Czar Putin's Annexation of Crimea Ukraine, Lesson for Independent Scotland?Politics / UK Politics Mar 04, 2014 - 06:39 PM GMT
The ease to which the Russian military descended upon Crimea and several eastern parts of Ukraine reeks of pre-planning of several several weeks if not months. Therefore Russia is not just reacting to events in Kiev but will likely have orchestrated the whole build up including the events that saw the Berkut special police open fire on protestors in Kiev, as all part of Putin's plan for the dismemberment of Ukraine before Ukraine forms closer ties with the European Union, ultimately joining the EU and NATO.
Russia's invasion of Crimea which given the continuing build up on east Ukraine's border that is is said to number more than 150,000 troops and equipment will likely culminate in a wholesale invasion and land grab of approx 1/3rd of Ukrainian territory.
Meanwhile whilst we should always take western mainstream press reporting with a giant pinch of salt, nevertheless the degree to which RT (Russian Tyranny) News engages in newspeak is on a whole different level that wholesale swallows the vomit of lies that spew out Czar Putin's mouth in justification of the invasion of Ukraine, where NONE of Czar Putin's statements are backed by any facts on the ground.
The bottom line is that no one that appears on Russian Tyranny (RT) News has any credibility as they are effectively on the payroll of Czar Putin's propaganda ministry to pump out worthless garbage, be it the likes of Max Keiser pumping the Bitcoin crypto-scam in an attempt at under-mining the dollar or a myriad of RT News presenters justifying the invasion of Ukraine with bare faced lies.
Ukraine a Lesson for Independant Scotland
As my recent articles have illustrated that when states start to disintegrate as the UK would start to do following a vote for Scottish Independence then so would a Pandora's box be opened that would soon see the docile domesticated politicians of today's Westminster, the likes of which we have been used to since the end of WW2, replaced by those who would be solely tasked with holding a fragmenting nation together which Putin style would seek to take advantage of economic and political chaos in an Independant Scotland that would not even have a currency, prompted to act to protect the approx 50% who voted NO to independence resulting in the annexation of parts of Scotland.
Whilst this is beyond most peoples comprehension today, but it would be the natural consequence of a disintegrating state especially as all of the reasons that Putin puts forward for the annexation of Crimea such as the black sea naval base and military installations, a large percentage russian population can also be made for many parts of Scotland where approx half the population would find themselves permanently living in a foreign country. Not forgetting that the UK has already engaged in several highly dubious if not outright criminal recent wars that required far less justification (Iraq and Afghanistan) than would the annexation of several parts of Scotland, for Scotland has been part of the UK for far longer than the Crimea had been a part of Russia.
An independant Scotland would be economically, politically and socially unstable, and if it followed the example of the last UK state to gain independence, Ireland then it would soon start to split into nationalist and Unionist regions that would seek to rejoin the UK that would be met with Scottish Nationalist resistance sparking violent civil conflict.
In fact should an Independant Scotland start to descend into near civil war than the British army could even be invited into Scotland to restore order, off course once the army comes then they usually never tend to leave.
More on the dangerous consequences of Scottish Independence -
UKRAINE 2014, BRITAIN 2016?
The real problem of Scottish Independence is as I have highlighted several times in recent articles is that it would open up a pandora's box that would encourage other parts of the UK to start their own separatist movements which would disrupt economic activity right across the UK, and that is the real danger of Scotland leaving the UK, and not its net economic impact on the UK.
Ukraine illustrates what tends to happen when countries start to tear themselves apart as peaceful demonstrations in Ukraine's capital city Kiev of barely a few weeks ago have fast descended into chaos towards outright civil war as several regions in the north-west such as Lviv declare independence, whilst the south-east stands behind its democratically elected President who fled the capital with loyal security forces barely 24 hours ago.
What was unimaginable a few weeks ago has now become a crisis situation of mounting deaths, where with each death Ukraine takes a further step towards leaping over the edge of and into the abyss of where the likes of Syria stands today, as the consequence of what happens when nations rip themselves apart.
Ukraine tearing itself apart has huge implications for european stability as the conflict risks sparking unrest in bordering states most of which have their own separatist movements, especially Russia which therefore looks set to intervene militarily.
Independant Scotland Debt Flash Point
Alex Salmond's debt default threat statements are akin to someone borrowing money from the bank to build a house and then declaring that they did not owe the bank anything, by rights the bank could repossess the property, and similarly the UK could impose tariffs (just as took place following Irish Independence) or seize Scottish assets on paper to the tune of £120 billion, effectively freezing the assets and thus restricting their use and resale.
Of course such an action would be seen as outrageous by the Scottish people and flame the fires of conflict as it would sow much discontent between Scots and the 1/2 million settled English in Scotland, just as does the SNP's statements of not taking on the £120 billion of debt to people south of the border.
This is just one example of how the SNP and Independant Scotland would sow the seeds of conflict between North and South Britain.
The Balkanisation of Britain
Alex Salmond and his merry band of scottish nationalists quest for dominance over a small part of the Island of Britain have failed to calculate that they will no longer have Westminister to blame for this, that, or other latest socialist deficit spending induced crisis. Which implies that the first port of call for disintegration will likely be in Scotland itself, as a vote for Independence at best would only marginally carry more than 50% of the votes. Therefore the Scottish nationalist government would within a couple of years start to hear highly vocal demands from parts of Scotland to rejoin the United Kingdom, the refusal of which could trigger the start of civil conflict, which as we have seen in Ukraine and elsewhere that it does not take much for crisis to spiral out of control.
As for the rest of the UK, unfortunately Scotland attempting to tear itself away from the United Kingdom would set in motion a chain of events that would destabilise the whole Island of Britain as many separatist movements would be emboldened to exaggerate their own sense of injustice mostly based on semi-mythical histories and as remedy seek their own autonomous or even independent states, such as Wales, Cornwall, Mercia and off course heavily subsidised Northern Ireland.
Scottish independence would result in increasingly chaos across the Island, as growing civil unrest would spread as a contagion infecting many other regions of Britain.
The first consequences of the start of UK fragmentation would be in the economic arena as regions would seek to exert greater autonomy and thus increasingly implement differing rules and regulations that would disrupt economic activity that would further accelerate the breakup of the Union as regions would continuously become poorer thus blame others for their circumstances and see further separation as the solution.
The European Union fears this which is why senior EU politicians have been lining up one after another to state that contrary to SNP propaganda, an Independant Scotland would not be fast tracked into the EU, for they understand that just as a disintegrating Ukraine would destabilise the whole eastern european region so would a disintegrating UK destabilise many western EU nations such as Spain, France, Belgium and Italy all of whom have their own separatists movements.
It would be difficult, if not impossible, for Scotland to join the European Union - European commission president José Manuel Barroso
The bottom line is that Scottish Independence would open a Pandora's box that would result in a state of Britain that is far removed from the rose tinted glasses picture that the likes of the SNP are painting today, because the UK has always been MORE than the SUM of its parts. Therefore a fragmented UK will be far LESS in EVERY respects than that which the UK is today.
Gangsters and Paramilitaries
Gangsters that would eventually become paramilitaries are waiting in the wings to capitalise upon the many opportunities they will be presented by the breakup of the UK, as separation will result in a boom time for criminal enterprises such as smuggling, gambling, drugs and extortion protection rackets amongst many others at huge cost to civil society in terms of the day to day lives of ordinary citizens becoming subject to the whims of flag flying criminal gangs.
A situation that the people of the Scotland or bordering regions of England could never imagine today much as the peoples of Northern Ireland could not imagine what lay in store for them following the breakup of Ireland. Where today, even over 15 years on from the Good Friday peace agreement the people of Northern Ireland still have to contend with the consequences of more than 180 well organised armed gangs, most of whom use the cloak of republicanism and loyalism to engage in high level of criminal activities that are beyond the experience of the peoples of mainland Britain. To imagine that this would not be replicated in a disintegrating UK and that on a far greater scale is ignoring what has taken place following the breakup of virtually every nation state in history. Weakened states act as magnates for organised crime, just as today Ukrainian, Russian, Polish gangsters are busy capitalizing on the chaos that is taking place in Ukraine.
So whilst it is unimaginable today for the SNP to have a paramilitary wing, however that does not mean it will be so a decade on from Independence as a consequence of the chaos that would follow the break up of the United Kingdom as we could see Scottish Nationalist paramilitaries battling against Loyalist paramilitaries as they attempt to carve up areas between themselves to profit from criminal activities as a consequence of weakened states that apart from terrorising the general population will have a huge impact on legitimate business activities.
The bottom line is should the UK start to breakup starting with Scottish Independence then several decades from now people will look back at today's UK as being a golden era of political, social and economic stability.
In terms of investment decisions, if Scotland votes Yes, then it should be taken as a cue to start to disinvest from the UK, and to seek to formulate an escape plan from the UK before the penny drops.
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.
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