Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks


Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021 Dec 04, 2021 - 02:21 PM GMT

By: Kelsey_Williams


Over the past year, the price of gold has made repeated attempts to move higher. Looking at a one-year price history of GLD in the chart (source) below, there is  a series of progressively lower highs which seems to indicate staunch resistance to higher gold prices…


Before forming any opinions about what to expect for the next for gold, we need to look at some more charts with longer-term histories. Below is a two-year chart of GLD…


Here we can see that the series of progressively lower highs for gold (GLD) is almost sixteen months old. We can also see that there have been no credible attempts to break through the highs reached in August 2020.

Now lets look at a five-year chart (source) of physical gold prices…

5 YEAR GOLD PRICES (average monthly closing prices)

In this chart we can see that the past sixteen months of progressively lower prices appears to be a consolidation phase. The question, then, is whether gold prices are consolidating before moving higher – or moving lower.

The next chart is a ten-year history of gold prices…


After the lows for gold in late 2015, prices moved progressively higher until August 2020. If we connect the low in November 2015 with the low in September 2018 there is a line of support that currently comes in at $1375-$1400 oz.

If gold is simply marking time before a retracement back to that same line of support, then prices could fall significantly and still maintain the overall uptrend which began in November 2015.

There is a zone of support for gold prices between $1200 – $1400 oz. where it traded for six years between June 2013 and June 2019. If gold prices were to fall to that area, that zone of support should keep prices from falling much after that. Except…

Not everything is determined by technical factors. Since higher gold prices are a reflection of loss in purchasing power of the US dollar, then a period of relative strength for the dollar would translate to lower gold prices anyway. There are no other fundamentals for gold.

Also, once gold has caught up to the effects of previous inflation, it tends to just mark time. We seem to be in one of those periods now.

Unless the US dollar continues to lose purchasing power at accelerated rates over an extended period of time, don’t expect higher gold prices. 

As far as gold is concerned, the only thing that will take its price higher is further lasting deterioration in actual purchasing power of the US dollar. 

In the meantime, gold prices could see considerable downside action. The $1375-$1400 area is a reasonable near-term possibility. (also see What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar)

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

By Kelsey Williams

Kelsey Williams is a retired financial professional living in Southern Utah.  His website, Kelsey’s Gold Facts, contains self-authored articles written for the purpose of educating others about Gold within an historical context.

© 2021 Copyright Kelsey Williams - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in