Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts - 8th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine - 8th Sep 24
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Demand Comeback - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications - 8th Sep 24
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now - 6th Sep 24
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors - 6th Sep 24
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off- 6th Sep 24
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES - 6th Sep 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 - 3rd Sep 24
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency - 30th Aug 24
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income - 30th Aug 24
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE - 30th Aug 24
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? - 30th Aug 24
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve - 30th Aug 24
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? - 30th Aug 24
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary - 30th Aug 24
The Consequences of AI - 24th Aug 24
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? - 24th Aug 24
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future - 23rd Aug 24
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke - 23rd Aug 24
RIP Google Search - 23rd Aug 24
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? - 23rd Aug 24
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 - 23rd Aug 24
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? - 23rd Aug 24
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch - 23rd Aug 24
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Aug 24
My GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! 2024 - 23rd Aug 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls!

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Jun 09, 2017 - 04:14 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The Opinion pollsters have done it again, have got another major election very, very badly wrong. What's worse is that before the start of the campaign were projecting a 20%+ lead that forecast a landside Tory election victory of well over 400 seats, that had convinced a technocratic Theresa May to call a snap general election, that is likely to cost her job as Prime Minister.

I am sure Theresa May is pondering when she should resign, likely immediately given the dismal results as per the BBC's revised forecast of their Exit poll adding 8 seats to their earlier Tory tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats estimate from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives, hence triggering Theresa May's resignation.


Worthless Opinion Polls Conned Theresa May into Calling a General Election

The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the opinion polls for some time, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since they convinced Theresa May to call a BrExit snap election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:

UK General Election Forecasts - May 2017

Forecasts Date Tory Labour Lib SNP
Iaindale.com 7th May
389
165
17
53
YouGov 16th May
361
213
Lord Ashcroft 12th May
412
Electoral Calculus .co.uk 5th May
404
171
8
45
Election Forecast .co.uk 10th May
411
158
8
53
Forecastuk.org.uk 10th May
383
183
8
52
Spread Betting Markets (IG) 12th May
397
160

 

Whilst I repeatedly warned that the pollsters had been consistently wrong for every major election since 2010 and that it was highly probable that they were very wrong again as illustrated by my following video:

And where subsequently the pollsters have exhibited extreme volatility in their poll numbers that has translated into a forecast of seats range for the Tories from 302 to 420. Whilst here are the final seat forecasts just prior to Thursdays vote, including my own based on the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks and separately based on my house prices based forecast which proved by far the most reliable forecaster for the outcome of the 2015 General Election, and once more looks set to be the closest to the actual outcome.

UK General Election Final Forecasts

Forecasts Date Tory Labour Lib SNP
Nadeem Walayat - Forecast Conclusion 4th June
358
212
12
46
Nadeem Walayat - House Prices 3rd June
342
* YouGov - Forecast 1 (Hung) 7th June
302
269
3
48
*YouGov - Forecast 2 (Con Maj) 8th June
362
     
Lord Ashcroft 6th June
357
Electoral Calculus .co.uk 6th June
361
216
3
48
Election Forecast .co.uk 6th June
375
198
8
36
Forecastuk.org.uk 6th June
350
225
8
44
Spread Betting Markets (IG) 7th June
371
199
12
46
BBC Exit Poll - 10pm 8th June
314
266
14
34
BBC Exit Poll - Revised 2.15am 9th June
322
261
13
32
Actual Result - 3am 9th June

*YogGov forecast two opposite outcomes so that they can claim to call the election correctly whatever the result.

As is usually the case most of the pollsters tend to cluster around one another, and where the betting markets just tend to follow what the pollsters are implying in terms of polling percentages converted into seats. The only real outlier for this election is YouGov which has consistently been discounting the Tory seats total by about 50 to 60 seats compared to the other polls based seats forecasts.

But YouGov being YouGov always slip in a get out of jail card for apparently they have TWO forecasts posted on their site at the same time, one as stated above and another posted just a few hours before the polling stations opened stating that they expected the Tories would be be returned with an increased majority. Which once more illustrates the point that pollsters such as YouGov are bullshit artists! How can anyone make an informed decision based on the pollsters if they are forecasting two significantly different outcomes at the same time!

Whilst here is the analysis towards my forecast conclusion:

UK General Election 2017 Final Seats Per Party Forecast Conclusion

So in summary my UK General Election 2017 forecast conclusion was for the Conservatives to win the election with a 66 seat majority by increasing their seats total from 331 to 358. Whilst I expected Labour to drop 20 seats to 212 with the Lib Dems gaining 4 to 12, and I expected the SNP to lose 10 seats, dropping from 56 to 46.

a

My earlier analysis pointed out that there tends to be a 10 seat error between the exit poll and the final result, hence the steady deviation from the BBC Exit poll forecast of 314 seats at 10pm.

UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy

The BBC and other broadcaster pollster based exit polls proved very accurate for the 2001, 2005 and 2010 general elections in determining the outcome in terms of which major party would form the next government, which also proved far more accurate than the opinion pollster forecasts such as that of the US election forecasting guru Nate Silver who got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong as I covered at then time - Nate Silver UK General Election Forecast 2015 as Wrong as 2010?.

However the BBC exit poll for 2015 was very badly wrong as it forecast a hung parliament when the result was for a Conservative outright election victory. And even worse was to come for the EU Referendum, though there it was not really an exit poll rather YouGov's last throw of the dice that got the result very badly wrong with all hell breaking loose on the financial markets shortly after midnight as the actual results were pointing in the exact opposite direction.

So in conclusion expect tonight's BBC exit poll to be out by about 10 seats for the Tories, i.e. if the BBC Exit poll is 340 then the actual result would be closer to 330 or 350. Which in terms of my forecast of 358 in this example the BBC would be under estimating the actual outcome.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Yuriy
12 Jun 17, 22:34
Brexit is just a beginning

And we though this will be over with brexit.

This is just a beginning of UK comedy.....


Nadeem_Walayat
13 Jun 17, 07:06
Chaos

Its not comedy it's chaos.


Yuriy
13 Jun 17, 19:03
perspective

Not if you are looking at it from a european perspective.

:-)


Nadeem_Walayat
14 Jun 17, 06:14
europeans

Yeh, I bet a lot of smiles in europe.

This could even kill brexit.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in