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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

U.S. Bond Market Holds Bottom / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market was a touch stronger last week as bonds managed to hold the bottom of the recent range again.  The fundamental news was a mixed bag, the FOMC offered no surprises so as a result we had a fairly uneventful week with a narrow trading range heading into the holiday season.  The yield curve is not budging from its record steep shape as the Fed made it clear again that they don’t plan to hike their benchmark overnight rate any time soon.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 21, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Hit, TBT on Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

We have been discussing for weeks that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) is warning us that longer-term rates are heading higher, but we just don’t know exactly which of the many reasons will come to the fore. Today, bonds are getting hit, perhaps because the healthcare bill in all its splendor, expense and unintended consequences looks like a done deal.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 18, 2009

Crumbling U.S. Treasury Bond Market Suggests Spike in Interest Rates 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Larson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe holiday season is here — and in just a couple of weeks, 2009 will fade into the history books. I truly hope that you and your family enjoy these happy times.

But before I sign off for the year, I feel obligated to address one of the biggest threats to your wealth that’s looming in 2010. I’m talking about the very real prospect of “failed” Treasury auctions, plunging bond prices, and a big spike in long-term interest rates.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 11, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Interest Rate Yield Curve Steepest Since 1980 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market is starting to show signs of concern over budget deficits and the corresponding supply of treasuries. Please consider Treasury Yield Curve Steepest Since at Least 1980 After Auction.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Short Treasury Bond TBT ETF on the Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the market awaits the results of the 30-year bond auction today, let’s notice that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) is climbing towards a confrontation with the Sep-Dec resistance line, now at 48.25, which if hurdled and sustained should trigger additional strength that tests the prior rally peak at 48.57. The 48.57 level is important technically because if the TBT’s take out that resistance plateau, the Aug-Dec rounded baselike pattern will project an eventual target zone of 53.70-54.20.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 05, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Setting Up for Advance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe 10-Year Treasury Bond yield commanded our attention this past week, and we see it as one of the most important charts entering 2010. Why? Purely from a technical perspective, let's notice that three distinct instances in the past 12 months, yield pressed to 3.50% or lower, only to see an upside reversal back above 3.50% very quickly thereafter. In other words, the "beachball effect" kicks in under 3.50%. With the foregoing as a backdrop, let's also notice that yield has been declining since June even though nonfarm payrolls have been improving.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Long-Term U.S. Treasury Yield Setting Up for Powerful Advance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The daily chart of the 10-Year T-Bond Futures could be one of the most important charts we discuss entering 2010. Why? Purely from a technical perspective, let’s notice that three distinct instances in the last 12 months YIELD pressed to 3.50% or lower, only to see an upside reversal back above 3.50% very quickly thereafter. In other words, the “beachball effect” kicks in under 3.50%. With the foregoing as a backdrop, let’s also notice that YIELD has been DECLINING since June even though nonfarm payrolls have been improving.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Treasury Bonds Signal Inflation Pressures Moderating / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe composite indicator that measures the trends in gold, crude oil, and yields on the 10 year Treasury has moderated significantly. See figure 1 a weekly chart of the S&P500 with the indicator in the lower panel.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 23, 2009

Fundamental Backdrop Remains Supportive of Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market crept up toward the middle of the 118 to 124 trading range of recent months as per our advertisement in last week’s issue.  3 month Treasury Bills are back to negative yields again heading into the year end, just like last year.  While 3 month Bills are back under 0, the swap market is telling us that sovereign risk is on the increase.  Credit Default Swap spreads for most of the largest developed nations (think G7) have widened noticeably over the past few weeks.  With the front end literally at 0, it looks like long rates will dictate the shape of the yield curve for the rest of the year. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 16, 2009

Are U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Headed Lower? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am beginning to see signs that there is a high likelihood of this occurring over the next couple of weeks. Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Ultra Short Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury (symbol: PST); this is an ETF that corresponds to the inverse of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury index.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 13, 2009

Buying Government Bonds is a Mugs Game / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_S_Rozeff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSuppose that I am thinking about buying a bond and its yield is 3.5 percent. This is a nominal yield before taxes and before accounting for price inflation. To estimate my real return, I need to estimate future price inflation. If, for example, I think that price inflation is going to be 3.0 percent, then I expect my before-tax yield will be only about 0.5 percent.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 08, 2009

Municipal Bonds A Dangerous Investment For 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Abraham

Many times just using logic an investor can steer away from problems. It seemed forever municipal bonds were considered one of the safest investments. One did not get rich by investing in municipal bonds however they were consistent and the default possibility was almost not a possibility. Fast forward to 2009 municipal bonds have to be one of the scariest investment choices. All one has to do is to look at State by State finances to be aware.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Are US Treasuries About to Rally… or Crash? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHistorically, because the US was the #1 superpower (and the largest economy in the world), Treasuries have generally held to be one of the very few “risk free” investments on the planet. Consequently, Treasuries are where money runs to hide when the rest of the financial world is in trouble.

You can see this in the below chart: as soon as the Financial Crisis began in earnest with the credit market lockup in July 2007, 30-Yr Treasuries broke above 112: a point of historical resistance. This told us two things:

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InvestorEducation

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Observations / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe only asset moving up over the last week has been longer term Treasury yields. This is odd especially in the face of equity market weakness and especially since demand for Treasury bonds has outstripped supply over the past year. So why are yields moving up now? Maybe yields are rising in anticipation of buyer fatigue as this week's record bond issuance comes to market.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

U.S. Interest Rates Set to Rocket with Falling Dollar? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

See our comparison chart between Cash Dollar Index (DXY) and the Proshares Ultrashort 20+ Year T-bond, ETF (NYSE: TBT), in which I am trying to show that right now the vulnerable juxtaposition of the dollar is creating nervousness among bond traders and investors. Once the bond vigilantes get their meat hooks into the bond market, the Fed will have one heck of a challenge on its hands.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs) Breakout / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI last mentioned Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPs in an article written on September 10 entitled, "If You Don't Like 'em, Then Don't Trade 'em". In that article, I discussed the fact that there were other places to look for that "fat pitch" besides U.S. equities. If you didn't like the risk in equities, then play in another sandbox.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 01, 2009

U.S. Treasuries TLT on the Move / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

As we discussed with subscribers last evening, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) looked like they were in a high-level consolidation ahead of a thrust to the upside, which is exactly what has transpired so far here today, likely in reaction to disappointing data on initial Jobless Claims ahead of tomorrow’s monthly Employment Report.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Are U.S. Treasuries A Bubble Ready To Pop? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe standard theory is that the price/cost of risk-free long-term debt is a function of (a) the cost of short-term debt plus (b) some function of the market's anticipation of the likely course of inflation or deflation over the term of the debt.

Governments (the Fed) can control short-term rate but they are at the mercy of markets to fix long-term rates. And of course markets are "efficient", unless of course there is a "bubble", when...Err...they are not.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

What the Fed Doesn’t Want You To Know About U.S. Debt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed’s FOMC announcement came out…

We got exactly what I expected, a kind of wishy-washy, “hedging our bets” statement from the Fed. You have to remember that Bernanke was Greenspan’s right hand man for much of the bubble days of the ‘90s and early ‘00s, so the guy is an expert at walking both sides of the line when it comes to policy and public statements.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 21, 2009

Bond Funds Price Change vs Volatility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStock volatility versus price change gets a lot of financial media attention, but bonds don’t get so much.

Bonds are an important part of portfolios that deserve investigative attention too.

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