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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Currencies

Friday, December 03, 2021

Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This is Part 2 of 2 of my extensive analysis that maps out the potential trend trajectgory for some of the most manipulated markets on the planet, the CRYPTO ALT COIN MARKETs

So do check out the recently posted part 1 first if you have not already done so - Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 03, 2021

Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery.  Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while global inflationary and economic concerns are peaking.  What’s next?

Why Traders Need To Consider Future Risks

This recent article caught my attention as I caught up on today’s morning events (Source: Yahoo! Finance). It highlights the incredible inflationary trends occurring because of disrupted supply channels related to the original COVID-19 disruption. Could you imaging what would happen if a new virus strain prompted further lockdowns and labor/supply disruptions for another 12+ months – or longer?

The massive amounts of stimulus and money printing that has taken place over the last 4+ years by global central banks may be acting as an anchor for growth and starting to weigh down global markets. Easy money policies lead individuals and corporations to borrow more and more capital expecting growing returns from sales. What happens when we start to see a mild economic slowdown take place, possibly complicated by inflationary price trends and consumers that pull away from making big purchases?

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Commodities

Friday, December 03, 2021

The Masters of the Universe and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Michael_J_Kosares

That small group of investment bankers – those Tom Wolfe dubbed the Masters of the Universe – made its fortune trading U.S. Treasuries. It still plays the same role today it always has but no longer occupies the center stage for Wall Street’s bond market. Instead, that role now belongs to the Federal Reserve. Since the introduction of quantitative easing in 2008, it has built a $5.57 trillion stockpile of U.S. Treasuries  – a holding equal to almost 20% of the nearly $29 trillion national debt.  Even more troubling, it purchased a mind-boggling 60% t0 80% of the federal debt issued since 2010, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.

“At 10:10 a.m. most workdays on Wall Street,” writes Liz McCormick in a recent Bloomberg column (under the unsettling headline, One Trader Calls the Shots in the Treasury Bond Market) ­officials at the Federal Reserve wade into the Treasury bond market. For the next 20 minutes, they proceed to snap up bonds of all shapes and sizes. They’re impervious to price moves, and they never sell. An indiscriminate bond-buying machine, they’ve now amassed a $5.5 trillion stockpile of the debt.” Wolfe’s Masters of the Universe have been replaced by one omnipresent, spectacularly powerful, and as it turns out, fickle Master of the Universe – America’s central bank. 

“For almost two years,” says Gillian Tett, in a recent Financial Times editorial, “a frightening question has haunted the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. No, this is not whether the Fed can engineer a smooth exit from quantitative easing; nor whether this is the right moment to switch the governor (and policy). The question I am referring to is whether the U.S. Treasuries market is robust enough to handle the shocks that might arise from those first two problems. For while the U.S. government bond market used to be considered to be the world’s most liquid and deep asset class, in March 2020 that cozy assumption was smashed apart.”

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 03, 2021

This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Stephen_McBride

Editor’s note: Today, we’re sharing an important adaptation from Chief Analyst Stephen McBride’s recent issue of Disruption Investor

One that’s more important than any one specific stock recommendation…

This is about a simple mindset shift that can make or break your retirement, so you’ll want to read closely.

***

“Most American investors now expect the stock market to crash.”

That Business Insider headline flashed across my screen recently.

Over half of American investors think stocks are headed for a crash, according to a survey by insurance giant Allianz.

New data from The American Association of Individual Investors paints a similarly gloomy picture. The number of stock market bulls is near its lowest level in a decade.

Judging by how investors feel, you’d think the market is struggling…

But did you know the S&P 500 hit new record highs last week?
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Politics

Friday, December 03, 2021

Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? / Politics / Climate Change

By: S_N_Chatterjee

The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, which was held at the SEC Centre in Glasgow, Scotland, has just ended. After two weeks of intense debates among world leaders, there are a few encouraging signs and mainly disappointments standing out.

Topics related to climate change and global warming have been in the spotlight over the past couple of years and as temperatures continue to rise, the COP26 showed a renewed pledge to continue working on limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This was a target set at the Paris climate summit held in 2015 and the latest deal reinforces its importance.

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Companies

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Youtube and the wider internet is full of Peloton fan boys, yes the product may be good but that does not mean the stock is in any fit shape to park ones hard earned wealth into, not unless one is gambling. Which is why whenever I was asked about Peloton and other similar over hyped growth stock my response tended to be that it is far too high risk for me. We'll now all those who don't do the maths got to feel the pain of what it is like to be invested in such stocks that dominate the likes of Cathy Woods ARK funds.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.

Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.

“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.

Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.

Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”

Source: WSJ

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The emergence of the new Omicron coronavirus strain is roiling financial and precious metals markets. Investors fear government health officials will order new lockdowns to try to contain it.

Never mind that previous lockdowns don’t appear to have worked. Some of the most draconian were imposed by Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Her state now records the nation's highest seven-day rate of infections.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets  / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Canada may no longer be an official part of the United Kingdom (although the Canadians remain loyal to the Queen!), but there’s one thing that the two countries still have very much in common: the penchant for the slot machine, having a wee flutter on sports, and putting a cheeky fiver on red. 

Both Canadians and Brits alike have gambling options aplenty and market revenues consistently hit new highs every single year. 2020 was a bit of an outlier for obvious reasons, yet the market has recovered incredibly well since in both countries. 

Yet despite the obvious similarities, there are several key differences between how the gaming market operates. The following are the most significant; if you’re a gambler, it’ll pay to know them. 

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Firstly, crypto's are VERY HIGH RISK, the crypto bugs constantly talk about how manipulated fiat, stocks and precious metals are hence they seek their financial freedom in decentralised crypto currencies. However in my opinion crypto currencies are probably the most manipulated markets of the lot where huge amounts of coins reside in whale wallets that could be dumped onto the markets at any time. Then there are the inflation rates, crypto coin printing on an epic scale that would even make the Fed's Powell blush where comparatively low prices against all time highs can easily fool unsuspecting crypto investors into buying garbage with masked inflation rates in excess of over 100% that thus can not sustain bull runs to capitalise on until the inflation rates moderate to under 10%, such as that of Filecoin where given the plethora of pump content out there one is hard pressed to determine the true inflation rate that apparently is currently running at 160% against that of say Bitcoin's inflation rate of about 1.6%.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Day That Changed the World?

S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions.

Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Even though the technicals have been predicting this for several months, people were still taken aback by gold’s fall — that’s why they are booing.

While the precious metals received a round of applause for their performances in October, I warned on several occasions that the celebration was premature. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks resuming their 2021 downtrends, investors’ cheers have turned into jeers in short order.

To explain, I warned previously that the GDX ETF could rally to or slightly above $35 (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12, moving one cent above it). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, I highlighted just how quickly the air often comes out of the balloon. For context, the blue vertical dashed lines below depict the sharp reversals that followed after the GDX ETF’s RSI approached or superseded 70.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave / Stock-Markets / Coronavirus 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.

NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data to support my conclusions.

Even though I’m not dismissing some external event, like a sudden US Fed move or some foreign market event, historically, the US markets enter a reasonably strong Christmas/Santa rally phase at this time every year. The increasing volatility usually starts to build in September/October – reaching a peak in October/November every year. December’s trends are traditionally much more muted and consolidated.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Submissions

Cryptocurrency in all of its complexity and ambiguity has seen yet another successful year. 

Following the several peaks the crypto market has undergone in 2021, with May presenting itself to be the most volatile out of all. Novice and veteran traders have gone to extreme lengths to cash in on the craze, as U.S. investors made more than $4 billion from Bitcoin (BTC) in 2020.

Crypto is looking more and more as the digital currency of tomorrow with more than 6,000 cryptocurrencies already accessible on the market. While many raise scepticism concerning the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the market size has surged on numerous occasions and we can expect an even more exciting year ahead. 

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Companies

Monday, November 29, 2021

Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich / Companies / Metaverse

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Greetings from the red ticker green ticker stocks metaverse where my latest analysis is focused on how to the metaverse. What is the metaverse? Well VR such as in this video is part of the metaverse then there is augmented reality and then the virtual worlds such as Roblox and Decentraland. Metaverse is nothing new for it is a derivative of AI that I have previously referred to gaming and virtual reality.

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Housing-Market

Monday, November 29, 2021

Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Submissions

Investing in real estate has the capability to steadily generate income, and is a viable long-term investment option. Then again, investing in real estate is a serious undertaking, and you have to be doubly sure before coming to a decision. You can use a real estate investments API to discern whether the time is ripe for buying or selling.

In the US, the real estate sector saw a steep rise in sales even during the pandemic last year. So considering it a seller’s market, the main question is whether you should invest in real estate in 2021 or not.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Silver Long-term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver during the post pandemic gold rush managed to break above resistance at $21 that propelled the price 50% higher to just over $30 which the price is now correcting from, and silver being silver the trends tend to be deep and messy, hence why Silver has just about retraced the whole of the breakout move.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have surged higher recently, starting to mean revert out of deep capitulation lows.  Those improving technicals have started thawing the bearish sentiment that plagued this tiny contrarian sector last summer.  The silver stocks’ latest earnings season wrapping up in mid-November revealed how these miners are actually faring operationally and financially.  Do fundamentals justify more gains?

The silver-stock world is really small, with primary silver miners deriving over half their revenues from producing the white metal increasingly-rare.  Only a handful of exchange-traded funds track this forgotten sector, led by the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF.  While also miniscule with just $1.2b in net assets in mid-November, SIL is the best-available sector benchmark.  The silver stocks have had a wild ride this year.

Their price action closely mirrors gold stocks’, as silver’s dominant primary driver has always been gold.  So SIL’s swings this year closely tracked those in the leading GDX gold-stock ETF like usual.  Silver stocks were enjoying a solid young upleg last spring, with SIL surging 27.5% between late March to early June.  But silver and thus silver stocks were sucked into gold’s sharp mid-June selloff on Fed-tightening fears.

Gold’s taper tantrum for the Fed starting to slow its epic quantitative-easing money printing unfolded in the months leading into that actual announcement.  Between mid-June to late September, several bouts of heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling crushed the entire precious-metals complex.  The resulting silver-stock carnage hammered SIL 30.2% lower climaxing in an ugly capitulation, fueling serious bearish psychology.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

It appears that the US markets didn’t find the Thanksgiving turkey very tasty this year.

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