Category: Stocks Bear MarketThe analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, December 30, 2016
The US stock markets spectacularly defied the odds in 2016, soaring after both the UK’s Brexit vote and US presidential election. Both actual outcomes were universally feared as very bearish for stocks before the events. These contrary stock rallies have left traders feeling euphoric, convinced stock markets are impregnable. But with stock valuations hitting bubble levels in an exceedingly-old bull, a major bear still looms.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 25, 2016
6 Charts That Show We Are in a Long-Term Stocks Secular Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
As I look out over the coming years, I am convinced that we’ll see the blowing up of the biggest bubbles in history—including those of government debt and government promises. And it’s not just in the US, but all over the world.
That will lead to an eventual global crisis of biblical proportions. Although, it isn’t clear what the immediate cause of the crisis will be.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Three Ways Traders Can Spot a Stocks Bear Market Before it Bites / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
A bear market is a disheartening market scenario for most traders and investors because it connotes a season of losses. A bear market is technically defined as a market condition in which securities decline 20% or more from their previous highs. A bear market is more troubling than a market correction because a correction refers to a 10% decline from previous highs. In fact, a correction is more like peeping into bear territory while a bear market can be likened to living inside a bear territory.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2016
Stock Market Elliott Wave Count, Economic Cycle and Equities Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
As you know a picture is worth 1000 words so consider this short yet detailed post a juicy 2000+ word report on the current state of the stock market and economic cycle.
The charts below I think will help you see where the US stock market and economic cycles appear to be.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 26, 2016
The SPX topped out one year ago, on May 20th, 2015 at 2134.72. One year has gone by in the SPX and has still not made a new high. It could be many years before we breach that high!
The SPX chart below indicates why it is not making any new highs and why a trend change is due any day, now!
From the lows of 2009, the SPX has risen in a parallel channel while never breaking/closing below it with the exception of the beginning of this year at which time it broke down the channel and then closed below it. However, it has since recovered, as indicated in the chart below, however, it is facing significant overhead resistance in the 2110 levels.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 04, 2016
Stocks Russell 2000 Index Completes Significant Stocks Bear Market Signal / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
This article presents an analysis of the Russell 2000 index which is a US small-cap stock market index covering the bottom 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 index.
- The US Russell 2000 stock market index was commissioned in 1984 and has been in use for 32 years, along with the Russell 1000 index and the Russell 3000 index.
- Recently, at the end of Q1 2016, the Russell 2000 index completed a key bear market signal.
- Throughout the 32 years of the Russell 2000 index, this bear market signal has only been recorded once previously, and that was in early 2008 at the start of the previous major downturn often called the Great Recession.
- Price projection calculations indicate that the Russell 2000 has much further to fall, perhaps leading the major large cap US indexes down.
- There is some evidence to suggest that this downturn of the Russell 2000 may continue for a further 12 to 24 months before reaching a final bottom.
Tuesday, March 08, 2016
The biggest rallies occur in bear markets and equities have had an impressive run after leaving behind a double-bottom in January and February - but the “end is near”. In election years, March is a seasonally strong month for equities but this year, the March rally got started early in the first half of February. Several signs point to a top either last Friday or sometime this week.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 07, 2016
Ken Ticehurst writes: Our forecast algorithm is currently predicting a global stock market rout to begin in earnest over the next few weeks and months, below is our monthly forecast for the S&P 500 which we believe is about to enter a correction lasting until early 2017.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 28, 2016
The market started the week at SPX 1918. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 1947. After that it pulled back, aided by two gap down openings, to SPX 1891 by Wednesday. Then helped by two gap up openings the market rallied to SPX 1963 by Friday, and ended the week at 1948. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.55%, the NDX/NAZ gained 1.80%, and the DJ World index gained 0.90%. Economic reports for the week were neutral. On the uptick: Q4 GDP, durable goods, the FHFA, personal income/spending, the PCE, and existing home sales. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence/sentiment, new home sales, the WLEI, GDPn, plus weekly jobless claims increased. Next week’s reports are highlighted by the FED’s Beige book, the ISM’s and monthly Payrolls. Best to your week!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Learn Why 2015 Was a Key Transition Year for Stocks, Early Stages of Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Steve Hochberg explains why he thinks we're in the early stages of a bear market
Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg talks to Moe Ansari on Market Wrap Radio. You'll hear his take on what we've seen in the markets so far in 2016 -- and why Steve thinks 2015 was a "transitional" year.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 20, 2016
An eventful holiday shortened week. The market started the week on Tuesday at SPX 1865. After gap up openings on Tuesday/Wednesday the SPX reached 1931. After that it pulled back to 1902 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.7%, NDX/NAZ gained 3.7%, and the DJ World index gained 3.8%. Economics reports for the week were again biased negative. On the uptick: the PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, GDPn, plus weekly jobless claims were lower. On the downtick: NY/Philly FED, NAHB, housing starts, building permits, leading indicators and the WLEI. Next week we get the second estimate to Q4 GDP, the PCE, and more housing reports.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 13, 2016
Another wild week! The market started the week at SPX 1880. After a gap down opening on Monday the market dropped to SPX 1828, but reversed course in the afternoon. By Wednesday it turned slightly positive for the week when hitting SPX 1882. Thursday, however, started off with a gap down opening as the market hit a new downtrend low at SPX 1810. By late Thursday into Friday the market was rallying back up again, and ended the week at SPX 1865. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.10%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%, and the DJ World index was -2.70%. Economic reports for the week were biased negatively again. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, GNP, plus the budget and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment, investor sentiment and the WLEI. Next week, after a Monday holiday, we get reports on Industrial production, FOMC minutes, the Housing market and it’s Options expiration.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 06, 2016
The Stocks Bear Is At The Door, Part 1: Momentum Stocks Getting Crushed / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
One of the common transitions that bull markets go through as they age and die is a narrowing of leadership. As formerly strong sectors begin to stall out, investors shift into whatever is still looking good — that is, whatever still has upward momentum. Eventually capital becomes concentrated in just a few names. Then those stocks roll over and the game ends.
This time around Big Tech was the final category of momentum play, and it ended up attracting astounding amounts of money from both the usual suspects like hedge funds and some new suckers like the Central Bank of Switzerland, now a major holder of Apple shares.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
The Next Generational Bust Is Coming, Stock Market 70% Collapse / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear MarketOil can’t seem to get a break. After falling just below $27 last week, oil finally rallied back to $32 before falling back to just under $31 on Tuesday. An oversold bounce was naturally due, with perhaps a bit more to come. But the oil market’s doing exactly what I said it would – cratering!
Meanwhile, in la-la land, stocks have been so focused on the decline in oil prices that they just ignored the other big trigger for a stock decline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Another volatile week! The week started off at SPX 1907, traded down to 1876 on Monday, then rallied to 1917 on Wednesday before the FOMC statement. After the statement was released the market traded down to SPX 1873, retested that low on Thursday, then rocketed higher on Friday to end the week at SPX 1940. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.05%, the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%, and the DJ World index gained 2.10%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, the FHFA, consumer confidence, new/pending home sales, the Chicago PMI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: durable goods, Q4 GDP, consumer sentiment and the WLEI. Next week we get reports on the PCE, the ISM’s and monthly Payrolls.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 24, 2016
The week started off at SPX 1880. After a Monday holiday the market gapped up to SPX 1901 on Tuesday, and then immediately headed lower. On Wednesday the market gapped down at the open, hit a new low for the downtrend at SPX 1812, and then began to rally. The rally continued through Thursday and Friday with the SPX clearing 1900, and ending the week at 1907. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.05%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.60%, and the DJ World gained 0.90%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the uptick: existing homes sales and the Q4 GDP estimate. On the downtick: the NAHB, CPI, housing starts, building permits, leading indicators, the WLEI, the Philly FED, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week the FED meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and we get our first look at Q4 GDP.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
And it's happened before, too -- just think back to the 2007-2099 financial crisis
On Wednesday (Jan. 13) CNBC reported that,
Read full article... Read full article...
"Almost $3.2 trillion has been wiped off the value of stocks around the world since the start of 2016, according to calculations by a top market analyst. U.S. stocks are now off $1.77 trillion, while overseas stocks are down $1.4 trillion."
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Technical Evidence Indicates Major Price Movement Just Getting Started!
Stocks around the globe were pummeled again last week.
This is no surprise to our subscribers as our predictive trend analytics model gave us clear technical evidence that important multi-year highs had completed back in the middle of 2015.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 16, 2016
First things first. An equity bear market has been confirmed on Friday by OEW. The market started the week at SPX 1922. After three gap up openings the market gyrated its way up to SPX 1950 by Wednesday, then started to head lower. Thursday also had a gap up opening, and the market recovered to SPX 1934. Friday, however, we had a big gap down opening and the market traded down to SPX 1858 before recovering to end the week at 1880. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 2.20%, the NDX/NAZ lost 3.15%, and the DJ World index lost 3.0%. Economic reports for the week were nearly all negative. On the uptick only Consumer sentiment. On the downtick: export/import prices, retail sales, the PPI, the NY FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, business inventories, the WLEI, the GDPn, plus the treasury deficit and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get reports on the Philly FED, the CPI, and Housing.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 15, 2016
The US stock markets have suffered their worst early-year losses in history in young 2016, an ominous proof that a major trend change is underway. The Fed’s new tightening cycle is already slaying recent years’ extraordinary easy-Fed-fueled stock-market levitation. Unfortunately the only possible reckoning after such a record artificial stock boost is a long-overdue major bear market that is finally awakening.
Just a month ago, the stock markets looked radically different. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee that sets monetary policy mustered the courage to hike rates, ending exactly 7 years of a record zero-interest-rate policy. Stock traders rejoiced, interpreting the first rate hike in 9.5 years as a sign the Fed had great confidence that the US economy was improving. So they bid stocks higher that day.Read full article... Read full article...