Stock Market September Correction

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025 Sep 03, 2025 - 08:12 AM GMT

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Stock Market Brief - Monday 1st Sept - 4am UK Time.

Greetings Patron

We have now entered September seasonally the worst month of the year for stocks, even higher probability for a down month when preceded by an Up August all whilst many at the bull market highs have forgotten how easy it is to LOSE MONEY, so with the S&P at 6460 is ready to teach lessons as everyone is convinced a Fed rate cut is a done deal that will further ignite the booster rockets under the bull market.

Fed meets on 17th Sept ahead of which we get the Unemployment rate and Non Farms on Friday 5th, PPI Wednesday 10th, and then CPLIE on the 11th, all of the ducks are being lined up.

S&P 500 metrics - EGFS 4%, 8%, Dir -6%, PE ranges 97%, 65%
Slowing growth, near peak valuation, it's primed for correction target drop of 8% to 10%, only thing that can lift it is pure FOMO to push beyond 100% of PE range. I suspect by the end of September today's FOMO will be replaced by sheer panic and folk will be asking me if the bear market has started.

AMD $162
70% chance it corrects down to at least $120
30% chance it resumes it's pump to target $210.
I'm positioned for the dump to $120, but have enough exposure to capitalise on the LESS probable pump, exposure is always a balancing act of valuation vs potential and probability. I mean at -5% exposure I don't have any hard cash at risk so can ride it either way without consequence.

Bitcoin $108k - I'll start accumulating lightly sub $105k, it could go as low as $80k, though at this time the expected range is $105k to $90k. I'm adding back some of the 90% I sold on the pump to $125k so maybe buy back upto 10% of what I sold depending on how low it blows.

Bitcoin / S&P divergence bodes well for a September stock market correction.

Spreadsheet metrics have been updated (link in latest article).

Primaries continue to grow earnings with Google and Qualcom cheap, whilst only META is a little on the hot side. Nvidia remains numero uno, so if we get lucky with a dump down to say $140 I'll buy back some of what I sold at $180+

Secondaries - ASML, Amazon cheap, Broadcom, KLAC, TSLA and Apple expensive. Micron has made good improvement on earnings so eager to accumulate on a dip.

Cash mountain stands at 48.4% so I am well positioned to accumulate some of what I sold during a correction, still waiting for the next phase of the Tesla blood bath, $334 33% down from it's $488 high so I don't know what Tesla bulls are crowing about, they had their chance to sell and blew it. now Tesla is 32% lower AND they lost on the dollar moving against them as well, maybe by end of September we will see Tesla under $200.

The thing about racism is that it makes folk under estimate their opponent as the guy in Whitby found out (https://youtu.be/Kaf5amutV4c). This error is not just made by individuals but nations as well, Japan repeatedly kicked Russia's butt and gave America a run for it's money, and then Russia kicked Germanys butt in both cases racism meant they were under estimated. Racism is the achilles heel of those who think they are superior to others. Do NOT underestimate China!

Your ready to buy the dip analyst, by how much? depends on what opportunities materialise as per the buying ranges.

Nadeem Walayat
https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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