Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The NEXT BIG EMPIRE WILL BE..... CANZUK - 25th June 22
Who (or What) Is Really in Charge of Bitcoin's Price Swings? - 25th June 22
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Trend Breaks Downward – Rejecting The $120 Level - 25th June 22
Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally - 23rd June 22
The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks - 23rd June 22
No Dodging the Stock Market Bullet - 23rd June 22
How To Set Up A Business To Better Manage In The Free Market - 23rd June 22
Why Are Precious Metals Considered A Good Investment? Find Out Here - 23rd June 22
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend - 22nd June 22
Sportsbook Betting Reviews: How to Choose a Sportsbook- 22nd June 22
Looking to buy Cannabis Stocks? - 22nd June 22
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast - 21st June 22
The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet - 21st June 22
US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing - 21st June 22
How to Invest in EU - New Opportunities Uncovered - 21st June 22
How To Protect Your Assets During Inflation - 21st June 22
AI Tech Stocks Current State, Is AMAZON a Dying Tech Giant? - 20th June 22
Gold/Gold miners fundamental checkup - 20th June 22
Personal Finance Tips: How To Get Out Of A Tough Financial Situation - 20th June 22
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth - 19th June 22
Will Global Markets Be Pushed Deeper Into Crisis Event By The US Fed? - 19th June 22
Useful Things You Need To Know About Tweezer Top Candlestick Pattern - 19th June 22
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend - 17th June 22
Why I’m buying the “new” value stocks… - 17th June 22
Optimize Benefits from R&D in Software Product Development with an R&D Tax Credit Software - 17th June 22
Want To Save On Your Business Energy? Here Are Some Helpful Tips - 17th June 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver Bottoms Amid Subtle but Bullish Factors

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Jul 06, 2011 - 02:43 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSuccessful market timing is based on careful use of technical analysis and sentiment analysis. Technical analysis measures supply and demand and sentiment analysis takes that a step further by looking at investor attitudes their positions and money flows. This information helps us assess probabilities. Nothing is certain but we want to see strong evidence before forecasting a turn in the market. In regards to Silver, we see strong evidence that a bottom is in place and the market will move higher in both the short and intermediate term.


Below is a chart from timingcharts.com which shows Silver, the commercial short position in Silver and open interest. After Tuesday it appears the market has put in a bottom (based on daily closing prices) at $33. More importantly, the commercial short position is at its lowest level since April 2009. Open interest is 29% off its high and at more than a one-year low. This tells us that the market is presently devoid of speculation.

Meanwhile, as of the end of last week, public opinion (from Sentimentrader.com) in Silver was only 32% bulls. That is a three-year low.

It has been said the stocks should lead the commodity at key turning points. Several months back we were harping on the relative weakness in silver stocks. Now that has completely reversed. The silver stocks have been leading the metal for the past two weeks. In fact, our junior index closed at its highest level since June 1. Silver would have to close above $38 to reach its highest close since June 1.

As Silver hit $50/oz, we wrote a piece titled Downside Targets for Silver. We concluded with: “…wouldn’t you rather increase your positions in the $30s rather than at $45 or $50?” Well, now is your chance. Back then, public opinion was over 90% bulls and Silver was in a parabolic state. Today, we see that Silver has advanced to $35 after failing to close below $33 over the past two months. Furthermore, sentiment analysis is as supportive for Silver as any time in the past few years. Finally, the stocks, which tend to lead at key turning points have closed at a five-week high.

We don’t make predictions, we only assess probabilities based on our evidence. The evidence is compelling that the silver complex has put in a bottom. We believed so two weeks ago and that is why we increased positions in our premium service. If you are looking for more analysis and professional guidance, then we invite you to learn about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Trendsman@Trendsman.com

Subscription Service

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in