Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market and the Dollar Sustain the Bullish Environment for Gold and Silver

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Jan 27, 2012 - 12:15 PM GMT

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week marked the Year of the Dragon in the Chinese calendar, and according to Chinese mythology, Dragon years bring powerful changes and optimism representing imperial power, prosperity and good luck. This year is supposed to be even more auspicious since it's a Water Dragon year, something that occurs once every 60 years. We admit that we don't yet use the Chinese Horoscope as a technical indicator, and who knows, perhaps we should. One thing is certain—the Year of the Dragon began with an auspicious move for precious metals. 


The dragon that breathed fire into precious metals prices was the Federal Reserve which announced this week that it is planning to keep interest rates at rock bottom for some years and hinted at further economic stimulus measures. Gold prices hit 6-1/2 week highs on Thursday as stock markets, commodities and the euro all rallied. This followed Wednesday's biggest one-day rise in three months after the Fed said it might consider further monetary easing through bond purchases (creating fiat currency out of thin air) and pushed back the likely timing of an eventual interest rate hike to late 2014.

Since many view a U.S. rate hike as a kiss of death to the gold bull market (we disagree), the news that it won't happen for at least three more years prompted those on the sidelines to join the ride. Gold closed above its 100-day moving average, a technical factor that further boosted confidence.

The Fed said in a statement that the economy had expanded “moderately” in recent weeks, but that unemployment remained at a high level, the housing sector remained in a deep depression, and the possibility of a new financial crisis in Europe continued to threaten the domestic economy.

Usually after the Asian gold buying binge for the Lunar New Year gold demand tends to drop along with winter temperatures. We have reasons to believe that will not be the case in the short term. Generally, central bank demand is not subject to seasonality (although one could argue about the business and election cycles impact). Accumulation by countries has removed several hundred tons of gold from the market in each of the past two years and there is no reason to think that this year will be different. Central banks use periods of price weakness to step up their buying which reduces downside risk for all of us while setting the stage for sizable snap-backs. Central banks around the world added 157 tons to their holdings in the six months through November, recent World Gold Council data show.

The gold accumulated by Chinese for the Year of the Dragon is not likely to go back into the world market since most Chinese savers and investors buy gold as long-term, quasi-permanent holdings. That coupled with buying by central banks whose holding periods can be measured by decades, means that there is less supply and any rise in demand for jewelry is likely to have a greater effect on the metal's price than might have been the case several years ago.

To see if the Year of the Dragon will be as auspicious as millions of Chinese believe it will be, let's turn to the technical part with the analysis of the USD Index. We will start with the very long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

Our first chart today is the very long-term USD Index chart. There has been virtually no change within the past week, but we can clearly see that the recent breakout above the long-term resistance line is being verified or invalidated at this time. The latter is more likely (70% probability or so) since the recent breakout was not confirmed. A reversal to the downside is more probable and likely underway already.

In the short-term Euro Index chart, we see a confirmation of the recent breakout. Recently, we have discussed the lack of a confirmation and a possible breakout in the Euro Index. Several days of closing prices above the support line without any significant moves to the downside not only confirm the breakout, but they also point to strength in the Euro Index at this time – actually that’s more likely weakness in the dollar that we’re seeing here, as currency exchange rates are ultimately relative valuations of currencies against each other and the recent statement from the Fed did not help to boost confidence in the greenback.

In the long-term S&P 500 Index chart, the self-similar pattern which we’ve been discussing for a few months with our subscribers has continued to play out well. If this goes on, the next local top will probably be close to the level of the 2011 high. The recent trading pattern has been consistent with the period leading up to the local top in 2010-11. In October-November 2010, declining prices were seen for a few weeks but were quickly followed by a continuation of the rally. We may have a similar situation here.

RSI levels should be looked at as well and are also indicating that a rally is likely ahead. It appears that it could last for two to four weeks as the RSI level will then likely be close to 70. This has coincided with local tops in the past.

A brief explanation of how the Correlation Matrix works is to be found in our last essay on the US dollar’s influence on gold. Significant changes have been seen here this week. The short-term correlation between the USD Index and the precious metals is rather weak and can be attributed to the strong European demand for gold. The yellow metal's price has rallied in all currencies and the correlation between the dollar and gold's price has therefore weakened.

A declining USD Index is medium-term bullish for gold and the precious metals, and the coefficient in the 90-day, medium-term column indicates this. The precious metals and the general stock market both have bullish outlooks at this time and several of their coefficients reflect this although the relationship cannot be described as strong. It seems best at this time to look directly at the precious metals themselves in order to analyze their likely short-term and long-term trends as we do in our full analysis.

Summing up, the breakout in euro above the short-term declining resistance line has been confirmed, which is bullish for euro and bearish for dollar. The situation for the general stock market is a bit unclear for the next few days, but the outlook remains bullish for the weeks and months ahead. Based on correlations, these factors do not disrupt our bullish view on the precious metals sector.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
Sunshine Profits

    Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

    Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders.

    Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

    All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

    By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

H. D. Ziegler
30 Jan 12, 11:03
tanguero

Dear Przemyslaw,

the Spx has made its full wave 2 in the next few days. We habe seen a down and upleg in within about 39 weeks. A great fibonacci time window the summary of 34 and 5 weeks. The next downleg is just to come. The pattern is similar to the first and second wave in the beginning of the c wave in 1930 (April).

The Euro has no change in its direction. we have merly an another correction in its downleg to nowhere. In this ongoing market decline we will see an very strong us-dollar and a devasting Euro. All what will be comming is a strong deflation and no inflation.

All teh bestt to you

H. D. Ziegler


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in