Monday, March 19, 2018

Bonds, Inflation & the Market Amigos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Bonds segment of NFTRH 491 took a turn to tin foil territory to allow the letter writer to expose newer subscribers to his ideological views and thus, bias. #491 also got pretty talky on the precious metals as it did a thorough review of the sector’s status, with silver’s symmetry to 2016 a very key item. Hint: An ill-fated bounce like so many that have come after the 2016 top is not what we are looking for with the next rally, but it ain’t gonna be easy. You can check out this article for a good piece of the picture: Silver’s Equal and Opposite Symmetry to 2016 Indicates Future Sustainable Rally. On to the Bonds segment…

Monday, March 19, 2018

US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Early signs that the US Fed may be pushing the envelope of rising rates and creating pressure on banks and borrowers are starting to show up more prominently now.  One component of our research at Technical Traders Ltd. is to find data that may be overlooked or ignored by some other researchers.  We believe that any pressures or hardships related to general consumers will be seen first in discretionary debt (credit cards, autos, and entertainment/activities).  When consumers feel the debt pressure starting to build, they react by cutting back on certain discretionary spending – focusing their purchasing/paying abilities on essential items like food, human necessities (toiletries and other essentials) and maintaining essential components of their lives.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Stock Market Bulls Last Stand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 could nowcontinue until May-June.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Trade Tariff Schizophrenia / Politics / Protectionism

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Dr. D: The schizophrenia surrounding the tariff plan is really startling. But then I could just say, “the level of insanity everywhere is startling.”

Self-avowed schmartz-guys are all “doesn’t the U.S. know their empire is failing and everybody is cutting them off? What are they thinking starting trade wars with allies and raising prices???” Stop. So your argument is the U.S. is losing its influence, other nations are about to cut it off and end the trade deficit, and thereby basically halt imports? While the U.S. has no internal manufacturing? And your argument here is that, not if but when the world cuts us off we a) would like to have some steel and aluminum to build factories, washing machines and tanks or b) do NOT want to have access to the basic raw materials of society? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Putin Flip-Flops Like A Drunken Whore On Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Legalization / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

Whenever I am asked, “How should governments treat cryptocurrencies” my general response is the following. Who cares?

You might as well ask me what the Japanese Yakuza or Mexican cartels should do about cryptos. I don’t really care.

Not that the Yakuza or the cartels are anywhere near as bad as governments. I apologize to them both for even making that insulting insinuation.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

How to Legally Manipulate Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation

By: Science_Investing

Rationale Behind Quantitative Easing

The Fed embarked on asset purchases, which they call quantitative easing or QE, during the global financial crisis 2007-2008. The move was motivated by a complete loss of confidence in the financial system. As a result, investors and financial institutions feared losses due to large scale bankruptcies. Liquidity dried up completely and money was hoarded in allegedly safe places. The Fed stepped in with various measures and effectively returned confidence to markets. Quantitative Easing was among these whilst it was applied for the first time in US monetary history. 

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Submissions

Buildadv writes: For stock market investors, the coming week is likely to see the Federal Reserve move back into focus, stealing the spotlight back, at least briefly, from worries about tariffs and political turmoil. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which will conclude Wednesday and is widely expected to deliver the first rate increase of 2018, will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s first as chairman of the central bank, and investors will be eager to find out just how much he deviates from the legacy of Janet Yellen, whom he succeeded in early February.

While market participants have fully priced in a quarter-percentage point rate increase on Wednesday, investors will parse the wording of the accompanying statement and Powell’s subsequent news conference. According to Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, the U.S. economy is estimated to have expanded at a 1.8% clip during the first quarter of this year, which is twice the average rate for this period throughout the recovery. But higher rates are still likely to dent some industries that are seen as bond proxies, such as utilities, telecoms or consumer staples. These sectors have already been underperforming and may continue to do so for some time, according to Jaffee. Since the start of the year, telecoms, utilities and consumer staples are down between 4.5%-6.5%.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Before we get to my technical take on the prospects for the Bitcoin price, apparently the crypto currencies were subject to a FUD attack on Friday, where FUD stands for 'Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt', that seems to be the automatic response of the crypto crowd to any bad news. So what happened to trigger this avalanche of FUD panic? Well Friday morning warnings popped into the email box of millions of PayPal customers including myself warning of dire consequences if we did not " Cease any activity that results in the trading or transfer of cryptocurrency", the full text of which follows below:

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Strong Earnings Growth is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500’s earnings growth is projected to be very strong in 2018: mid-high teens (i.e. 15-18%). Growth tends to come down as the year goes on, but even then the earnings growth rate will still exceed 10% for this year.

This is the second year in a row in which the S&P 500’s earnings growth exceeded 10%. The S&P’s earnings growth in 2017 was 13.1%.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

The War on the Post Office / Politics / US Politics

By: Ellen_Brown

The U.S. banking establishment has been at war with the post office since at least 1910, when the Postal Savings Bank Act established a public savings alternative to a private banking system that had crashed the economy in the Bank Panic of 1907. The American Bankers Association was quick to respond, forming a Special Committee on Postal Savings Legislation to block any extension of the new service. According to a September 2017 article in The Journal of Social History titled “ ‘Banks of the People’: The Life and Death of the U.S. Postal Savings System,” the banking fraternity would maintain its enmity toward the government savings bank for the next 50 years.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Forget the CPI, Inflation is Here. And the Markets Know It / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The attempts to mask inflation are reaching truly ludicrous proportions.

Bloomberg reports that the “guts of the US CPI show key inflation weakest in years.”

What are the “guts?”

Housing rents… which the CPI claims are falling.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

The Bank of Japan bought 75% of JGBs in FY17… and Yields Are Still Up / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: Graham_Summers

The insanity of Central Bankers knows no bounds.

The latest indication of just how far “down the rabbit hole” the financial world has gone comes from Japan where it was announced that the Bank of Japan bought 75% of Japanese Government Debt issuance in FY17.

That is not a typo. Japan’s Central Bank bought $3 out of every $4 in debt Japan issued in fiscal year 2017. And it now owns 40% of Japan’s total debt outstanding.

Friday, March 16, 2018

GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, trading at prices seen when gold was half or even a quarter of current levels.  So many traders assume this small contrarian sector must be really struggling fundamentally.  But nothing could be farther from the truth!  The major gold miners’ recently-released Q4’17 results prove they are thriving.  Their languishing stock prices are the result of irrational herd sentiment.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  They serve to re-anchor perceptions.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Nationalism, Not the Russians, got Trump Elected / Politics / US Politics

By: Richard_Mills

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
Nationalism. Populism. Nativism. All of these words have been used to describe the reason for Donald Trump's unlikely rise to power, and while each is defined a bit differently, they all share the same over-arching principle: that Trump tapped into an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with status quo politics, of excessive liberalism, of pandering to minorities, of Washington insiders doing the bidding of high-paid lobbyists, and most importantly, a sense that Americans were losing their country to elites who no longer represented the majority.

In early February, 13 Russians and three Russian companies were charged with interfering in the 2016 presidential election, adding fodder to the theory, often espoused by the left, that Russian intelligence agencies conspired to change the outcome of the election because they favored Trump over Hillary Clinton. The indictment said that Russians created bogus Internet postings, posed as American political activists, and bought advertisements, all with the intent to “sow discord in the US political system.”

Friday, March 16, 2018

Has Bitcoin Bought It? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

Punch-drunk from a series of crunching blows, dazed and confused, staggering for the ropes. It’s hard not to get the image of Bitcoin being pummeled by the market, getting the wind knock out of it. But is this picture true? Instead of focusing on what swirls around in the media, a cautious investor would instead reach out for what might drive their profits.

Google has moved to ban Bitcoin-related adds. This shouldn’t be particularly surprising, given the fact that there’s been precedent in the form of Facebook pursuing similar actions. In an article on CNBC, we read:

Bitcoin prices briefly fell below $8,000 on Wednesday following news that Google, the world's largest online ad provider, plans to ban cryptocurrency advertising.

Facebook, the second largest online ad provider, took similar action in January.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Crude Oil Price – Who Wants the Triangle? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finished the day only 23 cents above Wednesday closing price. Such small daily changes that we observe recently don’t look too encouraging for oil bulls or for the bears. However, to dispel boredom, we rummaged deeper in the charts and we found something that may interest both sides of the market’s battle. Curious?

Nevertheless, before we get to our little surprise, we would like to draw your attention to news from the IEA. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said that global oil supply increased by 700,000 barrels per day from a year ago in the previous month. Additionally, we find out that supplies from producers outside of the OPEC will grow by 1.8 million bpd this year versus an increase of 760,000 bpd last year (mainly due to the rapidly growing production in the U.S.).

Friday, March 16, 2018

PayPal Cease Trading Crypto Currency Bitcoin Warning Email Sophisticated Fake Scam? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A warning popped into my email in box from PayPal a few hours ago, warning of dire consequences if I did not " Cease any activity that results in the trading or transfer of crypto currency". the full text of which follows below:

Friday, March 16, 2018

EUR/USD – Something Old, Something New and… Something Blue / Currencies / Euro

By: Nadia_Simmons

Since the beginning of the month all battles between bulls and bears run in a fairly narrow area, which unfortunately doesn’t create good investment opportunities. In today's alert, we looked at the broader perspective of EUR/USD and the USD Index itself, and we already have our own types where we will likely open next positions. If you do not want to miss the levels that we think about, take a look at our analysis today.

Friday, March 16, 2018

South Africa To Copy Zimbabwe Model To Hyperinflation‘Prosperity’ / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Jeff_Berwick

Doesn’t South Africa have the internet yet?  Or, even books?

The new South African finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, has just come out with an amazing plan to help the people!  He will devalue their money into worthlessness! This always works out well. 

Friday, March 16, 2018

Is Barrick Gold Bottoming? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

We have seen downgrade after downgrade on Barrick Gold (ABX) for years. Many keep looking lower and lower, with some even considering that this stalwart in the miners’ complex may even go out of business due to its debt load.

However, back in 2015, it was one of the first miners to bottom. In fact, when we saw the potential bottoming of ABX in 2015, we actually opened our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015, and the ABX was one of our first buys.