Donald Trump has been having a disastrous time following loss of the 1st Presidential debate to Hillary Clinton and then leak of his 1995 tax return as illustrated by the betting market. However, now there is sliver of hope for Trump's campaign as his running mate, Mike Pence beat Tim Kaine in the Vice Presidents debate as the post debate odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour.

Trump could learn a lesson or two from Pence on how to win debates, which apparently is NOT by going on the defensive as Trump repeatedly did to salvos from Hillary but by just completely ignoring the attacks and instead go on the attack or try to win the audience by telling them what they wanted to hear. Though of course "Mr Know it All" Trump listens to NO ONE!

Whilst the opinion polls show little shift with Hillary on 45% with Trump on 41%. However, the betting markets such as betfair had witnessed a steady fall in the probability for a Trump election win. For instance just prior to the 1st Presidential debate Trump had rallied to his best standing of 2.88, immediately following the debate that had widened to 3.35, and peaking at 4.05 just before the VP debate which converts into just a 21% probability of winning the election, down from a peak of about 35%. Now the latest odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour by falling to 3.90, so this could mark the turning point for Trump after a disastrous 10 days.

US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market

Date	Time (BST)	Hillary	Trump	Comments
25th Sept		1.58	3.05	Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept	2am	1.57	2.88	Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept	4am	1.44	3.35	Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept	3am	1.45	3.45	Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept	9pm	1.39	3.75	Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct	2pm	1.37	3.85	Still little sign of Trump recovery
4th Oct	9pm	1.35	4.05	Trump continues losing trend
5th Oct	5am	1.36	3.90	Pence wins VP debate

My recent video analysis gave several suggestions of what Trump could do to reverse his losing position going into the second debate and where I warned of his Achilles heel being his tax returns and the Trump organisation that lacked financial transparency which if revealed could blow his chances of winning the election as illustrated by today's NYT story, as I am sure an army of journalists will now be intensifying their efforts to get their hands on more tax returns out of Trump Tower.

For the reality of what a Trump Presidency would look like see -

And as for my forecast for who most probably will win to become the next US President which is not based on the polls or bookie odds then watch:

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.