
Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, August 03, 2008
Commodities Keel Over as US Heads for Prolonged Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
As oil prices seesawed through the past week, fresh uncertainty about the outlook for the beleaguered financial sector triggered another wave of volatility in financial markets.
With the exception of Friday, crude prices closed each day with a gain or loss of more than 1%, with US stocks doing likewise as sentiment waxed and waned on the back of a barrage of economic and corporate earnings reports. Economic data were mixed, whereas earnings were mostly better than feared. After all the action, the S&P 500 Index closed the week virtually unchanged, posting a small gain of 0.2%.
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Saturday, August 02, 2008
Payrolls and Unemployment Data Confirm US In Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 5.7% in July vs. 5.5% in June; cycle low is 4.4% in March 2007
Payroll Employment: -51,000 in July vs. -51,000 in June, net gain of 26,000 jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for May and June.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
Silver and Monetary Considerations of Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: David_Morgan

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Friday, August 01, 2008
US Jobs Decline for 7th Month, Deep Revisions to Bad Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 393,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 382,000.
Friday, August 01, 2008
Bank Bailouts and Weak Economy Ensure Worsening US Budget Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The mid-session review of the federal budget released during the past week saw the White House revise its outlook for the deficit towards nominal highs. The administration is forecasting that the deficit will come in at $389 billion in 2008 and the 2009 deficit should arrive at $482 billion.
The provisional estimate is a snapshot of current spending plans that does not take into account the emerging economic reality. This year seven banks have failed, which may be a grim preview of the forthcoming problems among regional and second-tier banks. The economic slowdown has generated tax receipts through the first nine months of fiscal 2008 equal to 17.9% of GDP, which is less than the 40-year average.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
What's the Real Rate of Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: HRA_Advisory
There is a debate building around inflation. The outcome of this debate will determine the direction of interest rates and credit creation. By extension many commodity prices, especially precious metals and energy, will get direction too.
This past week saw the release of the US CPI reading for June with a “headline” increase of 1.1%. Even the much derided “no heat-no eat” Core Rate that excludes food and fuel was up 0.3% for the month. The 12-month CPI gain in the US is now 5%, and even a sustained pullback in oil prices won't cause consumer inflation to retrench much this year.
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fallacies and Lies of Bailouts as US Heads for Economic Armageddon / Economics / US Economy
By: Brady_Willett

The Misnomer
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Shocking Downward Revisions to US GDP From Growth to Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock

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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Credit Losses Keep Doubling, $400bn, $800bn, $1600bn / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Hans_Wagner

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Thursday, July 31, 2008
America's Financial Collapse- It's the Economy Stupid! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Stathis

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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
United States Abandoning Capitalism for Socialism / Economics / Government Intervention
By: John_Browne

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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Washington Manipulation of GDP Data to Hide Recessions / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Mike_Stathis

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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Curing US Inflation, Zimbabwe Style / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Three hundred billion here, $300bn there, and pretty soon you're talking about a wave of dilution hitting cash-holders, bond owners, stock investors and US Dollar earners everywhere..."
YOU'D BE FORGIVEN for thinking they planned it together last night.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Central Bankers Safety Confidence Trick as Great Depression 2.0 Looms / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Rising gold prices are a cold sore on the lip of central bankers. In the world of paper money, it's a clear sign something's not right
Central bankers are the keepers of the keys to the kingdom. The kingdom, however, is on the edge of bankruptcy and in danger as never before. Comparisons are now being made to the Great Depression of the 1930s. The comparisons, however, are just that.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
New York Governor Warns Of Economic and Budget Crisis / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The New York Times is reporting Paterson Warns of Economic Crisis .In a rare, brief televised address, Gov. David A. Paterson announced on Tuesday afternoon that he would call the Legislature into an emergency session on Aug. 19 to address what he called an economic and budget crisis confronting New York State as a result of plummeting revenues and rising costs.
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Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Contracting S&P 500 Corporate Earnings Confirm US Recession / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Paul_L_Kasriel

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Monday, July 28, 2008
The Paradox of Deleveraging at the Heart of the Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin

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Monday, July 28, 2008
US Recession Trend Status on US GDP Growth Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: A hectic week on the economic calendar is highlighted by the initial look at second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Remember, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so doomsayers have targeted this week's release as confirmation of their pessimism.
Fortunately, the analyst consensus holds that the economy expanded at a faster pace than the 1% rate of the first quarter, putting us safely outside of recession territory. Investors get another view inside the struggling labor market where layoffs (mainly among financials) have resulted in overall job contractions for five consecutive months.
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Monday, July 28, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (July 28-August 1) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas

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Sunday, July 27, 2008
Bernanke Seeks a Great Depression to Test His Thesis / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mick_Phoenix
It has been a rather busy time for The Collection Agency, picking up assets in lieu of cash. Anyone need a badly treated, surplus to requirements, Bank customer desk or ten? I can do job lots.
We start off with an excerpt from The Bernanke Conundrum written on 8th May 08: