Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Reverse REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger - 29th Jul 21
Next Time You See "4 Times as Many Stock Market Bulls as There Are Bears," Remember This - 29th Jul 21
USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead? - 29th Jul 21
WEALTH INEQUALITY WASN'T BY HAPPENSTANCE! - 29th Jul 21
Waiting On Silver - 29th Jul 21
Showdown: Paper vs. Physical Markets - 29th Jul 21
New set of Priorities needed for Unstoppable Global Warming - 29th Jul 21
The US Dollar is the Driver of the Gold & Silver Sectors - 28th Jul 21
Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class - 28th Jul 21
Gold And Silver – Which Will Have An Explosive Price Rally And Which Will Have A Sustained One? - 28th Jul 21
I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? - 28th Jul 21
Eight Do’s and Don’ts For Options Traders - 28th Jul 21
Chasing Value in Unloved by Markets Small Cap Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 27th Jul 21
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda - 27th Jul 21
Gold Investors Wavering - 27th Jul 21
Bogdance - How Binance Scams Futures Traders With Fake Bitcoin Prices to Run Limits and Margin Calls - 27th Jul 21
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? - 27th Jul 21
What Is HND and How It Will Help Your Career Growth? - 27th Jul 21
5 Mobile Apps Day Traders Should Know About - 27th Jul 21
Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" - 25th Jul 21
Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes - 25th Jul 21
Indian Delta Variant INFECTED! How infectious, Deadly, Do Vaccines Work? Avoid the PCR Test? - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model to Infinity and Beyond Price Forecasts - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - GOOGLE! - 24th Jul 21
Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities - 24th Jul 21
Biden’s Dangerous Inflation Denials - 24th Jul 21
How does CFD trading work - 24th Jul 21
Junior Gold Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop? - 23rd Jul 21
Best Forex Strategy for Consistent Profits - 23rd Jul 21
Popular Forex Brokers That You Might Want to Check Out - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - Will Crypto Currencies Get Banned? - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price Enters Stage #4 Excess Phase Peak Breakdown – Where To Next? - 22nd Jul 21
Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold Price? - 22nd Jul 21
What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar - 22nd Jul 21
URGENT! ALL Windows 10 Users Must Do this NOW! Windows Image Backup Before it is Too Late! - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price CRASH, How to SELL BTC at $40k! Real Analysis vs Shill Coin Pumper's and Clueless Newbs - 21st Jul 21
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? - 21st Jul 21
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - 8 months Later - Did it work?- Block Paving Weeds - 21st Jul 21
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble - 21st Jul 21
What is Social Trading - 21st Jul 21
Would Transparency Help Crypto? - 21st Jul 21
AI Predicts US Tech Stocks Price Valuations Three Years Ahead (ASVF) - 20th Jul 21
Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked? - 20th Jul 21
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International - 20th Jul 21
Nissan to Create 1000s of jobs with electric vehicle investment in UK - 20th Jul 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Snap UK General Election Before the Economic Slump Hits? - Vote Now!

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Sep 23, 2007 - 02:01 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The British press is full of gossip about the possibility of a UK General Election in October 2007. Though not all of the gossip is idle chatter as the party's election coordinator declared " Labour is ready for a general election, whenever Gordon Brown chooses to call one", in advance of Gordon Browns first party conference speech as Prime Minister.

This article analyses the reasons for and against a snap general election in October.


Snap UK General Election 2007

Reasons For an Election in October

  • The slump in the UK Housing market has just started and therefore the implications of which will not hit the headlines until later this year.
  • Gordon Brown is riding high in the opinion polls, still enjoying a honeymoon period after the British people were on the whole happy to see the back of Tony Blair. The tories are not helped by David Cameron who always seems to be one step behind, which was evident on his belated statement concerning the Northern Rock banking crisis. Therefore the tories probably fear a snap general election.
  • The credit crunch is not going to go away. The Northern Rock Bank run was a warning of its impact. The Bank of England has been ordered to pump as much money as is required to negate its immediate effects. However there will be longer term consequences of this action especially with regards the British Pound. The subprime mortgage resets are expected to hit both the UK and US hard during the next 12 months.
  • Gordon Brown is the only heavyweight on the Labour scene, his new chancellor is literally his Darling. Unlike for Tony Blair, who had to contest with the plotter next door!.
  • Despite Northern Rock, the British people still see Gordon Brown as economically competent, which is probably the greatest factor in his favour at this time and therefore strongly supports the view of an early election. Latest opinion polls put Labour well ahead of the Tories with Fridays YouGov poll for Telegraph putting labour on 39%, Tories on 33% and Lib Dems on 16%.
  • A snap election for which New Labour have been secretly preparing will catch both main opposition parties off guard. Especially given the turmoil in both parties as their leaderships have been questioned of late.

Reasons Against an Election in October

  • The foot and mouth outbreak refuses to go away. There is a risk of a wider outbreak during an election campaign that would count against New Labour. If the foot and mouth problems were not bad enough, now the tongues seem to have gone blue too ! It is early days to see what this actually means politically other than for more bad livestock headlines.
  • The credit markets are unstable as the interbank markets remain frozen .There is a lot of uncertainty out there that could result in further panics, and October is a month that is renowned for financial panics.
  • Labour finances are deeply in the red, with the latest figures available suggesting a debt of £24 millions. hardly the ideal position to be in, in advance of fighting an expensive general election campaign. However, if the tories were allowed time to prepared then they would likely be able to draw on proportionally more funds.
  • Gordon does not have to go to the polls until 2010, therefore if he goes now and loses, he could end up being one of the shortest reigning Prime Ministers in British history, which would probably bring a smile to at least Cherie Blairs face.

In conclusion, the reasons for an early election are far more compelling than the reasons against. Whether Gordon Brown will call an election is another matter. We shall know within the next 2 weeks, with the greatest probability of announcement being towards the end of the party conference.

VOTE NOW - Should Gordon Brown go for an October General Election ?

Yes - Because Labour would win
Yes - Because Labour would lose
No - Because Labour would lose
No - Because Labour would win.

Click Here to Vote Now (registration not necessary)
Click Here for Results so far.

Results analysis will follow in a weeks time.

By Nadeem Walayat
(c) Marketoracle.co.uk 2005-07. All rights reserved.

The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 100 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Simon P
23 Sep 07, 13:59
labour waste

Labour has wasted so much money on the NHS and schools without much extra output, it all seems to have gone on wages.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in