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SNP Declare Scotland to Commit Economic Suicide Early 2019, 2nd Independence Referendum

Politics / UK Politics Mar 14, 2017 - 06:15 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


The cult like SNP that sees Independence as the answer to EVERY question and so IS are once more demanding another once in a generation Independence referendum, barely 2 years since the last one. This despite current opinion polls stating that 55% of Scots want to remain within the United Kingdom. Though facts on the ground barely register with Scotland's IS fundamentalists who could be seen as being just as dangerously determined to destroy the United Kingdom as are their Levant namesakes. Permanently deaf, dumb and blind to the real world consequences of that which they zealously seek, an outcome that would amount to Scotland committing economic, social and territorial suicide, for that is what happens when nations tear themselves apart and this whilst Britain is attempting to pull itself away from the European Union is clearly meant to do maximum damage to England and Scotland, in their never ending quest for suicide as is the ultimate goal of all cults.

And so the SNP cult has latched itself onto BrExit as the latest reason to ferment independence fever in Scotland, via the route of wanting to subvert the BrExit will of the British People towards their goal of killing the union and both nations so that they may awaken in an highlands paradise.

However, I am sure the Scottish people will once more vote to REMAIN within the United Kingdom because by the time the referendum is held in about 2 years time it will become crystal clear to all that EXITING the European Union WAS INDEPENDENCE not just for the UK but also for Scotland. BrExit really is in the BEST interests of ALL of the people of Britain, even those that support the SNP fundamentalist fanatics who in their apparent hatred of all things England would rather see Scotland BURN then remain within the UK with England, which includes to become an miniscule member of a dieing European Union that in my long standing opinion is heading towards inevitable disintegration of which BrExit was just the most recent step along its ultimate path towards collapse.

So whilst the likes of Sturgeon fantasises that the European Union will welcome a breakaway Scotland with open arms, however, virtually every EU nation has their own Scotland seeking independence from the nation state and thus the EU giving Scotland 'special treatment' would rejuvenate secessionist movements right across the EU with the likes of Catalonia and the Basque region in Spain, Venice and Tyrol in Italy, Corsica in France, Flanders in Belgium and even Bavaria in Germany are just some of Europe's many independence flash points which means few EU nations will be willing to open that can of worms.

And then we have the economic reality of Scotland that is on the receiving end of a net annual subsidy from England of £12 billion. So when Scotland leaves the UK, the SNP fantasises that the bill for filling Scotland's £12 billion black hole will be picked up by the likes of Germany. And what happens when Scotland fails to realise an annual net subsidy of £12 billion from the European Union? Scotland will within a matter of months if not weeks become Greece 2.0. So does Sturgeon really think that with all the chaos Greece has wrought on the Euro-zone that the EU wants to repeat the same mistake with Scotland i.e. to replace the UK which is a net contributor to the tune of about £11 billion per annum with one that demands a net subsidy of £12 billion per annum?

SNP Oil Revenue Economic Fantasy

The delusional SNP remain fixated on a grand economic plan of prospering due to North Sea oil. At the time of Independence the SNP propagandists were fantasising of an oil price north of $120 with trend trajectories that implied the oil price by now would be trading at over $150 so as to account for the black hole left by loss of the English subsidy.

Instead the oil price literally collapsed shortly after the referendum vote, and continuing to plunge into early 2016 with the price of oil falling to a 12 year low of less than $26, 1/4 the price at the time of the Sept 2014 referendum mania on the backs of an oil price trading at over $100 which had the Scottish Nationalists fantasising of the oil price imminently heading to $120 and beyond, as part of painting a propaganda picture of an Independent Scotland Utopia to be built on tens of billions of free money each year in the form of tax revenues from a perpetually expanding north sea oil industry. Not only were the nationalist convinced of the oil price soaring soaring into the stratosphere but would heavily round on anyone that suggested that oil prices could actually fall as being Unionist propaganda. And only partially recovering during 2017.

The following video aptly illustrates what could have transpired not just in Scotland but for much of Britain during the past 2 years if the SNP IS fanatics had succeeded in convincing the Scottish electorate into voting for Scottish suicide that would have unleashed forces that literally would have torn the UK apart, something that the SNP fanatics continue to remain ignorant of, this despite the fact that the oil price collapse of 2015 alone would have collapsed the Scottish economy fuelling the process for the disintegration of first Scotland and then the rest of the UK.

UK During the Year After Scotland Voted YES to Independence:

by SaveTheChildren (youtube)

At the time I warned in a series of articles and videos that the Scottish Nationalist fanatics were trying to convince the scottish people to jump off the edge of a cliff, effectively commit economic and social suicide as excerpted below:

Sep 07, 2014 - Scottish Independence YES Vote Panic - Scotland Committing Suicide and Terminating the UK?

Opening Pandora's Box of Disintegration, the Balkanisation of Britain

The peoples of the United Kingdom are literally being sleep walked towards the edge of the cliff, most completely unaware of the potentially disastrous ramifications for not just Scotland but for what lies in store for the remainder of the United Kingdom following a Scottish Independence YES vote that would break start the process for ripping apart a 300 hundred year old entity of an United Island of Great Britain, which as I have repeatedly warned of during 2014 that a YES vote would literally sow the seeds for the balkanisation of Britain as this Island would literally tear it itself apart as the status quo of what had been taken for granted would no longer exist.

A whole host of news during the past year illustrate that the approaching Scottish Independence vote has already galvanised agitants right across the UK, for instance blowing on the embers for Cornish independence as they wave their aptly coloured Cornish black funeralesk flag that continues with calls of autonomy literally right at the other end of Britain from the Northern and Western Isles with calls for their own devolution from Edinburgh and even calls for their own parliament that sows the seeds not only for the balkanisation of Britain but also for breakup of an newly Independent Scotland that following a YES vote would soon start to disintegrate, as for instance the bordering regions would reassert their separate identity that has far more in common with the North England than much of Scotland, formerly known as the Kingdom of Northumbria that stretches from Edinburgh in the north all the way to the city of Sheffield in the south.

Whilst Alex Salmond, Scotland's Nigel Farage repeatedly plays the Scotland is rich because of North Sea oil card, what he convientely omits is that a significant portion of Scotland's oil reserves lie in the waters of the Northern Isles (Orkney and Shetland). Many people of the Northern Isles see themselves as having far more in common with Norway than Scotland which given the near immediate currency, financial and economic crisis that would follow independence would be fast pulled towards sharing sovereignty for far greater stability with the likes of Norway that could achieve what it could never have done militarily, namely expanding its borders and gaining many western north sea oil fields. Though in all probability the Northern Isles would probably eventually settle as becoming a protectorate of the United Kingdom along the lines of the Isle of Man.

So if Alex Salmond 'King of the Scots' does succeed in his tunnel vision mission for an Independant Scotland then he will likely go down in history as the first and last Prime Minister of Scotland as we know it today, which effectively means a Yes vote on 18th September will be Scotland voting to commit suicide as when the dust settles what remains would be a mere fraction of its current size.

Oil Price Crash and SNP Independent Scotland

We'll 2 and half years on and this is what Scotland's fantasy oil revenues would now be looking like, which for the duration has been met by delusional propaganda from the Scottish nationalists that the fall in the price of oil was always just temporary, that a rebound was just around the corner, instead the oil price has continued to grind lower slowly turning the Scottish oil industry and Independence economics into dust as the fantasy expectations for oil revenues of £11bn a year would have resolved into a loss of £2 billion a year and where today Scotland's economy is only being kept alive by a £12 billion annual English subsidy that has been supplemented by emergency life support for Scotland's oil industry to the tune of £2 billion, which illustrates the catastrophe that Scotland only just avoided by a whisker.

Here's a glimpse of SNP propaganda during the referendum campaign that nearly convinced the Scottish people to commit suicide -

"There can be little doubt that Scotland is moving into a second oil boom. "Even with a cautious estimate of prices remaining at $113 a barrel being used, it's clear that Scottish oil and gas could generate more revenues than has previously been assumed." Alex Salmond, SNP Leader and First Minister.

Despite heavy English support of the Scottish economy, the oil price crash resulted in the Scottish economy effectively flat lining during 2015 AND 2016 which compares against UK GDP of 2% for each year. Despite this the Scottish people mostly remain in a delusional state as evidenced by the landslide for the Nationalists at the May 2016 Holyrood elections as apparently the lack of growth in Scotland is somehow England's fault rather than the nationalist fanatics who remain determined to burn Scotland in pursuit of a highlands fantasy.

Since then Scotland has lost over 70,000 jobs across the oil sector which further illustrates the crisis that Scotland is facing as there is no sign of the oil price rebounding to anywhere near the $113 that the likes of Alex Salmond were fantasising about, as required for Scotland's expensive offshore oil industry to recover. Instead Scotland's oil industry is being slowly ground into dust with an estimated 40% of its oil sectors jobs lost to date.

The inconvenient truth that the Scottish nationalists will never admit to is that if Scotland had voted to commit suicide in September 2014 then today the people of Scotland would be literally begging to rejoin the United Kingdom. With bordering regions in open revolt, much as I warned would transpire in the run up to the Referendum, the only difference being that I thought that the breakup of Scotland would take place over 3 years or so, instead it would have all happened in less than half that time!

So the Scottish nationalists instead of moaning and complaining and blaming others for their own ineptitude for once need to get off their high horse and say THANKYOU to England for saving their sorry asses during the oil price collapse of 2015-2017. Given the oil price collapse, the chances of an referendum win are ZERO, so instead now it should be England's turn to seriously consider cutting the Scottish noose from around England's neck which at the least should mean scrapping the Barnett Formula that funnels £12 billion or so to Scotland each year.

The bottom line is that the Scottish Oil Industry is DEAD because it cannot compete against the likes of fracking!

Crude Oil Price 2016

My in-depth analysis and forecast for 2016 proved remarkably accurate in that I expected the oil price to trend towards $60 by late 2016 before falling back below $50, later revising my target high for the year to $55. (Sept 2016)

Also see :

17 Jan 2016 - Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016

Crude Oil Price 2016 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the crude oil price to trade within three distinct trading ranges for 2016 of $20 to $40, $35 to $50 and $62 to $40. Furthermore the trend pattern imposed onto the trading ranges implies that a bottom is likely by early February 2016 at around $25, followed by a trend higher into Mid year towards $50, a correction into September, followed by a trend towards $62 before succumbing to a correction during December to target an end year price of approx $48 as illustrated by the following forecast graph.

Crude Oil Price 2017

Whilst an in-depth analysis resolving in a detailed trend forecast is beyond the scope of this article, however as a continuation of my conclusions for 2016, the oil price clearly remains within a trading range of between $55 and $40 that is likely to persist for most of 2017. Furthermore the oil price trend continues to maintain an upward bias i.e. a trend towards $60 during 2017 is far more probable then a break below $40.

Therefore Scotland remains firmly on an trend trajectory for Independence economic suicide and worse for the whole of 2017 at least. Scotland is not even going to see $60 break even prices for long let alone $120 that the SNP fantasises about.

Implications for UK and EU

The consequences for Britain are that it opens the UK up to EU subversion in an attempt at destabilising the UK so as to undermine Britain's Brexit negotiations with the final objective of Britain being forced to abandon BrExit.

Whilst on the other hand Scotland's Independence vote outcome would undermine the EU as it will once more embolden secessionist movements right across the EU demanding their own independence referendums, thus why the EU is likely to take a negative formal public stance to the prospects of an Independent Scotland joining the EU whilst offering off the record promises of fast tracking Scottish membership, unofficial promises that clearly the EU will never fulfil as Scotland will effectively be used as a pawn against the UK by the EU.

Therefore an Independence vote would be a LOSE, LOSE situation for both the UK, Scotland and Europe, to imagine anything else would be delusional. Thus in my final conclusion, despite SNP tunnel vision fanatical propaganda, I just cannot see how the Scottish people will vote to commit suicide when the arguments against Independence are far stronger today then they were back in September 2014.

Scottish People Will Vote NO to Independence

So Scottish Independence is just NOT going to happen! Because Scotland can NEVER BE INDEPEDENT, all that the SNP fanatics are seeking is a worse deal than that which Britain already has i.e. no opt outs, no rebate and part of the euro-zone, effectively to be Greece 2.0. The scottish people will see through this smoke screen and likely result in an even stronger vote to remain within the UK than in 2014.

Therefore we can all turn down the sound on our TV's whenever we hear shrill SNP voices as amounting to nothing more than the insane ramblings of IS fanatics, devoid of reasoned argument and rational thought who see EVERY EVENT through the prism of breaking up the UK.

Scotland will NOT vote for Independence in a Second Referendum! Furthermore I expect loss of a second referendum to be the nail in the SNP's political coffin as they see their dominance in Holyrood diminish over time at each election as the traditional parties make a comeback.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my next in-depth analysis which will be on what Game Theory says Britain Should do following triggering of Article 50.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2017 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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15 Mar 17, 21:03
cost of freedom

And what is the cost of the freedom, couple of points of GDP?!

This is what you have said about Brexit. Why not to stay consistent with Exscot....


16 Mar 17, 13:34
Scotland Greece 2.0

I am consistent, Scotland would be voting to become Greece 2.0 ruled from Germany.

Like Ive said before, if the EU gave the UK an equivalent subsidy that England gives to Scotland each year i.e. about £100bn per annum, then I would be all favour of remaining within the EU. It would be a no brainer! As is Scotland remaining within the UK at great expense to England.

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