of living.
The Gold Report: Your hyperinflation report predicted 2014 would be dominated by economic distress, financial crisis and panics. Were you surprised by the performance of the economy this year?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
U.S. Dollar Trend Forecast 2015 - Video / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will the US Dollar collapse in 2015? Or will the bull market soar to new highs? Find out in this video analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
U.S. Dollar Collapse? USD Index Trend Forecast 2015 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For as many years as I can remember and 2014 has been no exception, the most vocal mantra that can often be heard is one of warnings of an always imminent U.S. Dollar collapse as a consequence of a myriad of highly convincing arguments such as a soaring debt mountain, deficit, rampant money printing, demographics, rise of China, death of the petro-dollar etc.. However the dollar trend of recent years shows that the dollar in actual fact is little changed, where even the recent breakout only put the USD barely 4% outside of its multi-year trading trading range of between 85 to 79 and still within its longer-term trading range of 89 to 75.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Bitcoins - Cryptocurrencies and a Wider Regression Theorem / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: MISES
Peter St. Onge writes: The debate whether or not cryptocurrencies are “money” has put a spotlight on the Menger-Mises Regression Theorem. As stated, the theorem posits that a non-fiat money must have had value before it became a money. Some have used currencies’ lack of antecedent value as knocking it off the money pedestal or as forcing cryptocurrencies to ignominiously piggyback on fiat currencies’ own regressions.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Spare U.S. Dollars / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Last week I wrote that contrary to the prevailing mood US dollar strength could reverse at any time. This week I look at another aspect of the dollar, which almost certainly will become a significant source of supply: a global shift out of it by foreign holders.
As well as multinational corporations that account in dollars, there are non-US entities that use dollars purely for trade. And so long as governments intervene in currency markets, governments end up with those trade dollars in their foreign reserves. Some of these governments are now pushing hard to replace the dollar, having seen its debasement, which is beyond their control. This has upset nations like China, and that is before we speculate about any geopolitical angle.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2014
USD Strength Could Trigger Emerging Market Crisis Sending it Even Higher / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MahiFX
It seems impossible for the USD to move in any right direction for emerging markets with it blamed for causing inflation when it falls and now it’s the culprit for a potential crisis in some developing countries which have borrowed in the US currency. The bad news for them is that the greenback is likely to carry on strengthening.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2014
How the Rising U.S. Dollar Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
This week’s Outside the Box continues with a theme that I and my colleague Worth Wray have been hammering on for some time: the very real potential for a rising dollar to trigger the next global financial crisis.
We are concerned about the consequences of multi-speed economic growth around the world and the growing divergence between major central banks. In our opinion, if these trends persist, they likely mean (1) a major US dollar rally, (2) a rapid unwind of QE-induced capital flows to emerging markets, (3) a hard slide in fragile emerging-market and commodity-exporter currencies, and (4) financial shocks capable of ushering in a new global financial crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2014
GBP/USD - Breakout Or Fakeout? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the initial jobless claims in the week ending December 6 dropped by 3,000 to 294,000, beating forecast. Additionally, the U.S. Commerce Department showed that retail sales increased by 0.7% last month, beating expectations for a gain of 0.4%, while core retail sales (without automobile sales), increased by 0.5% in November, surpassing forecasts for a 0.1% gain. These bullish numbers supported the greenback and pushed GBP/USD lower, but the pair is still trading close to the key resistance line. What's next?
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Bitcoin Might Not Be Money, but Cryptocurrencies are the Way of the Future / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Kevin Dowd, a long-time friend and eminent free-banking authority, set his sights on Bitcoin in the book he published this summer: New Private Monies: A Bit Part Player?. His work delivers a refreshingly accurate and straightforward assessment of Bitcoin, ignoring the hype which surrounds it.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
U.S. Dollar Long/Short Position / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In the context of the gold price, many relate the net long/short position in the US.$ as an influence on the gold price. To a small extent this may be true, but not, in our opinion, to an extent that actually affects the gold price.