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Stock Market Fed Minutes Quiet.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Nov 20, 2014 - 11:59 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


The market was anticipating something negative in those Fed minutes since a few of the Feds, who, by the way, are on their way out in 2015, were asking for rates to be raised sooner than later. Over the past month, or so, we've seen a few of them try to put pressure on Fed Yellen by stating their beliefs on what they think she should do, but she hasn't blinked. They stated their intentions in the minutes, but, once again, we didn't get any indication from Yellen that she's going to raise rates sooner than later, especially since in those minutes she talked about the slow improvement in housing, which is a key-economic indicator for her. She wasn't happy on that front, thus, on that alone we should expect her to keep rates low for a very, very long time.

The market knows it, which is why it hasn't had the massive move lower quite yet, even though there's every reason for it to do so. It'll happen, but this behavior by the Fed has certainly delayed things a lot longer than anyone thought possible. There are so many technical headaches for the market, not to mention wicked froth, you really have to wonder how it holds up, even with her super dovish behavior. It shouldn't matter, but, amazingly, it has and still is. Bottom line is the bears didn't get what they wanted or hoped for and that's the reason the market didn't crater lower once those minutes were released. The two hawkish Fed governor's simply have no control on what's to come regarding rates.

When selling ensues it is essential we pay close attention as to how it takes place. Nothing in the selling today raised a red flag meaning price wasn't impulsive to the down side. Volume didn't increase, which may suggest some distribution, and the oscillators we follow did everything right. Slow, gradual pulling back to levels where buyers have often come in. No blast lower leading ahead of price. This doesn't mean we're not about to fall hard based on the headaches facing this market, but it does suggest, for the moment, that there's nothing bearish in how price declined.

The way I always look at the market is to see what the technical picture is saying. I don't worry about what should be. I only focus on price and their oscillators, and if we do that for today we see nothing on the bearish side of the ledger. I do know how tough it is to keep things quiet emotionally. It's almost impossible, so I depend on the technical world to lead me. It can't always work. It does more often than not.

That nasty bull-bear spread paid us another visit from the dark side if you're a bull. The spread now a very unreasonable 41.5%. I laugh because it's such a bad number. Remember, even just 30% can cause a significant market correction. When you're over 35% it's basically a get-out-of-the-market signal, and when you're dealing with 40+%....well, you get the idea. It's not a safe environment, even if price is working well in the short term.

At any moment, and yes, without provocation, things can come down hard and fast. This will remain bad news for the bulls, until we can get it back below 30% somewhere down the road. No fun having to worry about so many negatives in the market as it grinds its way up. We deal with what is and accept it, even if we don't particularly like it. So now we move along in a bullish trend, with many bearish events in the picture, and wonder how long this market can go up without a significant selling episode along the way.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2014

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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