Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

A Mixed Stock Market - Still

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Sep 06, 2021 - 10:28 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX correction underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at agratianj@gmail.com

 

A Mixed Market -- Still

Cycles:  Looking ahead!

7-yr cycle – Last lows: 2009-2016.  Next low:  ~2023

Market Analysis (Charts, courtesy of StockCharts)

DJIA-NDX Daily

The two charts below make obvious the difficulty of analyzing the “market”—as a whole!  Do you focus on the DJIA which has risen 4% since that vertical line was drawn on 5/18/21, or on the NDX which rose 17% during the same time period (a little over 4 months).  And, if the Dow did not have MSFT and AAPL as its components, would it even have risen that much!  The “POOR” S&P, which is caught in the middle as a hybrid of the two has to be seen as the most representative of the whole market, and this is why it has been, and continues to be the focus of our analysis. 

SPX daily chart

The trend from the March 2020 low has been so steep, that drawing a trend line from that low and connecting it with the latest correction low only produces two points and is therefore pretty much meaningless.   That is why we have arbitrarily chosen to draw a trend line from the 3723-consolidation low, because it connects three points; and that makes it more reliable.  I believe this is the trend line that will have to be broken before we can experience a significant correction in the “market”.

Now that we are getting very close to the 2020 P&F projection low of 4550, we may not have to wait too long before this takes place; although there is no guarantee that SPX will stop at that target, on the dime!  P&F projections are best used as approximations, even though they, more than not, are filled exactly as projected, especially in smaller phase projections.  Also, if you look at the DJIA chart above, it is obvious that it seems more and more ready for a reversal and, judging by the degree of deceleration which has been taking place since the current phase started in mid-June, it may not be too long before that occurs. 

To that effect, it may behoove us to focus on the short-term trend and the current position of the short-term cycle, which is what we will do when we analyze the 60m chart, next!

  •  
  • SPX hourly chart
  •  
  • SPX has a fairly regular short-term cycle which is shown on the chart below and puts the last cycle low on 8/19 at 4368.  Since then, the index has risen about 167 points to 4535 and is about half-way through its cycle.  The next low is anticipated to come in approximately two weeks.  The deceleration which has taken place over the last week may be indicative of a topping formation, or it may simply be the effect of a mid-cycle pullback which was expected to occur in this time frame.  It’s now a question of how much more of an upward push the second half of that cycle will produce.  Short-term cycles are prone to being affected by news which has a catalytic effect on their phase and there is plenty of that to go around at this time, so let’s see if, for instance, Friday’s disappointing news report belatedly alters its performance in any way.  Divergence has formed in the indicators but has not yet resulted in a sell signal.  The price would have to drop below the horizontal line (4515) to show developing weakness which could start the cycle on its down phase.
  •  
  • USD (dollar) dly
  •  
  • The dollar may have ended its attempt at challenging the corrective channel’s upper trend line, or it may simply be a pause in that process.  A drop below the 50-dma which is currently providing support for the pullback could send the index back down toward the 90 lows. 
  •  
  • GDX (gold miners) (dly)
  •  
  • GDX is profiting from the pullback in the dollar and has risen to the top of its own corrective channel.  It too has found resistance at the 50-dma, but Friday’s close was near the top of its daily range which makes Monday an important day to see if it can overcome the MA and challenge the top of the channel.
  •  
  •  
  • PAAS (dly)
  •  
  • PAAS has also profited from the retracement in the dollar and may be in a little stronger position than GDX because it has already risen well above its 50-dma and is trying to clear the 200-dma.  Next week will be important for this index as well, to see if it can rise clear of the downtrend line which it has already broken.
  •  
  • BNO (Brent oil fund) dly
  •  
  • BNO has reacted to the devastation in the oil industry caused by hurricane Ida.  It has not yet conclusively established a new uptrend and may simply be expanding its top formation.  The new trend line has been created which it has to hold.
  •  
  • SUMMARY
  •  
  • Last week stated: “SPX is drawing ever closer to its long-term projection of 4550”, and this is where the last week of trading has taken it.  It can now choose to expand up to, or a little beyond it, depending on how much upward potential remains in the short-term cycle.
  •  

Andre

Free trial subscription

With a trial subscription, you will have access to the same information that is given to paid subscribers, but for a limited time-period.   Over the years, I have developed an expertise in P&F charting (price projection), cycles (timing), EWT (structure), and general technical analysis which enables me to warn subscribers of pending reversals in market trends and how far that trend can potentially carry.  For a FREE 2-week trial, subscription options and payment plans, I encourage you to visit my website at www.marketurningpoints.com.

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in