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Stocks Bear Market - 5 Further Technical Confirmations

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Sep 05, 2015 - 04:22 PM GMT

By: Brian_Bloom



We now have five signals that the US equity market is entering a Primary Bear Trend (Confirms the prognosis of the S&P Global 1200 Index)

  1. Rounding top on both Industrials and Transports
  2. The DJ Industrials’ fall to a lower low than October 2014 was confirmed by Transports fall to a lower low (Pink spots)
  3. “Death Cross” on both indices as 50 Day MA crossed over of 200 day MA (Green spots)
  4. The consolidation of both indices after fall below 200 day MA was followed by sharp declines (Blue spots)
  5. On Balance Volume (relationship between buying and selling pressure) of Dow Jones Industrials has fallen to a new low (Yellow spots) (Not yet “finally” confirmed by Transports)


If On Balance Volume chart of Transport Index falls to a new low there can be no argument: The US equity market has entered a Primary Bear trend

Bloom Observation:

One needs to be circumspect about technical analysis nowadays because of the so-called Dark Pools of computer generated trading transactions that are not reported. It is for that reason that technical “confirmations” become far more important than in the days that preceded the insider trading of algorithm driven computers which benefit from advance information. Nevertheless, it seems reasonable to argue that five technical confirmations is sufficient to arrive at a reliable conclusion. The world is entering a new and uncharted era of economic activity.  The time has arrived when Finance Ministers and Treasurers of sovereign countries need to face the fact that the Central Banking assumption – that structural and controlled inflation can be sustained ad infinitum – is flawed. Economic forecasts by models that are predicated on this assumption can no longer be trusted.

My understanding (and expectation) of the above is what led to the decision to write and publish my two fact-based novels, (in 2008 and 2012) which attempt to explain how we got into this economic mess; and which also make some suggestions (for broad based and deeper discussion by the community at large) as to how we might claw our way out of it. They can be acquired in e-book format from either Amazon or Barnes & Noble, depending on your format requirements.  

Bottom line: Energy (not money and banking) is the beating heart of all economic activity, and the “Energy Return on Energy Invested” (EROI) of fossil fuels has been deteriorating since the late 1970s. Coal is an environmental pollutant, Peak Oil has passed, shale oil and tar sands are merely distractions, and natural gas is a temporary fix that will begin to lose economic traction around 2030. According to the various converging models I have been examining (and developing), humanity has between 10 and15 years to get its energy house in order. If we fail to attain this objective, the global economy will almost certainly go into terminal decline thereafter. On the other hand (cue economist smiles) if we can succeed in this objective, then humanity might look forward to a glorious future given that the era of Artificial Intelligence will facilitate the realisation of humanity’s full potential.

Brian Bloom

Author, Beyond Neanderthal and The Last Finesse

Links to Amazon reader reviews of Brian Bloom’s fact-based novels:

The Last Finesse

Beyond Neanderthal

Beyond Neanderthal and The Last Finesse are now available to purchase in e-book format, at under US$10 a copy, via almost 60 web based book retailers across the globe. In addition to Kindle, the entertaining, easy-to-read fact based adventure novels may also be downloaded on Kindle for PC, iPhone, iPod Touch, Blackberry, Nook, iPad and Adobe Digital Editions. Together, these two books offer a holistic right brain/left brain view of the current human condition, and of possibilities for a more positive future for humanity.

Copyright © 2015 Brian Bloom - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Brian Bloom Archive

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