The XHB chart shows that US home builder stocks have been significantly under performing against the S&P since April 2018. With little signs of change in the deviation in the trend, as the S&P trades towards new all time highs the XHB is a good 15% below its early 2018 high. All of which confirms that the stock market is discounting US housing market weakness that is only recently starting to be reflected in the house prices indices. And given that US house prices are likely to briefly go negative then that should convert into the XHB trading to new lows below $30 (current $40.66)

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

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Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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