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Coronavirus Targeting 1.14 million Infections, 24,000 Deaths by End February - Global Pandemic Day 57

Politics / Pandemic Feb 04, 2020 - 01:13 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

As of today the World, mostly China has 20,450 confirmed cases of Coronavirus infections. Where the UK's tally currently stands at 3 as Friday's number of 2 was increased by 1 following the UK flying in infected persons from Wuhan. Though likely there are more than a dozen unreported infections in the UK courtesy of 120,000 Chinese students. Whilst those that say that the Coronavirus is over hyped and not that worst than the usual winter flu do not understand that the Coronavirus death rate of 2.1% is about 200 TIMES more deadly than the usual winter flu! That and 200 times as many people falling seriously ill and thus overwhelming healthcare systems!


Meanwhile back in Wuhan the two 'hospitals' built at record speed are virtually complete as per CCP propaganda to treat those infected with the Coronavirus.

However, if one actually looks at what is being built, what we see resembles a quarantine prison camp with self contained cells that include iron bars on windows to prevent escape, for it looks like the infected are to be locked in at 2 patients per cell, and likely the only care they will receive is food, water and anti fever med's via hatches so it will be left largely be up to the patients own immune systems to fight the virus rather than healthcare.

Of course this makes sense as the primary objective of the Chinese government is to bring the pandemic to a halt by all means which can only be done if those who are infected are entirely isolated from the rest of the population hence the Quarantine Camp comprising 1000 cells, that could isolate at least 2000 patients.

Thus the purpose of this facility is to concentrate those ill with the virus from the general population. However the consequences will be that those who end up in such facilities are likely to have a less than 50% chance of surviving the virus. Given that they are likely already gravely ill, and in need of dedicated healthcare that they will not receive due to the number of patients and the risk of infecting medical staff.

Whilst sitting here several thousands of miles away from the epicentre of the outbreak we may criticise China for such Draconian measures but China is literally fighting for its survival in attempts to prevent the outbreak from running into the tens millions so prepared to sacrifice the ill that they don't have the capacity to treat so as to prevent a far larger number of deaths if they succeed in bringing the pandemic to a halt.

Coronavirus Pandemic Trend Forecast

My analysis of 28th Jan concluded forecast expectations for the virus to spread exponentially first across China and then across the world to target 1 million infections by the end of February resulting in 35,000 deaths.

Forecast youtube Video : https://youtu.be/c1rXvXMD3jc

Latest youtube video update as of Pandemic Day 55.

Coronavirus Pandemic Day 55 Outbreak Trend Analysis

The above graph illustrates the trend trajectory forecast infections to only really start taking off globally mid February when the number of officially declared infections are expected to exceed 100,000 and deaths 2,500. So we are still some 10days away from when the Coronavirus pandemic really starts to take off globally and starts to overwhelm healthcare systems that is the real reason why the number of deaths will greatly start to expand.

Coronavirus Infection Spread Day 57 - 3rd Feb 2020 Update

The forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 3rd of Feb 2020 vs actual:

Coronavirus Infection Spread Day 57 - 3rd Feb 2020 Update

The forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 3rd of Feb 2020 vs actual:

  Infections Deaths
Forecast for 1st Feb 17868 553
Actual - 1st Feb 20650 427
% Diff 115% 77%

Were this trend to continue into the end of February 2020 then the number of infected would increase to 1.15 million, whilst the number of deaths would fall to 23,896. So the latest data implies a wider spread but a lower mortality rate.

However, these are still the very early days of the spread of the Coronavirus, especially given that there are large susceptible populations groups with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India that announced it's first infection Friday where outbreaks could soon overwhelm heathcare systems. Also that a vaccine is still a good 4 months away so far too late to have any impact on this pandemic.

Meanwhile this is what China and Asia's infections map currently looks like, which in my opinion grossly under estimates the number of infected, hence why the numbers are increasing exponentially. If I had to guess a number, I would say that MORE than 200,000 are infected as of today.

Meanwhile this is what China and Asia's infections map currently looks like, which in my opinion grossly under estimates the number of infected, hence why the numbers are increasing exponentially. If I had to guess a number, I would say that MORE than 200,000 are infected as of today.

Given the continuing spread of the virus in China and the forecast trend trajectories then the rest of the world is currently still in the calm before the storm stage with likely several outbreaks that risk over whelming healthcare systems as has happened in China.

My latest Silver price trend analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020 has first been made available to Patrons who support my work (Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020).

  • Silver Price Trend 2019
  • Silver Investing Strategy
  • Gold Price Trend Forecast Implications for Silver 
  • Gold / Silver Ratio
  • Long-term Trend Analysis
  • Trend Analysis
  • MACD
  • Elliott Waves
  • Formulating a Trend Forecast
  • Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Recent analysis includes :

Whilst my next soon to be completed analysis will be a detailed trend forecast for the Stock Market.

Scheduled Analysis Includes:

  • UK Housing market series
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
  • Bitcoin trend forecast
  • Euro Dollar Futures
  • EUR/RUB
  • US House Prices trend forecast update

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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