Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Does Anyone Care about the U.S. Jobs Data?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Nov 05, 2010 - 03:52 AM GMT

By: Trader_Mark

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI've already figured out tomorrow's analysis on the monthly jobs data

If it's worst than expected, we have QE2
If it's better than expected, we have QE2


(again I am counting on better than expected because ADP report said 43,000 and birth death model says small business is booming in America so we could clear 100K easily - but it is all moot since it doesn't really matter anymore. Data is old fashioned)

Hence no need to wake up before 9:29 AM to analyze the news. This morning weekly claims jumped some 20,000+, back over 450K but that was just a bothersome footnote.

Turning to the S&P 500 the Relative Strength index has burst into major overbought for the first time during this melt up from the August lows. Using the 'rubber band theory', in which the market generally stalls when the index is 2.5%ish away from the 13 day moving average [Oct 13, 2010: Pulling the Rubber Band] we are also right at the full extension level.... 2.5% above the 13 day. (the range has been 2 to 3%) Hence if we gap up tomorrow it might be an excellent time to put some short position on (that can only last for a few hours due to Monday morning gap up)


NASDAQ has already been here (again only one >-1% loss on that one in approaching 2.5 months)

Pulling out farther, April highs in the S&P 500 are 1219.80 (April 26th). We always seem to have trouble breaking key resistance levels during market hours, so that's why we have premarket. Tomorrow's job report looks like a great way to ramp up futures in light trading to get over that level if we can't do it in this last hour. Then what? (NASDAQ already cleared yearly highs today)

3 year chart

Best I can tell something in the S&P 1250-1300 area aka 2 more gap ups aka next week. Gap up tomorrow on whatever the news is on employment. Then gap up Monday because it's a Monday. Then we can start gapping on POMO days... 1300 easy. Then 1500 in the next 6 weeks. All time highs by Valentine's Day 2011. POMO/QE2. All day, every (other) day.

I am contemplating taking some profits today, and then buying back on a move over S&P 1220, but that move should come in 16 hours right? Hmmmm

By Trader Mark

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com

Mark is a self taught private investor who operates the website Fund My Mutual Fund (http://www.fundmymutualfund.com); a daily mix of market, economic, and stock specific commentary.

See our story as told in Barron's Magazine [A New Kind of Fund Manager] (July 28, 2008)

© 2010 Copyright Fund My Mutual Fund - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in