Exxon, Petro China and other vultures are circling over the crippled oil giant BP now that it is within reach of 'hopefully' plugging the Gulf oil gusher though still facing perhaps as much as $100 billion in litigation.

Exxon has asked the Obama administration if they can have a shot at taking over BP, which highlights how the situation has become highly politicised as the place to ask whether to take over BP should be at the London Stock Exchange i.e. the stock holders.

BP has yet to confirm if its latest cap has been successful, they probably fear that the pressure is too great so don't won't to risk making the situation worse by causing the well casing to disintegrate, at best they are hoping the latest cap will reduce the rate of flow leak as an interim solution ahead of the relief wells which are just days away.

BP Debt is starting to recover but still trading at distressed levels due to the open ended litigation for compensation claims that range anywhere between $30 to $100 billion.

The BP stock price has started to pull itself off of the floor, whilst it may revisit the floor several more times in response to U.S. political and legal sanctions, the long-term trend barring takeovers and breakups remains hugely positive.

Potential Dangers remain - The Armageddon Scenario of What If Relief Wells Fail to Stop the Blowout ?

Well that would be terminal for BP as the gusher would keep blowing until enough of the oil and gas has escaped resulting in an decrease in the pressure to enable the well to be capped. How long ? 1 year ? 2 years ? 3years? its anyone's guess. But one things for sure it would be terminal for BP as BP would be bankrupt as liability costs would soar to far beyond $100 billion whilst BP would be forced to keep drilling new relief wells in an attempt at eventually plugging the hole, which even if it were to succeed say 6 months from now, it would be far too late to save BP.

My view - On the basis that the relief wells will succeed, the gulf oil gulf disaster can be seen as a short term crisis, long-term BP remains a huge gash generator even if it has to pay up as much as a $100 billion in costs, it would still represent good long-term value as oil prices trend ever higher towards and past $200 a barrel, so no wonder the vultures are circling to bid for large chunks of the company, though don't expect formal action this side of the relief wells.

Bottom Line - The Deepwater drilling gulf oil crisis shows that Oil price in the long-run is only headed in one direction, UP. Investors should continue to align portfolios to benefit from this inflationary mega-trend see Ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD).

Comments and Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21087.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.