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Category: Stock Market 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, July 30, 2021

The Inadvertent Debt/Inflation Trap – Is It Time for the Stock Market To Face The Music? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

What happens to a global economy after 10+ years of global central bank efforts to support a recovery attempt after a massive credit/debt collapse originates from a prior credit/debt housing bubble?  What happens to global economies when they become addicted to easy money policies and central bank activities that support greater and greater risk-taking? What is the end result of these actions after more than 10+ years of excess and central bank support for the markets?

Let’s play this out a bit to think about how the current market environment may be similar to what happened in the mid/late 1990s and see if we can come to any real conclusions. Remember, we are using our research and technical analysis skills to play a “what if” scenario in this research article.  Our current trading systems have not warned us of any major Bearish price trends of price collapses that may take place. Our systems are still trading the US markets based on current market trends.  This research is completely speculative in the sense that we are trying to identify “what if” scenarios based on events in the recent past.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 30, 2021

Fed Stocks Nothingburger, Dollar Lower, Focus on GDP, PCE / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

It was a rather pedestrian FOMC Statement day on Wednesday. There is GDP data incoming, and the widely Fed-followed Core PCE Price Index data comes out on Friday. What can we take away from the FOMC Statement and press conference?

Rates unchanged. No rush to raise interest rates. Inflation should persist.

No surprises here.

However, there was some notable price action in the US Dollar Index during Wednesday’s session. The US Dollar Index initially rose on the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM. During the press conference, the USD fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation should persist for several months. It is noteworthy price action and can be a forward-looking indicator for the direction of other asset prices.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Next Time You See "4 Times as Many Stock Market Bulls as There Are Bears," Remember This / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI


See how stock investors' "historic optimism" served as a warning

After a 12-year uptrend, just when caution might be in order, investor psychology has remained highly and stubbornly optimistic.

As the July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides Elliott wave analysis of major U.S. financial markets, said:

Large traders are more exuberant than ever. On June 11, large trader buy-to-open call purchases jumped to 45%, a new record.

A highly bullish outlook was also expressed in this July 10 Marketwatch headline:

The bull market in stocks may last up to five years -- here are six reasons why

Notice that the headline's suggestion is that the bull market has just started.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

Looking back to the early part of the week, we all saw something that should not shock anyone who is actually thinking in an intellectually honest manner about the market.

You see, the market saw a nice drop on Monday. And, the news media was at the forefront "explaining" how the market fears regarding the Delta variant of Covid is what caused the decline, and would likely take it much lower. It made me wonder if they polled all the market participants to come up with that reason for the decline, or if they simply made it up as they go?

Well, I think it is quite clear that they simply made it up as they go, which is what they always do. And, investors were quite eager to foolishly adopt their reasoning as usual. Did you?

At some point, investors have to begin thinking for themselves and ignore what they are fed about the market (pun intended). Most of the reasons we believe the markets move are based upon pure fallacy. Those that propagate those fallacies are never burdened by the actual facts. Rather, whatever the news of the day seems to fit the narrative of the market direction is utilized as a reason for a market move, even if it is wholly untrue.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX May wat to push all the way to the top projection before making an important correction.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 25, 2021

Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

Bear markets tend to follow this particular sentiment

In many global regions, economies are flourishing.

For example, here are two headlines about the U.S.:

What America's Startup Boom Could Mean For The Economy (npr.com, June 29)
Inflation Rose in June as Economic Recovery Continues (WSJ, July 13)

The goings-on in the United Kingdom provide another example. Employers in the UK are hiring people at the highest rate in more than six years. Plus, business and consumer spending are climbing swiftly -- at the fastest clip in a quarter of a century.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 24, 2021

Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

Equities traded quietly higher in Thursday's NY session. Simultaneously, bonds were bid rather firmly, sending interest rates even lower. What is going on beneath the surface?

Greetings. I hope this article finds you and yours well. Today, we are taking a look at some additional market indicators and internals to get an unbiased perspective on things.

First, I want to preface things by mentioning that I am not suggesting that I am fully bearish on the S&P 500 or stocks right now. However, I am taking more of a cautious stance at the moment.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Most traders don’t really have a solid strategy in place to protect assets and assist them in knowing when to pull risk capital away from market trends.  If you are trading on MEME stock content, variable technical strategies or flying by the seat of your pants when making trading decisions, you are probably very concerned and emotional about the recent downside price rotation in the major markets right now.

What is happening is that the markets are attempting to potentially start a reversion event – a price rotation.  This rotation in price may turn into a bigger price correction or downtrend at some point in the near future. But right now, we are only seeing moderate price rotation in the US and global markets.  Should you be concerned about this spike in volatility and the timing of this correction? This a good and valid question. Let my team and I try to help you regarding what may happen in the near future.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 18, 2021

Will the US stock market’s worsening breadth matter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

US stock market breadth is fading

The US stock market has bad breadth as participation thins out markedly. Below are a few examples.

Equal weight SPX is fading headline SPX per this chart which we feature occasionally in NFTRH but update the status of most weeks.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 12, 2021

Peak of the Fake Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Michael_Pento

We are probably very close to the peak of this ersatz bull market and economy. Peak vaccination distribution, along with the peak optimism about the vanquished pandemic and the re-opening of the economy. U.S. corporations are experiencing peak profit margins. The economy has enjoyed peak fiscal and monetary stimulus and those tailwinds will soon become strong headwinds. Also, peak tax relief is now in the rear-view mirror; and higher taxes are around the corner. Finally, peak asset valuations have arrived and the associated wealth effect is now waning. 

Confirming this view is a series of slowing economic data--a reduction in the rate of change in growth and inflation. For now, this is not a crisis or a recession; but is set to become one next year.  Here are some facts and data:

Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures were virtually unchanged. Despite that fact that job openings are at all-time high, at the same time, initial jobless claims are running at a level that is 75% above/higher than the pre-pandemic level. This begs the question: why is the US laying off people at a rate that is three quarters greater than before COVID-19, despite that fact that the economy has reopened? After all, the pandemic crisis is now a year and a half old; shouldn’t layoffs be almost non-existent?
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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 12, 2021

Stock Market Probing for a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has likely reached the end of an intermediate phase. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, July 09, 2021

Stock Market Summer Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I'll take a more in-depth look at the stock market trend in a forthcoming analysis. However as things stand the stock market is starting to move out of my original forecast window for a summer correction (9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 06, 2021

S&P 500 Stock Market Rally – Are We Nearing The Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Are the US stock markets poised for a reversion price event in the near future? My research team and I believe $4400 on the S&P 500 may be a key psychological level that many traders are unaware of in the immediate term.  Some very interesting Fibonacci and Gann dynamics are at play as we watch the excess rally phase continue to drive markets higher.  Will the Q2:2021 earning season prompt a blow-off top setup or will the markets continue to rally higher?  Continue reading to learn why we are cautious of the $4400 level on the S&P 500 and why you may want to prepare for a moderately big volatility event if our research is correct.

There are a number of key technical components to our research related to the $4400 target peak level for the S&P 500.  First, the Fibonacci correlation to the rally phases that have taken place throughout the bullish price waves (1-3-5) since the 2009 bottom.  We’ll get to that in a minute.  Second, we believe our Gann cycle phase research and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc research suggests the current market rally is very over-extended to the upside.  In other words, we believe this excessive upside price trending is likely to revert, quite strongly, at some point in the near future. 

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 05, 2021

Stock Market Projection Reached - Cycles Topping / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has likely reached the top pf its intermediate phase. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 04, 2021

Where Will The US Stock Markets Take Us Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we watched the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rally to the end of Q2:2021, many traders asked themselves “Will this rally continue throughout the early part of Q3:2021 and beyond?”.  Although we don’t have a crystal ball to tell you exactly what is going to happen, our price modeling systems, predictive modeling tools and trend analysis systems suggest we will likely see continued upside price trending through at least July 15th to 21st. After the middle of July, we may see another pullback in trends as the markets shift away from the reflation trade expectations and start to react to 2021 holiday/COVID expectations.

The reflation trade rally has been very impressive over the past 12+ months.  One simply can’t argue with the price range, trend and volatility that we’ve seen throughout all of 2020 and into the first half of 2021.  My team and I expect that volatility to continue, but at a slowly decreasing range into the end of 2021.  We also expect a price rotation/reversion may still happen in 2021 that may prompt an 8% to 12% downside price correction (possibly bigger).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 02, 2021

Why This Stock Market Index May Be Headed for a "Bumpy Ride" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"Money losers tend to be high-beta issues"

On Friday, June 25, the Russell indexes underwent their annual rebalancing.

In other words, stocks were moved from the Russell indexes like the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 based on their size.

This event usually coincides with a big jump in trading volume -- like it did on June 25 -- but generally it's an annual occurrence of little note.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 01, 2021

Stock Market Bull Run Ignoring Inflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reached new highs powered by technology, even as value or Russell 2000 took a daily breather. With VIX going nowhere, and the put/call ratio turning complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher, and not even emerging markets are derailed by the strong dollar. While yesterday‘s stock market upswing was a defensive one as the credit markets and tech internals reveal, there is little to upset the cart – Thursday‘s ISM manufacturing will probably show solid expansion, and it would be only Friday‘s non-farm payrolls (better said what effect these could have on the Fed‘s labor market rationale for keeping the punch bowl available) to bring about volatile trading.

With the Fed support intact and fiscal one not retreating either, with inflation expectations not spiking, the current data are disregarded to a degree. Incorrectly in my view as Friday‘s:

(…) PCE deflator ... figure aligned with the inflation camp much better, yet the marketplace arguably expects better inflation data ahead - the transitory inflation thesis is the mainstream one, but I‘m still of the opinion that inflation wouldn‘t decline as meaningfully, especially when measured through CPI, PPI, and import-export prices, proving more persistent than generally appreciated.

The Fed is behind the curve in taking on inflation even according to El-Erian, and its monetary actions support both the Treasury markets and the red hot real estate. The lull in Treasuries is likely to last into the autumn, and the ensuing yields increase would reflect both the economic recovery and newfound appreciation of inflation. I maintain we‘re still in a reflation – a period of economic growth stronger than inflation – in a multi-year economic expansion, and also that inflation will surprise those considering it transitory (as if this word had any meaning still attached, after all the time length redefinitions). As a side note, if only consumer price inflation was measured without substitution, hedonistic adjustments, and owner‘s equivalent rent. In this environment, tech is unlikely to be derailed, and value will play catch up.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 28, 2021

Stock Market Final try at SPX 4310? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX Fell short of its base projection of 4310 but may be trying to reach it again. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 25, 2021

Are The US Major Stock Market Indexes Rolling Over In An Excess Phase Peak Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, I published a research article on Bitcoin suggesting there may be a bigger downside price move setting up – breaking support near $30k and extending the Excess Phase Peak pattern that we warned about back in November 2020.  Today, my team and I wanted to alert you that the recent price rotation in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Transportation Index COULD setup in an early stage (Phase #2) peaking formation similar to what started the recent down trend in Bitcoin.

The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2).  If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently move moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trend in the near future.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Stock Market Calling the Fed‘s Bluff / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 risk-on trading yesterday confirmed that it would have indeed been too early to write off value stocks. Financials, energy sprang higher, accompanied by the as of late usual tech suspect – the heavyweights though merely defended gained ground. Coupled with the credit market perspectives, it was a clear risk-on day as evidenced by the VIX and put/call ratio. The markets have turned on a dime, ignoring the Fed messaging of prior week as shown in the surging CRB index, reversing dollar and Treasuries:

(…) Given the ease with which precious metals and then select commodities such as copper or soybeans tumbled, rate hikes might appear to be baked in the cake now – but in reality, it‘s the unyielding inflation that would prove rather persistent than transitory.

The Fed did the bare minimum, acknowledging inflation in passing, implying it would go away on its own. But it‘s more complicated than that – bank credit creation isn‘t strong, and had been declining before bond yields bottomed in Aug 2020. Are banks reluctant to lend, or customers to borrow? The result of production not ramping up as wildly as expected (reopening trades) is compounding the disturbed supply chains and commodity prices rising (cost-push inflation). Add to that job market pressures, and you have a recipe for inflation being more transitory than originally thought. In other words, cyclical and structural as import-export prices hint at too.

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