Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Stock Market Investors’ Limitless Risk Appetite - 27th Jan 21
3 Dividend Paying Stocks to Ride the New Housing Boom - 27th Jan 21
Biden Seeks Huge Spending, Globally Coordinated Tax Hikes - 27th Jan 21
Will Inflation Make Gold Shine in 2021? - 27th Jan 21
Amazon AI Stocks Investing Analysis 2021 - 27th Jan 21
Why You Shouldn’t Get Excited About Gold Price Mini-Rally - 26th Jan 21
The Truth About Personal Savings Everybody Should Know and Think About - 26th Jan 21
4 Economic Challenges for 2021 - 26th Jan 21
Scan Computers 2021 "Awaiting Picking" - 5950x RTX 3080 Custom PC Build Stock Status - 26th Jan 21
The End of the World History Stock Market Chart : Big Pattern = Big Move - 26th Jan 21
Stock Market Recent Sector Triggers Suggest Stocks May Enter Rally Phase - 26th Jan 21
3 Top-Performing Tech Stocks for 2021 - 26th Jan 21
5 Tips to Manage Your Debt - 26th Jan 21
Stock Market Intermediate Trend Intact - 25th Jan 21
Precious Metals Could Decline Before their Next Attempt to Rally - 25th Jan 21
Great Ways of Choosing Good CMMS Software for a Business - 25th Jan 21
The Dark Forces behind American Insurrectionists - 25th Jan 21
Economic Stimulus Doesn’t Always Stimulate – Pushing On A String - 25th Jan 21
Can Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Clean a Weed Infested Driveway? Extreme Power Test - 25th Jan 21
Lockdown Sea Shanty Craze - "Drunken Sailor" on the Pirate Falls Crazy Boat Ride - 25th Jan 21
Intel Empire Fights Back with Rocket and Alder Lake! - 24th Jan 21
4 Reasons for Coronavirus 2021 Hope - 24th Jan 21
Apple M1 Chip Another Nail in Intel's Coffin - Top AI Tech Stocks 2021 - 24th Jan 21
Stock Market: Why You Should Prepare for a Jump in Volatility - 24th Jan 21
What’s next for Bitcoin Price – $56k or $16k? - 24th Jan 21
How Does Credit Repair Work? - 24th Jan 21
Silver Price 2021 Roadmap - 22nd Jan 21
Why Biden Wants to Win the Fight for $15 Federal Minimum Wage - 22nd Jan 21
Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up - 22nd Jan 21
US Dollar Decline creates New Sector Opportunities to Trade - 22nd Jan 21
Sandisk Extreme Micro SDXC Memory Card Read Write Speed Test Actual vs Sales Pitch - 22nd Jan 21
NHS Recommends Oximeter Oxygen Sensor Monitors for Everyone 10 Months Late! - 22nd Jan 21
DoorDash Has All the Makings of the “Next Amazon” - 22nd Jan 21
How to Survive a Silver-Gold Sucker Punch - 22nd Jan 21
2021: The Year of the Gripping Hand - 22nd Jan 21
Technology Minerals appoints ex-BP Petrochemicals CEO as Advisor - 22nd Jan 21
Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data - 21st Jan 21
Protecting the Vulnerable 2021 - 21st Jan 21
How To Play The Next Stage Of The Marijuana Boom - 21st Jan 21
UK Schools Lockdown 2021 Covid Education Crisis - Home Learning Routine - 21st Jan 21
General Artificial Intelligence Was BORN in 2020! GPT-3, Deep Mind - 20th Jan 21
Bitcoin Price Crash: FCA Warning Was a Slap in the Face. But Not the Cause - 20th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic 2021 - We’re Going to Need More Than a Vaccine - 20th Jan 21
The Biggest Biotech Story Of 2021? - 20th Jan 21
Biden Bailout, Democrat Takeover to Drive Americans into Gold - 20th Jan 21
Pandemic 2020 Is Gone! Will 2021 Be Better for Gold? - 20th Jan 21
Trump and Coronavirus Pandemic Final US Catastrophe 2021 - 19th Jan 21
How To Find Market Momentum Trades for Explosive Gains - 19th Jan 21
Cryptos: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity - 19th Jan 21
Who Will NEXT Be Removed from the Internet? - 19th Jan 21
This Small Company Could Revolutionize The Trillion-Dollar Drug Sector - 19th Jan 21
Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case - 18th Jan 21
More Stock Market Speculative Signs, Energy Rebound, Commodities Breakout - 18th Jan 21
Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? - 18th Jan 21
Some Basic Facts About Forex Trading - 18th Jan 21
Custom Build PC 2021 - Ryzen 5950x, RTX 3080, 64gb DDR4 Specs - Scan Computers 3SX Order Day 11 - 17th Jan 21
UK Car MOT Covid-19 Lockdown Extension 2021 - 17th Jan 21
Why Nvidia Is My “Slam Dunk” Stock Investment for the Decade - 16th Jan 21
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World - 16th Jan 21
Sheffield Turns Coronavirus Tide, Covid-19 Infections Half Rest of England, implies Fast Pandemic Recovery - 16th Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Why the Stock Market is Not a Bubble

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Nov 24, 2013 - 04:18 AM GMT

By: Investment_U

Stock-Markets

Alexander Green writes: In the past week, there have been major stories in both The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal – as well as a cover story in Barron’s – asking the same pointed question: Is this stock market a bubble?

And my column in Investment U last week raised a warning flag, too, about a bull market that’s starting to show its age. So it’s understandable that people are getting nervous.



But at the risk of spoiling the suspense: No, this is not a stock market bubble.

The current bull market began on March 9, 2009, and is currently up 167%. That is more than the housing bubble, when home prices more than doubled from 2002 to 2007, but not nearly as big as the Internet stock bubble between 1990 and 2000, when the technology-laden Nasdaq rose 417%.

Bears point to the frothy Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) IPO – the social-media company’s shares surged 73% in a matter of days – and the 300% move in Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) this year. But a couple of bubbly stocks don’t represent an entire market.

Every bull market is followed by a bear market (and vice versa). And at nearly five years, the current bull market is older than average.

The Signs Aren’t There

But the current stock market doesn’t contain the two factors present in every genuine financial bubble: sky-high valuations and wild-eyed optimism.

Sure, the Dow has recently hit several consecutive all-time highs. But 16,000 is only a number, not a valuation based on sales, earnings, dividends or book value.

For instance, when the Dow hit 11,000 in March 2000, the index sold for more than 30 times earnings. Thirteen and a half years later, while the market is nearly 50% higher, it sells for only 16 times earnings, very close to the long-term average. And most foreign markets – especially European ones – trade at even lower valuations.

So while stocks are near record highs, valuations are nowhere near them.

The other major indicator of a bubble is sentiment. For true believers at the time, Internet stocks represented “a New Era” and real estate was a seemingly can’t-lose proposition.

But that kind of silliness is nowhere apparent today.

Yes, mutual fund cash-flow figures show that ordinary investors are moving back into stocks. But that hardly means the bull market is over.

What a lot of pundits don’t seem to understand is that, historically, everyday investors are right most of the time. They are usually in for bull markets and out for bear markets.

Where they get it wrong is at the extremes: being too pessimistic at market bottoms and too enthusiastic at market tops. So we should be looking for signs of euphoria among ordinary investors.

But I don’t see it right now. Most investors are moving into stocks not because they see nothing but blue skies ahead but because they are earning nothing in cash and next to nothing in bonds. So they are sticking their necks out a bit. And there’s nothing wrong with a bit of prudent risk-taking.

So don’t buy the fear stories that are circulating. Yes, the market can sell off at any time for reasons we can’t foresee.

But are we in a bubble right now?

Absolutely not. We have neither the high valuations nor the overly optimistic sentiment to make that case. So while we are certainly well into this nearly 5-year-old bull market, it still has room to run.

Good investing,

Alex

Source: http://www.investmentu.com/2013/November/this-isnt-a-stock-market-bubble.html

http://www.investmentu.com

Copyright © 1999 - 2013 by The Oxford Club, L.L.C All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Investment U, Attn: Member Services , 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore, MD 21201 Email: CustomerService@InvestmentU.com

Disclaimer: Investment U Disclaimer: Nothing published by Investment U should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Investment U should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Investment U Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules