Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Rise And Fall Of Gold Stocks

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021 Aug 21, 2021 - 08:03 PM GMT

By: Kelsey_Williams

Commodities

The rise and fall of gold stocks is a story of hurt and disappointment. That is because most of the time gold stocks are in decline.

Below are four charts which depict the sad story. Following each chart I will make some brief comments…


HUI – 1 Year Chart
NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (INDEX)

The HUI is back to its low reached earlier this year in March, at just under 255. Where it goes from here is anybody’s guess but you don’t need trend lines to see the progression of lower highs and lower lows.

HUI – 5 Year Chart
NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (INDEX)

The chart above shows that gold stocks are at their lowest levels since the peak in August 2020. Also, we can see that the HUI rested briefly at this same level when gold stocks were on their way up last year after the collapse in March 2020.

There is a possible (imaginary) line of support which dates back to the summer of 2018.  A drop in gold stocks from here could fall from here and touch that line of support which comes in below 200 for the HUI.

HUI – 12 Year Chart
NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (INDEX)

The longer-term chart above provides additional confirmation of possible support just under 200 for the HUI. The line of support (same as in the previous chart) actually dates back to HUI lows reached in 2015-16.

However, even at 255 currently, the HUI is sixty percent lower than its peak in 2011 of almost 650. On its own, that is bad enough. Compared to the price of gold, it is terrible.

The HUI to Gold Ratio illustrates how poorly gold stocks have performed relative to gold…

HUI (NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index) to Gold Ratio

When gold peaked at a new high of $2060 oz. last August, the HUI peaked at 350 which was lower by forty-five percent from its 2011 peak.

The current HUI to Gold Ratio is .14 compared to a high of .64 in November 2003. The steep downtrend is intact and looks to have renewed itself.

Below is a chart of the XAU, another gold stock index which is narrower in scope; but it tracks similarly to the HUI…

Both the HUI and the XAU compare similarly to gold, but not favorably. Either index could be used to illustrate the poor absolute and relative performance of gold stocks.

SUMMARY

Gold stocks, generally speaking, underperform gold on the upside and drop more than  gold on the downside.

The current trend of underperformance has been in place for the past two decades.

If you are speculating on new highs for gold and want to own it, then buy it. Don’t expect gold shares  to outperform gold itself.

If you own gold stocks, consider switching to physical gold or a gold ETF.

If you are gambling on a reversal of the current trend, or you are just stubborn, you need to be prepared for the possibility (likelihood?) of a near-term drop in gold stock prices of 20-25 percent.

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

By Kelsey Williams

http://www.kelseywilliamsgold.com

Kelsey Williams is a retired financial professional living in Southern Utah.  His website, Kelsey’s Gold Facts, contains self-authored articles written for the purpose of educating others about Gold within an historical context.

© 2021 Copyright Kelsey Williams - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in