Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan
Gold Price Back Below $1,800! - 10th Sep 21
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… - 10th Sep 21
Silver Price seen tracking Copper prices higher - 10th Sep 21
The Pitfalls of Not Using a Solicitor for Your Divorce - 10th Sep 21
Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
This Boom-Bust Cycle in US Home Ownership Should Give Home Shoppers Pause - 9th Sep 21
Stock Market September Smackdown Coming Next? - 9th Sep 21 - Monica_Kingsley
Crazy Crypto Markets How to Buy Bitcoin, Litecoin for Half Market Price and Sell for TRIPLE! - 8th Sep 21
Sun Sea and Sand UK Holidays 2021, Scarborough in VR 180 3D! - 8th Sep 21
Bitcoin BTC Price Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2021 - 8th Sep 21
Hyper Growth Stocks - This billionaire is now using one of our top strategies - 8th Sep 21
6 common trading mistakes to avoid at all costs - 8th Sep 21
US Dollar Upswing, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook - 7th Sep 21
Dovish Assassins of the USD Index - 7th Sep 21
Weak August Payrolls: Why We Should Care - 7th Sep 21
A Mixed Stock Market - Still - 6th Sep 21
Energy Metals Build Momentum; Silver & Platinum May Follow - 6th Sep 21
What‘s Not to Love About Crypto Market Fireworks - 6th Sep 21
Surging US Home Prices and Gold – What’s the Link? - 6th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold And Silver’s Big Move And The Very Special Circumstances That Causes It

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 May 11, 2010 - 11:06 AM GMT

By: Hubert_Moolman

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom October 2008 to date the gold price has performed rather well. It is up 77.6% from the intraday low of $682 on 24 October 2008. It is of course not the only good up since then; in fact most goods are quite well up in nominal dollar terms.

If a good is up in price 77% in a period of about 1.5 years it would probably be reasonable to expect at least a slowdown in the pace of price growth or even a gradual decrease. Unless, there are very special circumstances present, such as one could probably have in a case of hyperinflation or say an extreme sudden shortage of that good which cannot be immediately replenished etc. one would certainly not expect it to accelerate further at an even faster rate as before.


At this time the gold price exist in a market where there are just such very special circumstances present.

 The gold price has been suppressed for at least 70 years, by the existence of fractional reserve banking and its related fiat monetary system (together referred to as the debt-based monetary system).

This debt-based monetary system has increased the money supply dramatically and by association debt levels. The debt based monetary system is on its last legs, and while it is still alive; gold, silver and certain real assets will soon adjust upwards in price (significantly) to compensate for the results (over valued financial or intangible assets) brought about by significantly increasing debt levels.

This upward adjustment will disrupt the world economy significantly and if it is quick it could ruin the world economy and collapse the debt-based monetary system.

The world is currently much like a man who has a long term loan which he has been using for many years to finance his lavish lifestyle. The loan has a net present value (owing) many times the net present value of all income he would likely be able to make even if he was able to live 2000 years. The terms are that the lender can call on the loan any time. The problem for him is that the lender is one just like him (in the same position). It is only a matter of time before it all comes down crashing.

Like I have said before, the crash is coming, there is nothing that can be done to stop it. I believe some of the pain associated with this crash as well as some of the significant threats can be countered by a worldwide debt forgiveness. Impractical as it is, it is probably the only solution that can meaningfully help manage the pain that will accompany this crash in debt and its creations. It could mainly help in that it can help people to focus their efforts on the critical aspects of the world’s economy, such as food supply and energy supply instead of fear brought about by the wholesale uncertainty. You will notice that I wrote people not governments.

 It is like in Egypt before the 7 year famine. Once it was known, that the 7 year famine was coming as well as when it was coming, people could focus on saving food for the famine period.

A well timed and organized debt forgiveness might provide a similar scenario, in that it may help many to prepare like Egypt did since it would remove a significant amount of uncertainty and the element of surprise.

So, we are indeed at a point in time where extremely special circumstances are present, circumstances that are extremely bullish for gold. Fundamental are thus telling me that gold and silver of course could take off to a series of higher highs month after month at any time now.

My technical analysis, in particular my fractal analysis is telling me that we are now in that big move. See below, I have included analysis I sent to my subscribers on 17 April 2010.

Below is a 4 year chart of the gold price.

There are basically 2 patterns or fractals on this chart which are potentially matching. I have marked them as 1 to 4. You will see the 1st pattern is smaller than the 2nd. You will also notice that the two patterns are not exactly the same, but there is a similarity.

To identify these patterns one has to use a combination of traditional geometry as well as, more importantly, an “artistic eye”.

WARNING -It is very important to know that one has to be aware of the bigger picture, or longer term chart (fractal analysis) and that this shorter term analysis is consistent with what the longer term analysis is indicating. The longer term analysis is not the subject of this document, however, I am satisfied that it is consistent with this analysis, in order that we can possibly assume the same outcome for these patterns.

So currently we have potentially just hit point 4 at the end of March 2010, and gold should be working its way up to the resistance line, in a relatively accelerating manner.

At this moment, that target could be just over the $ 1300 dollar level, but it should be clearer closer to the time.

Silver

Below is a 4 year chart of Silver

The same as for gold, there are basically 2 patterns or fractals on this silver chart which are potentially matching. I have marked them as 1 to 4. You will see the 1st pattern is smaller than the 2nd. You will also notice that the 2 patterns are not exactly the same, but there is a similarity.

Same as for gold, I am satisfied that this analysis is consistent with the long term analysis.

So currently we have potentially just hit point 4 at the end of January 2010, and silver should be working its way up to the resistance line, in a relatively accelerating manner.

At his moment, that target could be just over the $ 21.50 dollar level, but it should be clearer closer to the time.

Closing Comments


I hope this is of use as regards the outlook for the gold and silver market as well as applying it in future analysis.

If you are interested in learning more about fractal analysis, subscribe to my free newletter  (see below).

For more on where gold is going after the $ 1300 - $ 1350 level you can purchase my Long Term Gold Fractal Analysis Report for $50 (email me for details).

***

If you find this information useful, please forward it to friends or family so that I can continue to reach people that would not normally read such informative sites as this one. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter please send me an email. My newsletter is free and I send it out whenever I have something to “say”.  I do accept donations though, so that I can continue to research and write; email me for how.

Do not forget to visit my blog, since I publish additional articles there, on a regular basis: http://blogs.24.com/hubertmooolman

May God bless you.

Hubert Moolman

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

© 2010 Copyright Hubert Moolman - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in