The final opinion poll of the EU Referendum campaign by YouGov was released at 10pm just as the polls closed and the counting began, putting REMAIN in a clear 4 point lead on 52% against LEAVE on 48%, which is what the story that the mainstream press is running with given that the first significant results won't be known for at least another 3 hours.

However, a momentum analysis of the opinion polls literally paints a picture of the polls really being too close to call effectively neither LEAVE or REMAIN having momentum on side going into voting day, flip flopping around the winning line on release of each new poll.

However, the opinion polls are just one aspect of the EU referendum results expectation spectrum as the following summery illustrates-

Financial Markets - REMAIN

Stocks and sterling have literally soared in advance of the voting day, effectively discounting a strong REMAIN victory,

Betting Markets - REMAIN

Similarly the bookmaker odds are discounting a large REMAIN victory, as evidenced by earlier today's Betfair exchange market odds of LEAVE on 7.1 against REMAIN on 1.1, which converts into an implied probability of 90% for a REMAIN win.

My Forecast - LEAVE

Against this is my forecast as of 12th of June, a conclusion based on year long analysis that includes more than 120 articles and more than a dozen videos for a LEAVE victory on 51.3% against REMAIN on 48.7% (12th June 16 - EU Referendum Forecast)

Therefore as things stand just after the polls have closed then on one side of the scale are the bookmakers, financial markets and pollsters all signaling a REMAIN outcome. Whilst tipped up in the air is my forecast for a LEAVE win.

We'll, we will likely find out in a few short hours time whether the political scales are about to violently swing in the direction of LEAVE or stay firmly tipped in REMAINs favour as the actual votes are counted.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.