Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 - 11th Dec 19
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? - 11th Dec 19
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits - 11th Dec 19
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth - 11th Dec 19
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK General Election Forecast 2019

China Economic Growth Far From Hard Landing

Economics / China Economy Jan 17, 2012 - 11:50 AM GMT

By: Bloomberg

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, spoke to Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle about the Chinese economy and crisis in Europe.

O'Neill said that China's continued growth is "the most important thing in the world." On potential Greek default, he said that "China creates the equivalent of another new Greek economy every four months" and "Greece itself is not that important."


O'Neill on China's economy growing 8.9% in Q4 and whether a hard landing is off the table:

"It's a bit stronger than I thought as well, actually. It is a bit of a blow for the hard landing guys, given inflation has come down so much as well. And policy makers are moving away from restraints and flirting with some sort of stimulus. If I was a hard landing guy, I would not be feeling very excited this morning."

"Let me put it in the context of a bigger picture. I am assuming this decade China grows by 7.5%. Translated into dollars, if they do that 7.5%, China will contribute in dollar terms more than the U.S. and Europe put together this decade. And it's higher in that. So it's the most important thing in the world, is what I'm trying to say."

On lingering concerns investors have about China such as the property bubble:

"All of the concerns that many people have expressed are pretty important issues to consider. There are lots of challenges, as there frequently are with China, but the thing that generally impresses me is that Chinese policymakers themselves do not shy away from acknowledging that many of these things are issues, and they try to deal with them. The big one is the property issue. Something that many people in the West, particularly in the U.S. misunderstand about this--it is not like the U.K. or U.S. bubble bursting. Chinese property prices have turned because the Chinese authorities have deliberately stop them from going up. That should have been what the Fed should have done in 2005 and 2006 and maybe before that, but it is tough in a democracy. That is why you get the wild housing bubbles in many Western economies...In China's case, they are doing it deliberately to stop a bubble. I think a fundamental point is people got the approach wrong about that topic."

On how much control Chinese policymakers can expect to maintain as the economy grows:

"With the growth of technology, as we of seen throughout the Middle East last year, it is such a challenge for anyone to control anything with this media. So that is definitely amongst the bigger picture issues one has to be really thoughtful about. I would imagine that some democracy a la Chinese style will emerge. It's not going to be one that we embrace and bless. Importantly, from everything I have understood from going there for 20 years, the Chinese do not crave the exact form of democracy that we have and think they should have. They want more freedom and really want more wealth. If the Chinese authorities continue to provide that and it spreads, then I think generally speaking, the Chinese people will be happy. A key part of what is going on right now, they are deliberately raising wages significantly, which is much ignored in the discussion of the exchange rate."

On concerns that Greece may default:

"China creates the equivalent of another new Greek economy every four months. Greece itself is not that important. What is important about the European mess is Italy. How Greece deals with this restructuring or default, which seems quite possible, and the contagion of that through the rest of Europe, it is extremely important. Who knows with this European stuff, it is a different issue every day. It is very interesting to see the mood of the markets post this downgrade at the weekend. Three months ago the European markets would have traded poorly yesterday and today. But they've short of shrugged it off. Whether that is because people perceive the ECB will do more and more or whether there is some signs of stabilizing of the economy."

On the euro and crisis in Europe:

"Ultimately I think the euro is more likely to go below 1.20 than above 1.40. But here, I think it's not worth the energy most people spend on it. I think the yen is more interesting, the Swiss franc, the stock market, and some bond markets....Europe hasn't generated domestic growth that has driven the world for the 30 years of my career - with the odd exception of Spain for a couple of years. A lot of the earnings depend on the rest of the world. So many European equities can perform really well. The German stock market, I think of it as a developed BRIC. German companies are getting enormous growth out of what's going on in China. So it's not all just about sovereign debt for European equities."

bloomberg.com

Copyright © 2012 Bloomberg - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

dnytra mornayfat
18 Jan 12, 11:03
CHINA ECONMIC GROWTH FAR FROM..

HOW MANY GREECES DOES IT TAKE TO SWITCH OFF A CHINESE LIGHTBULB?


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules