Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Markets Crash Back to Bear Market Lows-Yorba TV Show

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Oct 28, 2008 - 01:45 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGot your seatbelt and crash helmet on?  After a hair raising rally this morning, the markets have reversed back down to test the lows.  The SPX came within 6 points of making a new low in October this morning.  I would not be surprised to see a much lower SPX by the end of the day.  What amazes me is that he bullish sentiment published by the American Association of Individual Investors is well over 50% for small investors.  In other words, a lot of investors are getting sucked back into the market too soon, trying to pick a bottom.   


Let's review the pennant formation today.  The first thing you'll notice is the flagpole from the upper left, which ends in a triangle shaped formation or pennant.  This is not an Elliott Wave Triangle, which has only moderately bearish implications.  Elliott measures the target of the triangle by the width at its widest spot, which, by the way, in the DJIA is approximately 2000 points or 25%.  That would give us a target of approximately 6600.  The Pennant formation uses the length of the flagpole as its target, which is 3700 points in length, giving the pennant target of approximately 4900, or a potential decline of 43%.

The SPX Elliott Triangle target would be approximately 690, a mere 23% decline from its pivot.  I wish it were correct.  Instead, the pennant target has the potential to take the SPX to 468, a mere 47.5% from yesterday's pivot point of 893.      

Let me warn you that the odds of reaching or exceeding these targets in the DJIA and the SPX is 62%.  Even the most aggressive speculators should take profits early and often, so that you don't get caught in the rebound, which will also be fierce.  I suggest using the Elliott Wave targets as the first profit-taking point, with possibly 50% of your investment taken off the table.  At a 30-35% decline, take another 50%.  You are on your own for the last profit taking point.  Don't hold out for the last dime because these markets have a name for speculators who don't know when to get out.  It's called snacktime!

Briefly, gold is still in decline.  We just got a sell signal with a target of 640 or below.  I suspect that this will be a short term los with a fairly substantial rally to 720-740.  The final decline by the end of the year suggests a minimum target of 550 and a high probability low below 500.

West Texas Crude has a near-term bottom of at least 51.  My model suggests oil will be at $40 per barrel by the end of the year. 

This week's show on www.yorba.tv is packed with information about the direction of the markets. I'm on every Tuesday at 4:00 pm EDT . You can find the archives of my latest programs by clicking here .

Please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Claire or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski,
President and CIO
http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in