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Crimea, Ukraine War, Czar Putin Tightening Grip Over Police State Russia for New Dynasty

Politics / Russia Mar 16, 2014 - 02:40 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


The Crimean referendum at the point of several thousand Russian guns is typical of what to expect from a totalitarian police state as those that oppose don't vote out of fear whilst those that do vote have no choice but to vote for Russian annexation also out of fear of being labeled as un-patriotic based on propaganda of a mythical 'great' past under the Soviet Union when the truth is that the Soviet Union was a police state of the worst kind that held 99.9% of its population in the grip of perpetual terror of what the state could do to them if they did not obey.

Inevitable Ukraine Civil War

Crimea has already been annexed in all but name, South and East Ukraine are next on Putin's radar as Russian armies totaling more than 150,000 troops and heavy equipment have been building up on the borders for several weeks, ready to enter on an instigated pretext of defending Russian populations and likely will follow soon after todays (Sunday 16th March) Crimea Russia annexation referendum.

The people of Crimea have been given one of two choices in voting to -

a. declare independence from Ukraine

b. join Russia

So given the options available it is not surprising that most who do actually turn out to vote, have no choice but to vote for Russia, especially as the Crimean arm of the FSB, Russian states secret police have been busy distilling fear in the population as to what is likely to happen to anyone that shows dissent and does not back Russian annexation.

As I write there are reports that Russian military helicopters and troops have already started to deploy themselves out of Crimea and several kilometres into Ukraine who are likely preparing the ground for a full scale invasion in the days following the referendum by clearly aiming to seize areas of Ukraine so as to make Crimea a more viable state i.e. water supplies, power plants and the railway network.

My series of articles in the lead up to the Russian invasion of Crimea made it clear that Russian military intervention was inevitable and that Ukraine would be dismembered in three stages, starting with Crimea then soon followed by south east Ukraine.

21 Feb 2014 - Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016, Scottish Independence Could Trigger Balkanisation of UK

What was unimaginable a few weeks ago has now become a crisis situation of mounting deaths, where with each death Ukraine takes a further step towards leaping over the edge of and into the abyss of where the likes of Syria stands today, as the consequence of what happens when nations rip themselves apart.

Ukraine tearing itself apart has huge implications for european stability as the conflict risks sparking unrest in bordering states most of which have their own separatists movements, especially Russia which therefore looks set to intervene militarily.

24 Feb 2014 - Scottish Independence Economic Consequences for England, UK, Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016?


The real problem of Scottish Independence is as I have highlighted several times in recent articles is that it would open up a pandora's box that would encourage other parts of the UK to start their own separatist movements which would disrupt economic activity right across the UK, and that is the real danger of Scotland leaving the UK, and not its net economic impact on the UK.

Ukraine illustrates what tends to happen when countries start to tear themselves apart as peaceful demonstrations in Ukraine's capital city Kiev of barely a few weeks ago have fast descended into chaos towards outright civil war as several regions in the north-west such as Lviv declare independence, whilst the south-east stands behind its democratically elected President who fled the capital with loyal security forces barely 24 hours ago.

04 Mar 2014 - Czar Putin's Annexation of Crimea Ukraine, Lesson for Independent Scotland?

The ease to which the Russian military descended upon Crimea and several eastern parts of Ukraine reeks of pre-planning of several several weeks if not months. Therefore Russia is not just reacting to events in Kiev but will likely have orchestrated the whole build up including the events that saw the Berkut special police open fire on protestors in Kiev, as all part of Putin's plan for the dismemberment of Ukraine before Ukraine forms closer ties with the European Union, ultimately joining the EU and NATO.

Russia's invasion of Crimea which given the continuing build up on east Ukraine's border that is is said to number more than 150,000 troops and equipment will likely culminate in a wholesale invasion and land grab of approx 1/3rd of Ukrainian territory.

Meanwhile whilst we should always take western mainstream press reporting with a giant pinch of salt, nevertheless the degree to which RT (Russian Tyranny) News engages in newspeak is on a whole different level that wholesale swallows the vomit of lies that spew out Czar Putin's mouth in justification of the invasion of Ukraine, where NONE of Czar Putin's statements are backed by any facts on the ground.

The bottom line is that no one that appears on Russian Tyranny (RT) News has any credibility as they are effectively on the payroll of Czar Putin's propaganda ministry to pump out worthless garbage, be it the likes of Max Keiser pumping the Bitcoin crypto-scam in an attempt at under-mining the dollar or a myriad of RT News presenters justifying the invasion of Ukraine with bare faced lies.

Weak Western Sanctions of No Consequences to Russia

Meanwhile western politicians have been busy issuing the threat of weak sanctions such as making it more difficult to gain visa's or move money around the western capital markets. However it is inconceivable that anyone country in the west, even the American Empire would consider any sought of military action in the defence of Ukraine for the truth is the West (US, UK, France) only attack militarily weak states that have already been greatly diminished due to civil war and sanctions before the requisite 'shock and awe' air strikes ahead of ground invasions, especially as the West already knows which weapons the targeted nation has because they tend to have sold the weapons to them in the first place so know what and where to hit.

The fact is the current Russian invasion underway in Ukraine on the pretext of defending the Russian speaking / ethnic population whilst ILLEGAL still has greater moral authority than the US and UK invasions of the likes of Iraq and a myriad of other incursions across the world that tend to wholly be on the basis of outright LIES. So the west has NO moral high ground as the likes of George Bush and Tony Blair instead of facing trials for war crimes in the Hague are free to enjoy themselves as if the hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqi's don't count as human beings.

The bottom line is that the United States and its British and France Poodles squandered the advantages they had when the U.S. was a hyper power, instead they showed all tin pot dictators that International law does not matter and that the only thing they need to have is a few nuclear weapons and then they would be free to do whatever they want to, that is the lesson learned by not just Russia or China but all emerging nuclear states such as North Korea, Iran and Israel...

This is proving a very painful lesson for Ukraine that gave up its own Soviet era nuclear arsenal 20 years ago in exchange for what clearly was a worthless scrap of paper as the Russians are showing themselves to be the true neo-nazis who under the guise of propaganda seize territory Stalin / Hitler style.

Whilst the argument oftem heard is that all that Russia is doing is what the UK and US have already done countless times, as though that justifies anything where my opinion is that ALL of those responsible, Bush, Blair, Putin AND their thousands of henchmen should be standing trial for war crimes in the Hague. ALL OF THEM ! Perhaps even Obama, despite probably being the weakest U.S. President since 1776?

What Will Happen Next?

Where Russia is concerned if Crimea can breakaway from Ukraine then so should Chechnya be allowed to breakaway from Russia, for Chechnya was independant following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, having successfully beaten the Russian army during the 1994-1996 war until the second Chechen war starting in 1999 that flattened the Capital city Grozny and most of the the rest of Chechnya into submission, killing about 17% of the Chechen population. That is what it means to attempt to gain Independence from Putin's Russia.

Therefore Russia's actions in Chechnya will likely act as a blueprint for what lies in store for much of Ukraine, it's capital will likely come to resemble the Grozny rubble of 10 years ago. For the truth is that Putin and his secret police henchmen could not careless about sanctions for they are immune from their consequences as they could not care less if the Russian people suffer. The Russian people too will have suffered far greater hardships in past decades than which a few billion dollars of sanctions will achieve.

All that sanctions will achieve is for Putin's regime to consider that now it has nothing to lose so will seek to redraw most of Russia's western borders with former Soviet states such as the Baltic nations, any neighbouring states with significant number of ethnic Russian's or Russian speakers will be on the target list.

As things stand it does not look as though the West is going to do anything to stop Russia from annexing Crimea which WILL set in motion the annexation of many more bordering regions far beyond that of Ukraine.

Russian Police State

The real goal of Czar Putin is to further enslave the people of Russia after more than a decade of repression that followed a decade of increasing freedoms in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union where slowly overtime all of those freedoms gained are being systematically whittled away as Czar Putin looks destined to go even a step further than the totalitarian Soviet state, as today his FSB henchmen have far more invasive technology on their side, all without the scrutiny of a quasi independant free press in the West. Therefore the real losers of the Ukraine war will be the Russian people as they will be increasingly living in FEAR of the state that can erase anyone at any time for any form of perceived dissent.

Russia appears destined to become one giant gulag under Czar Putin.

Russian Tyranny (RT) News Propaganda

The FSB's propaganda arm's such as RT News that infects may western nations airwaves with its relentless flawless english speaking soul selling presenters diatribe that magnifies western social problems whilst remaining blind to the far greater social crisis in the russian federal cesspit have been relentless in painting a propaganda picture in Ukraine of one of Neo Nazis having seized power in Kiev that the Russian people are being brainwashed with near 24 hours a day across all Russian broadcast channels where Russian presenters can literally be seen frothing at the mouth as they try to out do one another in an attempt to placate their FSB media monitors, lest they be perceived as not being patriotic enough.

Meanwhile many westerners enlightened by RT magnifying glass exposure of their own corrupt politicians have apparently let their guard down and have been taken in by RT Newspeak on the Ukrainian crisis by statements such as Crimea was once part of Russia, when the truth is that any nation can make the SAME claim about any neigbouring nations territory!

Just look at how Europe's borders have changed over the past 100 years let alone past 1000 years. Even the UK has seen the border between England and Scotland change numerous times over the past 1000 years, therefore England could a decade after Scottish Independence justify annexation of pro UK parts of Scotland in open revolt demanding their own local referendums to rejoin the UK, justified by referring to historic maps that show that at one time those areas had been a part of England, something that the SNP fanatics need to consider that Scotland rather than gaining independence instead could become a rump state of its present size.

Therefore once you open a Pandora's box of allowing regions to secede either by truly democratic means or Putin style at the barrel of about 10,000 guns, the consequences will be far beyond that which anyone can imagine at the time.

New Cold War?

In terms of wider consequences the clear risks are of another resources wasting cold war that could swallow several hundreds of extra billions of dollars spent on the military and state security apparatus each year that rather than protecting western citizens would seek to further enslave them.

Who Will be Next to be Annexed After Crimea, Ukraine ?

Putin's FSB henchmen statements that Russia reserves the right to defend Russian speaking peoples where ever they may be. Given that 20 million Russian's have already fled the Russian police state over the past 20 years then it means virtually any european nation could fall under the threat of such instigated actions, and not just those that neighbour Russia such as the Baltic states for several hundred's of thousands have settled in London, carving out enclaves of Russian speaking populations that just like Crimea could during the balkanisation of the UK following a vote for Scottish Independence prompt such declarations some 20 years down the road from Czar Putin's successors.

21 Feb 2014 - Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016, Scottish Independence Could Trigger Balkanisation of UK

The Balkanisation of Britain

Alex Salmond and his merry band of scottish nationalists quest for dominance over a small part of the Island of Britain have failed to calculate that they will no longer have Westminister to blame for this, that, or other latest socialist deficit spending induced crisis. Which implies that the first port of call for disintegration will likely be in Scotland itself, as a vote for Independence at best would only marginally carry more than 50% of the votes. Therefore the Scottish nationalist government would within a couple of years start to hear highly vocal demands from parts of Scotland to rejoin the United Kingdom, the refusal of which could trigger the start of civil conflict, which as we have seen in Ukraine and elsewhere that it does not take much for crisis to spiral out of control.

As for the rest of the UK, unfortunately Scotland attempting to tear itself away from the United Kingdom would set in motion a chain of events that would destabilise the whole Island of Britain as many separatist movements would be emboldened to exaggerate their own sense of injustice mostly based on semi-mythical histories and as remedy seek their own autonomous or even independent states, such as Wales, Cornwall, Mercia and off course heavily subsidised Northern Ireland.

Scottish independence would result in increasingly chaos across the Island, as growing civil unrest would spread as a contagion infecting many other regions of Britain.

The first consequences of the start of UK fragmentation would be in the economic arena as regions would seek to exert greater autonomy and thus increasingly implement differing rules and regulations that would disrupt economic activity that would further accelerate the breakup of the Union as regions would continuously become poorer thus blame others for their circumstances and see further separation as the solution.

The European Union fears this which is why senior EU politicians have been lining up one after another to state that contrary to SNP propaganda, an Independant Scotland would not be fast tracked into the EU, for they understand that just as a disintegrating Ukraine would destabilise the whole eastern european region so would a disintegrating UK destabilise many western EU nations such as Spain, France, Belgium and Italy all of whom have their own separatists movements.

It would be difficult, if not impossible, for Scotland to join the European Union - European commission president José Manuel Barroso

The bottom line is that Scottish Independence would open a Pandora's box that would result in a state of Britain that is far removed from the rose tinted glasses picture that the likes of the SNP are painting today, because the UK has always been MORE than the SUM of its parts. Therefore a fragmented UK will be far LESS in EVERY respects than that which the UK is today.

Putin's Family Dynasty

An ageing 61 year old Putin is laying the groundwork for a new Czarist family dynasty to take over the levers of the state security apparatus from where he will leave off when he eventually slips into darkness for eternity. Exactly who his children are is a closely guarded state secret much as we have seen in other dictatorships such as North Korea, where exactly who would succeed is a closely guarded secret unknown near the time of pass over of powers (funeral), and so it will be for Russia where in the final months of Czar 'Vlad' Putin's brutal reign we will start to see his successor emerge, probably an unknown nameless son who will follow in his fathers goose steps.

However what Vlad Putin fears is Russia's history of dealing with its Czars, therefore it is not a done deal that the Putin dynasty would last unless Czar Putin has completed the trend of creating a North Korean-esk police state for that is the only way his dynasty will survive, as dissent will not be an option else it risks replicating what is taking place in Syria today.

The bottom line is that annexation of Crimea will just be the start of an Russian east european border war that could last a decade. Wars without end are good for justifying an ever expanding police state.

The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact. - George Orwell

UK Housing Market Ebook Update

The UK housing market ebook is now due to be completed by the end of this month (March 2014) as it contains for more depth and breadth than the sections on analysis and trend forecasts. The ebook now includes extensive guides on home buying, selling, value increasing improvements & maintenance far beyond that which were originally envisaged and hence the delay in completion.

However, given the time critical nature of the content excerpted analysis including the detailed trend forecasts were posted online in 2 parts on the 30th of December 2013:

These articles were soon followed up by 2 concise youtube videos:

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my latest analysis and to be able to download the ebook on release.

Source and Comments:

Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2014 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, stocks, housing market and interest rates. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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16 Mar 14, 10:20
Putn Hitler

Adolph Hitler took over the Sudetenland in 1937/38. Putin is doing exactly the same thing, using exactly the same tactics, over exactly the same reasons. Between this Stalin wanna-be and the un-qualified inept socialist in the White House, I fear the cold war has started anew.

16 Mar 14, 12:26
Crimea Ruled from Moscow

Mr. Putin believes he needs to create a clear external enemy to mobilize Russia. Western approaches have not worked. The elite that emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union have robbed the country blind with capital flight at $20 billion per month while Russia has sunk ever deeper into dependency on its gas and oil trade with the EU and China. If the West imposes sanctions and seizes Russian assets the message will be clear - the days of funneling Money out of Russia are over. Russia will finally have to get down to work to build its economy. If capital flight is reduced dramatically, the strategy will have started. Whether it works or not will be seen whether massive infrastructure projects can serve to restructure the economy. Crimea was ruled from Moscow while it was part of Ukraine. The form of rule will not change. The desires of the Crimean people were never a real factor in this gambit by the leader of Russia.

16 Mar 14, 14:39
Russian Fail Yet Again!

Before he shuttles off this mortal coil clown prince Putin will become familiar with the concept of pyrrhic victory, and find out the hard way what many military strategists already know, that it is possible to win battles but still lose the war. Russia's current attempt at empire will not be any more successful than the last one. We should not get too hot under the collar ourselves because A. As you say we have no moral high ground anyway. B. We are limited in our range of responses. The best action is to give Putin all the rope he needs to hang himself. However, with nutcases like John MaCain around who obviously love the idea of never ending war, I do not think it certain that common sense will prevail.

16 Mar 14, 14:49
America Broke Blame Putin

The US does not give a rat's butt about Crimea or Ukraine, and never has. We are only pretending to care so we can provoke Putin into an Economic War so we can have someone to blame for another stock market crash.

You see, we've been pumping too much freshly printed money from the Federal Reserve to artificially prop up the stock market, and the big money investors need to take profit, only thing now is, if they all rush to take profits and sell, nobody is left to buy since middle America is still broke or out of work. Now comes Putin, we can blame him for the "crash".

17 Mar 14, 09:19
Why can Kosovo separate but not Crimea?

I am no supporter of Putin or Russia, in fact I look forward to their inevitable population decline, but the Afghan and Iraq elections were held with American guns pointed at the citizens, as were the Kosovo elections.

Why can Kosovo separate but not Crimea?

To hear an Englishman complain about Russia invading a nation is silly...I believe there is 22 nations the English have not invaded. I assume some of the elections in the other 180 were held with guns drawn.


17 Mar 14, 14:05
Russia Article


I used to appreciate your articles but what you put together below is out of anything serious. You sound like a repeating puppet of Obama's lies. The media in the west speak with ONE voice and this is blaming Russia for the events in the Ukraine. But this does not bother you. One voice must be the truth! Hahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!! Do you believe that shit?!

The "revolution" was paid by the USA as the first "orange" revolution years ago. See Nuland calls and many other proofs. We don't need to discuss about Yanukovich but he was ELECTED! The lethal shoots against the militant protesters have very likely come from members for the new "government" (this is a joke, not elected LOL). See the Ashton phone call. But that will not fit into your tiny world, right? The west is good, the east bad, per definition.

I personally appreciate RT as a different news source against the wall of propaganda. Seems that you are overwhelmed by propaganda. Too bad for you but not all are that stupid!

Crimea has for nearly 300 years been Russian territory and is populated with over 60% by Russians. But I think I speak against a blind wall. I don't care. Stay with your economic analyses and let your fingers away from things where you don't have the slightest clue - geopolitics.

17 Mar 14, 20:11
Russia Neo Nazi State

In Russia its all about Russian ethnicity, if your not an ethnic russian then you cannot be russian, just as in Nazi Germany it was all about German ethnicity, if you were not ethinically German than you could not be German.

But offcourse it starts with non ethinic Russians, then the dissidends, then the disabled an eventually ends up with 99% being the enemy! Russia is well along this path towards totalitarianism.

LEARN the lesson from history!

Nazi Russia, Nazi Germany, Nazi Israel !!!

You don't appease tyrants. This is not going to end well.

Enjoy bowing before Czar Putin, but be careful you don't get your heads chopped off, but offcourse most Russians want to leave Russia for the West as approx 20 million have already done so!



17 Mar 14, 20:21
Russia v US

I have to say that I agree with JK1 on this subject.

The US started the Ukrainian revolt in order to extend the NATO borders and to make a grab at Russian energy. I just cannot see what other option that Putin had but to act exactly as he has done. If he had let the US grab Crimea (and make no mistake Ukraine would be under US control) then the Russians would have lost the Black Sea ports and handed the region to effective US control. Putin could not let that happen and why should he.

And whether there were guns in Crimea or not, there is absolutely no doubt that the vast majority of the population DO want to re-join Russia.

The hypocrisy of the West knows no bounds. If it suits us (Falkland Islands, Syria, Libya, Iraq etc) then we back the people against their governments - but if it does not (Saudi, Bahrain, Ukraine)we back the governments(and in the case of Ukraine an unelected arguably "terrorist" government) against the will of the people.

The West has no moral authority left. In fact I think Russia has far more than us (and to think I used to vote Conservative!)

17 Mar 14, 20:25
Czar Obama

To Nadeem

Frankly I fancy my chances a lot more with Czar Putin than with Czar Obama. I actually have a lot of respect for Putin but absolutely none for Obama. Putin has proved to be a great strategist and a statesman (preventing US involvement in Syria etc). That cannot be said of anyone in the current US regime.

17 Mar 14, 20:35
Obama or Putin

The question for ordinary people is whether it is better to live under a weak president or a strong dictator ?

Who would you fear ?

Obama the pussy or Putin the monster ?



17 Mar 14, 20:42
What about Chehnya

We saw Russia / Putins true colours when Chechnya voted for independance, the russian tanks rolled in and flattened the country over more than a decade of war, killing 17% of its population. Thats the truth about Russia!

What do you think will happen to Crimea a decade down the road when they chose to rejoin a prosperous Ukraine ? Yeh the tanks will roll in and flattent Crimea!



17 Mar 14, 20:53


I am not trying to justify everything Putin (or any leader) has done but the difference to me is that Russia has/had legitimate reasons to intervene in both Chechnya and Crimea as they are on its borders, whereas the US intervenes throughout the world at whim in an attempt to influence/enforce the US agenda for world "dollar" government (see PNAC etc). Just China and Russia stand in the way and are therefore, the mortal enemies of the US.

Obama might be a puppet, but the arguably insane regime that he fronts is incredibly dangerous to the future of this world.

18 Mar 14, 00:25
Insanity all round

The implicit theme that the insanity of Putin is somehow a desirable or even necessary counterpoint to the insanity of the U.S.A/N.S.A is not one I can agree with. Personally I think we could do with less insanity all round! If the people of Crimea really want to be part of Russia then that is their funeral, and it will be a funeral believe me. Putin is leading Russia into disaster not because of any retaliation from the west, which will be minimal anyway, but because instead of making Russia strong where it really counts, in real productive capacity, he is engaged in a childish and wasteful attempt to just build landmass. He is stuck in 1950. He is just a two bit Moscow hood with jackboots for brains. Why are all the worlds "leaders" so crazy?

I wonder what Obama and Putin's problem is?

19 Mar 14, 09:31
East Ukraine Next

Russia can invade Eastern Ukraine right now, and the West and US will do N O T H I N G! Why? Both the US and EU are broke, and furthermore the Euros can't afford to freeze in the upcoming winter. So, let the Ruskies go at it now, and it will be less painful and bloodless. Oh yeah, don't be surprise if they want Alaska back (and end up taking it) now; best do it now, that Obama is still in office.

19 Mar 14, 12:34

So, what's O'dumbo going to do now? They west is nothing but talk. Actions speaks louder than words! Good for Putin! The US has no business in the Ukraine, and no match against Russia. The EU thought they could put in a puppet government so they could steal their natural gas resources. Using human rights as a crutch! Its all about $$$ then it comes to the failing EU! Nothing but a bunch of cowards and always used the USA as their bully in the past. Only problem is the USA has lost its muscles. Oh, well, back to the drawing you Europe! lol

21 Mar 14, 21:03
Ukraine Your Wrong.

When Putin fails to annex any more of the Ukraine, make sure you come out and tell us why you called it wrong.

Andrew D.

21 Mar 14, 22:08
East Ukraine Next

Once Putin has finished digesting Crimea i.e. removed all Ukranian troops from their bases then he WILL next snack on East Ukraine!



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