Most Popular
1. Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs - 21st Feb 22
2.Putin Starts WW3 in Ukraine, Will Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons, China Prepares Taiwan Blitzkrieg - 28th Feb 22
3.World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War! - 25th Feb 22
4.INVESTORS SEDUCED by CNBC and the STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS the BIG PICTURE! - 10th Feb 22
5.Will There Be A 2024 US Presidential Election? - 3rd Mar 22
6.Gold and SIlver, Precious Metals Sector Is at a Terrific Buy Spot - 6th Feb 22
7.Why Putin Wants the WHOLE of Ukraine - World War 3 Untended Consequences - 6th Feb 22
8.Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 - 19th Feb 22
9.Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm - 4th Mar 22
10.M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance - 7th Mar 22
Last 7 days
Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order - 24th May 22
Globalists Convene to Plan Central Bank Digital Currencies - 24th May 22
After Recent Highs, What’s Next for the Gold Junior Miners? - 24th May 22
Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - 21st May 22
Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? - 21st May 22
Here is Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold Mining Stocks - 21st May 22
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 20th May 22
US Real Estate Investors – Is There An End In Sight? - 20th May 22
How Technology Affected the Gaming Industry - 20th May 22
How To Set And Achieve Reasonable Goals For Your Company - 20th May 22
How Low Could the Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Fall? - 19th May 22
Bitten by FANG? Clocked by Cryptos? -- 'Air Pockets' Everywhere - 19th May 22
Northern General Hospital Orthopedics Fractures and and Ankle Clinic Consultations Real Patient Experience - 19th May 22
Cathie Wood Goes All in on Teladoc, ARKK INSANE Noob Investing Strategy! - 17th May 22
This is Anything but Positive for US Housing Market - 17th May 22
What Should We Do If There Is No Fed Monetary Policy Pivot? - 17th May 22
All Possible Ways to Earn Free Litecoin - 17th May 22
How low Could the Amazon Stock Price Fall? - 16th May 22
Cathy Wood ARKK INSANITY There is NO Coming Back! - 16th May 22
NASDAQ 100 Stock Market LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGH - 16th May 22
Sanctions, trade wars worsen US inflation - 16th May 22
AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - 14th May 22
Futures Contract – Trading Crude Oil With USO - 14th May 22
How to Get Kaspersky Internet Security for 80% Discount! Do not Pay Renewal Price! - 14th May 22
Sagittarius A* Super Massive Black Hole Monster at Centre of Our Galaxy REVEALED! - 14th May 22
UK Public Debt Smoking Inflation Gun - 13th May 22
What Happens When the Stock Market Dip Keeps Dipping? - 13th May 22
Biden Seeks Inflation Scapegoats; Gold Advocate Wins GOP Primary - 13th May 22
Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - 12th May 22
The War on Gold Ensures the Dollar’s Downfall - 12th May 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

UK CPI Inflation Stuck at 3.1% Against Bank of England's Forecast for 1.6%

Economics / Inflation Sep 14, 2010 - 07:57 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK inflation for August 2010 was unchanged at CPI 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 9 months of mantra from the Governor, Mervyn King that high inflation was ALWAYS just temporary and imminently expected to fall to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI (real inflation) measure dipped marginally from 4.8% to 4.7% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are experiencing especially as taxes rise and state services are cut. The academic economists that populate the mainstream press were again caught off guard as expectations were for CPI to fall to 2.8%, just as they have been caught off guard by high inflation EVERY month for the whole of 2010.


Recently the BoE Governor after 8 months of statements that UK Inflation would imminently fall (CPI forecast to have fallen to 1.6% by August 2010) has stated that he was surprised by the high level of UK inflation and now expects inflation to remain above the 2% target into the end of 2011 before falling to below 2%. In actual fact as my recent analysis illustrated (13 Aug 2010 - The Real Reason for Bank of England's Worthless CPI Inflation Forecasts ) that Mervyn King and the Bank of England are not actually making inflation forecasts but rather pumping out always imminently low inflation propaganda so as to prevent a wage price spiral from taking hold in which respect they have succeeded given the 2.7% gap between RPI inflation and average wage rises. Therefore all of the Banks statements and reports are for the sole purpose of TALKING INFLATION lower, and are thus pure propaganda to manage the psychological expectations of the the British Population so as to enable the BoE to better achieve its targets.

Mervyn King deployed another tactic in his recent letter to Alistair Darling which is to state that he and the BoE were surprised by the strength in inflation, because it is better for the BoE to be surprised by high inflation than to have forecast high inflation coming and then to have failed to have done anything to prevent high inflation from materialising.

At the end of the day inflation is a stealth tax that is being used by the Government and the Bank of England to a. Reduce the budget deficit (eroding purchasing power), and b. funneling tax payers and savers cash onto the balance sheets of the bailed out banks as savers are in receipt of interest net of tax at half the CPI rate and similarly average workers pay rise is near half the CPI and far below the RPI inflation measure of 4.7%.

The Bank of England and the mainstream press always focus on rear view mirror excuses as to why inflation is high such as this months excuse that it is as a consequence of the rise in food prices, however the point is that there ALWAYS is an excuse because if it was not one thing it would be another just as in the coming months different excuses will be put forward to explain why UK inflation remains stubbornly higher than expectations. However looking in the rear view mirror is a worthless exercise when it comes to savers trying to protect their wealth, as for instance the NS&I Index Linked Savings Certificates were withdrawn by the Coalition Government in June ahead of the BoE changing its mantra from highly temporary high inflation. The certificates amounted to a 100% safe inflation hedge that pay an effective tax free interest rate of 6% against the bailed out bankrupt banks that pay less than 2% taxable interest and that everyday continue to cut the rates. Similarly wage earnings have been duped by the Government and the BoE to agree to pittance pay rises of less than 2% or even pay freezes whilst their actual personal inflation measure soars well above the official measures of CPI and RPI.

UK Inflation Forecast 2010

UK CPI Inflation at 3.1% for August 2010 is EXACTLY in line with my trend forecast for 2010 as of December 2009 that projected CPI above 3% inflation for most of 2010 and specifically CPI inflation of 3.1% for August 2010. My analysis since November has been warning of a spike in UK inflation as part of an anticipated inflation mega-trend (18 Nov 2009 - Deflationists Are WRONG, Prepare for the INFLATION Mega-Trend ) that culminated in the forecast of 27th December 2009 (UK CPI Inflation Forecast 2010, Imminent and Sustained Spike Above 3%) and the Inflation Mega-trend Ebook of January 2010 (FREE DOWNLOAD) as illustrated by the below graph.

UK Inflation August 2010

Bank of England's Worthless Inflation Forecasts

According to the Bank of England's forecast for UK inflation as of Feb 2010, CPI inflation by August should have fallen to about 1.6%, instead it is at 3.1% (see graph), with the forecast for inflation to fall to below 1% by the end of 2010 and magically always converge towards 2% in 2 years time which fails to occur 96% of the time.

The Bank of England relies on the gold fish memory of the mainstream press as the BoE seeks to revise inflation forecasts every quarter to push forward 2% to two years forward, which is nearly always preceded by a trend to below 2% one year forward. But as mentioned above the quarterly inflation reports are just propaganda aimed at psychologically managing the populations expectations on the economy and inflation in the direction where the BoE wants it to be as the alternative would be to make the BoE's job harder.

More here - The Real Reason for Bank of England's Worthless CPI Inflation Forecasts

The big question is when will UK interest rates rise in the face of persistently high inflation which my next in depth analysis will seek to answer, ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE Newsletter to receive this in your email in box.

Comments and Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22678.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in