Friday, July 30, 2021
Fed Stocks Nothingburger, Dollar Lower, Focus on GDP, PCE / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
It was a rather pedestrian FOMC Statement day on Wednesday. There is GDP data incoming, and the widely Fed-followed Core PCE Price Index data comes out on Friday. What can we take away from the FOMC Statement and press conference?
Rates unchanged. No rush to raise interest rates. Inflation should persist.
No surprises here.
However, there was some notable price action in the US Dollar Index during Wednesday’s session. The US Dollar Index initially rose on the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM. During the press conference, the USD fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation should persist for several months. It is noteworthy price action and can be a forward-looking indicator for the direction of other asset prices.
Thursday, July 29, 2021
Reverse REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
Next Time You See "4 Times as Many Stock Market Bulls as There Are Bears," Remember This / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
See how stock investors' "historic optimism" served as a warning
After a 12-year uptrend, just when caution might be in order, investor psychology has remained highly and stubbornly optimistic.
As the July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides Elliott wave analysis of major U.S. financial markets, said:
Large traders are more exuberant than ever. On June 11, large trader buy-to-open call purchases jumped to 45%, a new record.
A highly bullish outlook was also expressed in this July 10 Marketwatch headline:
The bull market in stocks may last up to five years -- here are six reasons why
Notice that the headline's suggestion is that the bull market has just started.
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USDX reportedly invalidated its bullish H&S pattern yesterday, but did it actually do so? The line based on daily closing prices says otherwise.
Yesterday’s (Jul. 27) supposedly big news was the breakdown below the neck level of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the USD Index. Invalidations of breakouts are bearish, and what’s bearish for the USDX is usually bullish for gold, silver, and mining stocks. So, what happened? And what didn’t happen?
Thursday, July 29, 2021
WEALTH INEQUALITY WASN'T BY HAPPENSTANCE! / Politics / Social Issues
By: Gordon_T_Long
Global sovereign debt has been expanding at historic rates with the US Debt quickly now approaching $30T with the US Debt Ceiling moratorium ending Saturday July 31st. Overlay this with a $3.5T US budget reconciliation bill presently on the floor of congress (which along with other planned expenditures will total over $5T) policy setters are soon going to have to ask whether this spending is actually helping or hindering? Maybe just as important a question is who has been winning or losing during this era of exploding debt?
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
Waiting On Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
Expectations still abound for the long-awaited, vertical leap in silver prices. We are told it is inevitable; and that it is supported by solid fundamentals. Those fundamentals include supply deficits, a return to the 16 to 1 gold-silver ratio, increasing monetary demand for silver, etc.
However, an examination of those fundamentals reveals a different picture. That picture is inconsistent with the call for higher silver prices.
SILVER SUPPLY & DEMAND, RATIOS
The supply deficits (gaps in consumption over production) have been talked about for decades. In the 1960s and 1970s they were the principal fundamental justification in the case for higher silver prices.
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
Showdown: Paper vs. Physical Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The first half of 2021 did not play out as hoped by precious metals investors. Despite the effort to “squeeze” the bullion banks, silver has yet to push through the $30 barrier, and gold remains below the high put in nearly a year ago.
The effort has been valiant. Demand for physical bullion is unprecedented.
However, the paper markets, where price discovery is purportedly done, remain untethered to physical supply and demand.
It will take more than physical demand to break the back of the banking regime which dominates the paper markets.
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
New set of Priorities needed for Unstoppable Global Warming / Politics / Climate Change
By: Richard_Mills
Heads of state gathered on Dec. 12, 2015, for the 21st conference of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). When the Paris agreement, as it came to be known, came into effect on Nov. 4, 2016, 196 countries agreed to try and limit the warming of the Earth by 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably 1.5 degrees C, compared to pre-industrial levels, by mid-century.
The 2-degree threshold is often used by researchers as a target in efforts to slow climate change, including a recent report by Wood Mackenzie entitled ‘Champagne supercycle: Taking the fizz out of the commodity price boom’.
In the report, the Scotland-based consultancy says another commodities supercycle is on the horizon, but it will be different from any that have come before:
Fossil fuels won’t be in the vanguard and the winners will be the industrial metals needed to electrify society — cobalt, lithium, copper, nickel, and aluminium.
Under Wood Mackenzie’s Accelerated Energy Transition-2 (AET-2) scenario, which is consistent with limiting the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times to 2 °C, 360 million tonnes (Mt) of aluminium, 90 Mt of copper, and 30 Mt of nickel will feed the energy transition over the next 20 years. This level of additional metal presents obvious challenges for producers and consumers alike.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2021
The US Dollar is the Driver of the Gold & Silver Sectors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Lorimer_Wilson
The U.S. dollar, as the world reserve currency, is still the driver of silver, gold, and inflation pricing and the charts below show that they should now be ready to run based on the USD topping and then dropping in “price”.
At this point the U.S. Dollar has corrected upward but has now either entered its next top, or is very close to that overhead resistance. Thus, we appear to be at the point where the USD will very soon start to move lower causing Precious Metals pricing across the board to start to move up aggressively, once again. In fact, I suspect that we saw a glimpse of exactly that into the close last week. All USD comments are on the chart.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2021
Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed’s manipulation of the money supply and its cost has served to obliterate the function of asset price discovery, just as it has also caused the middle and lower classes to reduce their standard of living. Since a greater percentage of their falling real incomes goes to the purchase of food and energy--the things most effected by money printing--the wealth gap, which the fed avows to care about, has become greatly exacerbated.After foolishly and desperately pursuing inflation many years, the dog finally caught the truck. But predictably, the freedom killers at the FOMC are coming to realize inflation is easily tractable on both ends of the spectrum. Its asinine 2% inflation goal was meant to be a ceiling when first proposed; but was underachieved for many years. However, that level has now been transcended by leaps and bounds. The evil inflation genie was released out of the bottle and putting it back in will entail destroying the stock market and economy as a direct consequence. In other words, it took trillions upon trillions of helicopter dollars to get inflation and asset prices where they are today. And unless the Treasury and Fed assent to doing that same thing on a more consistent basis, asset prices and the economy should succumb to a deflationary meltdown next year. A Pyrrhic victory over inflation is the best we can hope for.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2021
Gold And Silver – Which Will Have An Explosive Price Rally And Which Will Have A Sustained One? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our followers and readers have been emailing us asking for more research into Precious Metals and updated Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Price Modeling charts (our proprietary price/technical mapping system capable of predicting future trends, setups, and price levels). This special Gold and Silver research article will help you learn what to expect over the next 24+ months and where opportunities exist in Gold and Silver trends.
Longer-term support in Gold likely to act as an upward sloping price floor over the next 24+ months
There are two key upward sloping trend lines we want to focus your attention on, on this Monthly Gold chart, below. The first, the YELLOW trend line, originates from the 2009 bottom from the Housing Crisis. The important thing to remember at this time was that the US markets were in the midst of a broad market Depreciation Cycle that started in 2001-02 and ended in 2010. The rally that was taking place before the 2000 Depreciation Cycle started was a reactionary upside price trend resulting from the end of the DOT COM bubble and the post 911 terrorist attacks. The US entered a war that pushed fear levels higher – resulting in a transitional shift in how Gold was perceived at that time.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2021
I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Looking back to the early part of the week, we all saw something that should not shock anyone who is actually thinking in an intellectually honest manner about the market.You see, the market saw a nice drop on Monday. And, the news media was at the forefront "explaining" how the market fears regarding the Delta variant of Covid is what caused the decline, and would likely take it much lower. It made me wonder if they polled all the market participants to come up with that reason for the decline, or if they simply made it up as they go?
Well, I think it is quite clear that they simply made it up as they go, which is what they always do. And, investors were quite eager to foolishly adopt their reasoning as usual. Did you?
At some point, investors have to begin thinking for themselves and ignore what they are fed about the market (pun intended). Most of the reasons we believe the markets move are based upon pure fallacy. Those that propagate those fallacies are never burdened by the actual facts. Rather, whatever the news of the day seems to fit the narrative of the market direction is utilized as a reason for a market move, even if it is wholly untrue.
Wednesday, July 28, 2021
Eight Do’s and Don’ts For Options Traders / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Trading, especially options, can be very exciting and rewarding. Having said that, you should not be trading options before learning at least the basics about how to trade them. Options are very different from stocks and there are more factors that go into the pricing. Many view it as a get-rich-quick scheme while others think it is gambling. I am here to say it is neither but you have to know the rules before you can trade them if you want to be successful. Last week I covered some little-known basic facts. This week I am covering 8 Do’s and Don’ts for options traders.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Chasing Value in Unloved by Markets Small Cap Biotech Stocks for the Long-run / Companies / BioTech
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Five more biotech stocks to add to the strategy of invest and forget for a potential X10 return. a reminder of why I am engaging in this binge on biotech stocks after having been focused on AI stocks for the past 5 years.
1. Biotech stocks are an unloved stocks sector whilst tech stocks over valued, even the ultra safe stocks such as the Top 10, so I am reluctant to add at current valuations hence why I hit the SELL button for the first time in many years and reduced my exposure to AI stocks by about 40%.
2. That biotech is a derivative of AI, we'll most sectors will soon become a derivative of AI because it is the PRIMARY tech megatrend of our age that will continue to broaden its reach to encompass all sectors of the economy.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda / Commodities / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As the summer doldrums drag on, precious metals bulls are eying potential support levels for a seasonal bottom.
The gold market found support at the $1,750 level last month and has since been trading with a slight upside bias. Although the price action hasn’t been especially exciting, base building in these summer months can be a healthy technical process in the context of a larger bull market.
Meanwhile, investors are weighing troubling developments on the inflation front. Price increases are hitting consumers every time they shop, and that trend shows no signs of letting up.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Gold Investors Wavering / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been sucking wind this summer, trudging along after getting slammed by a distant-future-rate-hikes scare. The resulting lower prices have really damaged psychology, leaving investors wavering on gold. Their recent capital inflows have reversed into modest selling, contributing to unusual weakness in this leading alternative asset. But investment demand should roar back in this inflationary environment.
Gold entered summer 2021 with strong upside momentum, in a young upleg that had just powered up 13.5% in 2.8 months by early June. This current interrupted upleg is the fifth of gold’s secular bull, and the previous four averaged big 33.3% gains. Gold was progressing nicely until the June 16th meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC was expected to do nothing, and that’s what it did.
In a nothingburger monetary-policy decision, the FOMC left its zero-interest-rate policy and $120b per month of quantitative-easing money printing in place indefinitely. There were no hints that either of these hyper-easy policy stances would be changed anytime soon. The leveraged gold-futures speculators who dominate gold’s short-term fortunes should’ve yawned at that, and gone back to enjoying lazy summers.
But with every other FOMC decision, the Fed releases a Summary of Economic Projections that shows where individual top Fed officials expect to see certain economic data in coming years. That includes their outlooks for the federal-funds rate, which are gathered in a scatter chart known as the “dot plot”. In mid-June’s version, 6 out of 18 top Fed officials thought there might be two quarter-point hikes into year-end 2023!
That was about 2.5 years into the future, an eternity away in the markets. And the dot plot has proven a notoriously-inaccurate FFR predictor anyway. That very afternoon the Fed chair himself warned that the dots are “not a Committee forecast, they’re not a plan. ... the dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.” He said they should “be taken with a big grain of salt.” Jerome Powell advised to ignore the dot plot!
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Bogdance - How Binance Scams Futures Traders With Fake Bitcoin Prices to Run Limits and Margin Calls / Currencies / Scams
By: HGR
Binance should be renamed as Bogdance given the myriad of scams that the worlds largest crypto trading platform perpetrates on it's users, with so many instruments such as the inverse leverage coins designed to extract funds from crypto traders it is near impossible for most to make any money trading on this scam platform. In this video I demonstrate Bogdance's fake Bitcoin futures prices designed to stop traders out of their positions, and the variation between spot markets and futures is not just a few percent but by huge margins to ensure stops are hit or margin levels are annihilated thus prompting position closures at the worst possible prices all to the benefit of Binance! Thus the Bogdanof twins are rightly proud of Binance the worlds premier Crypto Scams exchange!
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.SPX Intermediate trend: SPX May wat to push all the way to the top projection before making an important correction.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
What Is HND and How It Will Help Your Career Growth? / Personal_Finance / Education
By: Umer_Mahmood
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
5 Mobile Apps Day Traders Should Know About / Personal_Finance / Trading Systems
By: S_N_Chatterjee
There was a time when only rich people and individuals capable of taking financial risks used to engage in online trading. However, today, with so much information available online about stocks, funds, and shares, individuals with different professional and financial backgrounds participate in online trading. The popularity of online trading has increased even further following the advent of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.The best thing about online trading is that it can be done from anywhere as long as you have access to an Internet connection. Additionally, there are multiple apps that can boost your market intelligence and trading profits by making the process of investing in the right stock/fund/share easier for you. The section below would introduce you to five mobile apps designed to help day traders to trade more safely and earn bigger profits.
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