Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
USDT Ponzi Scheme FINAL WARNING To EXIT Before Tether Collapses Crypto Exchange Markets - 22nd Jun 21
Stock Market Correction Starting - 22nd Jun 21
This Green SuperFuel Could Change Everything For the $14 Trillion Shipping Industry - 22nd Jun 21
Virgin Media Fibre Broadband Installation - What to Expect, Quality of Wiring, Service etc. - 21st Jun 21
Feel the Inflationary Heartbeat - 21st Jun 21
The Green Superfuel That Could Disrupt Global Energy Markers - 21st Jun 21
How Binance SCAMs Crypto Traders with UP DOWN Coins, Futures, Options and Leverage - Don't Get Bogdanoffed! - 20th Jun 21
Smart Money Accumulating Physical Silver Ahead Of New Basel III Regulations And Price Explosion To $44 - 20th Jun 21
Rambling Fed Triggers Gold/Silver Correction: Are Investors Being Duped? - 20th Jun 21
Gold: The Fed Wreaked Havoc on the Precious Metals - 20th Jun 21
Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021 - 19th Jun 21
Here’s Why Historic US Housing Market Boom Can Continue - 19th Jun 21
Cryptos: What the "Bizarre" World of Non-Fungible Tokens May Be Signaling - 19th Jun 21
Hyperinflationary Expectations: Reflections on Cryptocurrency and the Markets - 19th Jun 21
Gold Prices Investors beat Central Banks and Jewelry, as having the most Impact - 18th Jun 21
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet - 18th Jun 21
Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue? - 18th Jun 21
STABLE COINS PONZI Crypto SCAM WARNING! Iron Titan CRASH to ZERO! Exit USDT While You Can! - 18th Jun 21
FOMC Surprise Takeaways - 18th Jun 21
Youtube Upload Stuck at 0% QUICK FIXES Solutions Tutorial - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction - 17th Jun 21
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point - 17th Jun 21
Letting Yourself Relax with Activities That You Might Not Have Considered - 17th Jun 21
RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! - 16th Jun 21
The Federal Reserve and Inflation - 16th Jun 21
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? - 16th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools - 16th Jun 21
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand - 16th Jun 21
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos - 16th Jun 21
Transitory Inflation Debate - 15th Jun 21
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry - 15th Jun 21
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus - 15th Jun 21
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! - 15th Jun 21
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! - 14th Jun 21
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits - 14th Jun 21
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility - 14th Jun 21
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda - 14th Jun 21
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not - 14th Jun 21
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? - 14th Jun 21
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? - 14th Jun 21
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Can Gold's Luster Be Restored This Summer?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Jul 19, 2012 - 02:57 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe summer has been a dizzying one for commodities. The last four weeks have witnessed the price of corn soaring toward an all-time high due to withering heat in the Corn Belt states. At the same time, this weather-driven bull market in the grain market, as well as the recent oil price rally, has left investors wondering if this summer might finally be gold's time to shine.


In the same period that the CRB Commodity Index has rallied off a 52-week low, the price of gold hasn't made much headway at all. Gold remains stuck in neutral as both professional and retail traders have shown little inclination to bid up prices. The high frequency speculative crowd had its wings clipped last summer when CME Group initiated a series of margin requirement increases. Since then the momentum crowd has been conspicuously absent from the gold arena.

Small retail investors have also been missing in recent months. Gold purchases have fallen to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis according to figures released by the world's major mints. According to the U.S. Mint, second quarter sales of American Eagle gold coins fell more than 50 percent from the year-ago period to 127,500 ounces. This was the worst three months since the second quarter of 2008, just prior to the worst part of the global credit crisis.

Gold coin purchases are viewed as a fear gauge, and the decline in buying interest this year can partly be attributed to the run-up in equity prices since last October. It's mostly a spillover consequence to the lack of a speculative interest in gold since last summer's margin hikes. Indeed, the loss of the highly leveraged trading element in gold has taken a mighty toll on investor psychology which cannot be underestimated.

Shedding some light on the situation, bullion coin dealer Roy Friedman was quoted by Reuters as stating: "Many investors who have been in the market are taking a break right now, looking for other investment opportunities, waiting for a lower level to get back in, or waiting for some type of economic or political market event."

Friedman's assessment of the current investor psychology in the gold market covers the three main explanations behind gold's lagging performance. His first reason, namely that investors are looking for other opportunities, has already been addressed here. This only explains gold's relative weakness in part, however, since gold was able to rally for many years along with stocks and other commodities without giving ground to its competition. Only since last summer has gold's performance faltered relative to stocks.

Now what about Friedman's second explanation, viz. that investors are waiting for a lower level before buying back in? Of the three explanations he provides, this one makes the least amount of sense. It is an established principle of investor behavior that most retail investors - and this includes most hedge fund traders - are only drawn to a market already in the process of moving higher. The savvy investors who buy at bottoms are in the extreme minority. Most participants require rising prices to attract their interest.

Indeed, gold is already technically "oversold" on a longer-term basis as we've discussed in recent commentaries. The 10-month price oscillator for gold has registered its most sold out reading for gold in 10 years (see chart below). While this is an important consideration for serious longer-term investors, it hasn't done anything to attract the "hot money" crowd.

Gold Oscillator

It's evident that of the three factors listed by Friedman, the last one - that investors are "waiting for some type of economic or political market event" - is closest to the truth of the matter. Whether that market event is catalyzed by yet another crisis in Europe or the announcement of a major monetary stimulus program by the U.S. or European central bank is immaterial. The market (and by market I mean the typical retail investor and momentum trader) is waiting for gold to respond to an extra-market headline event. And it's doubtful that gold will be shaken out of its torpor until this event occurs.

There are two major components of the gold price. The first one is monetary, the second is emotional. Both have served as powerful catalysts to a gold rally in the recent past. The monetary component is obvious to most observers in that a sizable increase in monetary liquidity tends to increase the gold price. The emotional component is mainly driven by fear - whether fear of a dollar collapse or some other market-related or political fear. Right now the fear element is muted since investors are too busy chasing high-yielding stocks to worry about impending economic collapse. The dollar has actually strengthened in the past year (see chart below), which gives investors even less reason to pile into gold. Until investors are given a serious reason for concern, they are likely to continue ignoring gold.

US Dollar Index

Gold's best opportunity for a turnaround might not occur until later this year after the vaunted 4-year "presidential cycle" peaks. You'll recall the last time gold launched a new bull market from a major decline was after the previous 4-year cycle peak in late 2008. After this year's cycle peak in October, and especially after the U.S. presidential election, the economic "hat tricks" that have kept the U.S. economy buoyant this year will likely come to an end.

With the election behind, there will be no further need for artificial stimulants to keep things looking good on the surface. The period following the 4-year cycle peak and the entry of the final "hard down" phase of the Kress long-term yearly cycles in 2013-2014 should represent the ideal time for gold to regain its luster.

2014: America's Date With Destiny

Take a journey into the future with me as we discover what the future may unfold in the fateful period leading up to - and following - the 120-year cycle bottom in late 2014.

Picking up where I left off in my previous work, The Stock Market Cycles, I expand on the Kress cycle narrative and explain how the 120-year Mega cycle influences the market, the economy and other aspects of American life and culture. My latest book, 2014: America's Date With Destiny, examines the most vital issues facing America and the global economy in the 2-3 years ahead.

The new book explains that the credit crisis of 2008 was merely the prelude in an intensifying global credit storm. If the basis for my prediction continue true to form - namely the long-term Kress cycles - the worst part of the crisis lies ahead in the years 2013-2014. The book is now available for sale at: http://www.clifdroke.com/books/destiny.html

Order today to receive your autographed copy and a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Gold & Silver Stock Report newsletter. Published twice each week, the newsletter uses the method described in this book for making profitable trades among the actively traded gold mining shares.

By Clif Droke
www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in