Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 03, 2008
Commodities Keel Over as US Heads for Prolonged Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
As oil prices seesawed through the past week, fresh uncertainty about the outlook for the beleaguered financial sector triggered another wave of volatility in financial markets.
With the exception of Friday, crude prices closed each day with a gain or loss of more than 1%, with US stocks doing likewise as sentiment waxed and waned on the back of a barrage of economic and corporate earnings reports. Economic data were mixed, whereas earnings were mostly better than feared. After all the action, the S&P 500 Index closed the week virtually unchanged, posting a small gain of 0.2%.
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Saturday, August 02, 2008
Payrolls and Unemployment Data Confirm US In Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 5.7% in July vs. 5.5% in June; cycle low is 4.4% in March 2007
Payroll Employment: -51,000 in July vs. -51,000 in June, net gain of 26,000 jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for May and June.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
Silver and Monetary Considerations of Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: David_Morgan
Many of you are probably too young to appreciate the full impact of the hyperinflation in Germany after WW1. It was devastating. This picture shows you the amount of paper that was equal to one silver dollar, or ¾ of one troy ounce of fine silver. After seven years of constantly accelerating inflation, the mark is finally stabilized at the rate of over 4 trillion to a U.S. dollar. The black market rate, however, was an incredible 12 trillion to the dollar at this time. The pre-inflation exchange rate for the mark was by contrast a modest 4.2 to the U.S. dollar. Can anyone say Hyperinflation? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 01, 2008
US Jobs Decline for 7th Month, Deep Revisions to Bad Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 393,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 382,000.
Friday, August 01, 2008
Bank Bailouts and Weak Economy Ensure Worsening US Budget Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The mid-session review of the federal budget released during the past week saw the White House revise its outlook for the deficit towards nominal highs. The administration is forecasting that the deficit will come in at $389 billion in 2008 and the 2009 deficit should arrive at $482 billion.
The provisional estimate is a snapshot of current spending plans that does not take into account the emerging economic reality. This year seven banks have failed, which may be a grim preview of the forthcoming problems among regional and second-tier banks. The economic slowdown has generated tax receipts through the first nine months of fiscal 2008 equal to 17.9% of GDP, which is less than the 40-year average.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
What's the Real Rate of Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: HRA_Advisory
There is a debate building around inflation. The outcome of this debate will determine the direction of interest rates and credit creation. By extension many commodity prices, especially precious metals and energy, will get direction too.
This past week saw the release of the US CPI reading for June with a “headline” increase of 1.1%. Even the much derided “no heat-no eat” Core Rate that excludes food and fuel was up 0.3% for the month. The 12-month CPI gain in the US is now 5%, and even a sustained pullback in oil prices won't cause consumer inflation to retrench much this year.
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fallacies and Lies of Bailouts as US Heads for Economic Armageddon / Economics / US Economy
By: Brady_Willett
While Elton John made us think of Norma Jean as a candle in the wind, the financial markets in 2008 bring to mind a stick of lit dynamite in a hurricane. Does an explosion loom before the unpredictable gusts finally dissipate? If so, gold may be the only answer… The Misnomer
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Shocking Downward Revisions to US GDP From Growth to Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Tomorrow, the Nonfarm Payroll Numbers are out. I made my forecast last night ahead of today's numbers. My predictions can be found in July Payroll Playbook . Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Credit Losses Keep Doubling, $400bn, $800bn, $1600bn / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Hans_Wagner
Credit is the fuel that drives the economy. If you want to beat the market or want to learn to invest, it is important to have a good understanding of important factors that affect the economy. The large loan losses banks are experiencing are limiting their ability to provide credit to help companies grow. If companies cannot grow their business, the economy will continue to be weak. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
America's Financial Collapse- It's the Economy Stupid! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Stathis
It's shocking to see so many who remain in denial about the economy, specifically the pundits. Until they see two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (a ridiculously misleading metric – see my previous article “How Washington is Fooling You With GDP Data”) they refuse to admit we are in a recession. And the media acts as puppets, repeating these same lines without scrutinizing the data. Who do these people think they're kidding? If you're running a show designed to help investors, shouldn't you be ahead of the curve instead of behind it? Serving as broadcasters for inaccurate data that's been manipulated to fool the public does nothing to aid an audience looking for real investment guidance. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
United States Abandoning Capitalism for Socialism / Economics / Government Intervention
By: John_Browne
Over the past few decades, the United States has steadily evolved from a nation of ‘producers' to one of ‘consumers'. The change has been celebrated by politicians and economists as proof of America's arrival at the top of the global economic food chain. In reality, the development has depleted the nation of its hard-earned wealth, and has led us to the brink of ruin. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Washington Manipulation of GDP Data to Hide Recessions / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Mike_Stathis
I continue where I left off – discussing just a few of the ways Washington tries to fool us by its misuse and manipulation of data. Washington likes to remind critics that Americans enjoy the highest living standard in the world. As evidence of this, government “experts” discuss statistics such as GDP growth, employment, wealth, income and wage growth, and other economic data without defining exactly what they are referring to or explaining all the assumptions used. In Part 1 of this series, we saw how hedonics can alter GDP and inflation data. Here we look at some additional problems with GDP. After you read this piece, I hope you will agree that the misuse of GDP data as an indicator of economic strength has been one of the biggest errors made in the field of U.S. economics. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Curing US Inflation, Zimbabwe Style / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Three hundred billion here, $300bn there, and pretty soon you're talking about a wave of dilution hitting cash-holders, bond owners, stock investors and US Dollar earners everywhere..."
YOU'D BE FORGIVEN for thinking they planned it together last night.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Central Bankers Safety Confidence Trick as Great Depression 2.0 Looms / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Rising gold prices are a cold sore on the lip of central bankers. In the world of paper money, it's a clear sign something's not right
Central bankers are the keepers of the keys to the kingdom. The kingdom, however, is on the edge of bankruptcy and in danger as never before. Comparisons are now being made to the Great Depression of the 1930s. The comparisons, however, are just that.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
New York Governor Warns Of Economic and Budget Crisis / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The New York Times is reporting Paterson Warns of Economic Crisis .In a rare, brief televised address, Gov. David A. Paterson announced on Tuesday afternoon that he would call the Legislature into an emergency session on Aug. 19 to address what he called an economic and budget crisis confronting New York State as a result of plummeting revenues and rising costs.
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Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Contracting S&P 500 Corporate Earnings Confirm US Recession / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Are we in a recession or are we not? The debate goes on. Take a look at the year-over-year change in operating profits of the S&P 500 corporations (see Chart 1). Profits have declined for three consecutive quarters through the first quarter of this year. Given reports of second-quarter profits to date and estimates of those corporate profits to be reported, it is a good bet that year-over-year profits will be down for four consecutive quarters. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
The Paradox of Deleveraging at the Heart of the Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
I have often commented about the problem of personal savings. We worry about the lack of savings here in the US, but many do not understand that if everyone started to save 5% of there income immediately that it would seriously impact consumer spending, pushing the US into a recession. It is a paradox, as Paul McCulley points out, that what may be good for the individual may not be good for the collective country. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
US Recession Trend Status on US GDP Growth Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: A hectic week on the economic calendar is highlighted by the initial look at second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Remember, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so doomsayers have targeted this week's release as confirmation of their pessimism.
Fortunately, the analyst consensus holds that the economy expanded at a faster pace than the 1% rate of the first quarter, putting us safely outside of recession territory. Investors get another view inside the struggling labor market where layoffs (mainly among financials) have resulted in overall job contractions for five consecutive months.
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Monday, July 28, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (July 28-August 1) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of July 28-August 1 will see a fairly significant amount of US macro data. The major releases will be clustered near the end of the week on Thursday and Friday. Thursday will see the publication of the preliminary GDP for Q2, jobless claims, Chicago PMI and the employment cost index for Q2. The week will be capped by the release of the July non-farm payrolls report and the estimate of the ISM of national manufacturing conditions for that same month. Tuesday will see the release of July consumer confidence survey by the Conference Board and Wednesday will see the ADP estimate of payrolls for July. The week will see another heavy five days of earnings statements with heavyweights such as Disney, Starbucks, Chevron and Berkshire-Hathaway reporting near the end of the week. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Bernanke Seeks a Great Depression to Test His Thesis / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mick_Phoenix
It has been a rather busy time for The Collection Agency, picking up assets in lieu of cash. Anyone need a badly treated, surplus to requirements, Bank customer desk or ten? I can do job lots.
We start off with an excerpt from The Bernanke Conundrum written on 8th May 08: