The Beating Coming for Austrailian Banking Stocks, Time to Short

By: readtheticker

The banks that escaped balance sheet damage from the 2008 financial crisis are those down under in Australia.

The Aussie banks and economy was saved by the 18% of GDP stimulus China started on the eve of the crisis. This allowed Aussie exports to flow to China without a any major hick up, this also allowed the Aussie property market to avoid any serious down swing.

That was 2008, roll on to 2013. China has not stimulated their economy along with the western central banks since 2010 and the Chinese economy has slowed, some say only a little, however more suspect a larger down swing is to be expected. The Aussie mining boom is over, even Kevin Rudd knows this as he called the early election as the effects of the mining down swing are starting to hit main street. This will mean pressure on the teflon Aussie property market and retail banks. Below WBC and ANZ look very weak and ideal candidates to be shorted.

The table below shows that as at Jan 2013 many Aussie banks are listed as the top 20 banks of market cap in the world. Better than many US banks, German banks, UK Banks and the rest. The Australian economy is only $1.4 trillion, which proves that massive overvaluation of the banking (and residential property investment) the Aussie banks hold. Therefore more chance of a down swing than an up swing.

This goes for Chinese banks, it you can believe their balance sheets with a nation full of empty cities and 100% own apartments with no one in them!

Yeah right cobber !

Investing Quote...

.."The market is like a slowly revolving wheel: Whether the wheel will continue to revolve in the same direction, stand still or reverse depends upon the forces which come in contact with it hub and tread"... Richard D Wyckoff

.."Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception".. George Soros

Readtheticker

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