Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
Will Biden’s Neo-Populist Economic Doctrine Support Gold? - 25th Sep 21
Markets Deflationary Winds Howling - 25th Sep 21
Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? - 25th Sep 21
Cryptocurrency policy choices and consequences - 25th Sep 21
The Next Emma Raducanu UK Tennis Star Pleasing the Crowds at Millhouses Park Sheffield - 25th Sep 21
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? - 24th Sep 21
Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example - 24th Sep 21
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment - 24th Sep 21
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs - 23rd Sep 21
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK - 23rd Sep 21
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE - 23rd Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Euro Succumbs to ECB QE Expectations and FOMC

Currencies / Euro Dec 18, 2014 - 10:46 PM GMT

By: Dan_Norcini

Currencies

Now that the dust from today's wild ride, we can take a look-see how the Euro fared. In watching the initial reaction to the actual FOMC statement itself, the Euro began to move well off its session lows. It reflected the confusion that was in the minds of traders (there was certainly a lot of that in my mind when I read the statement) who felt that it struck an extremely dovish theme at initial glance. That threw same water on the fire for those expecting a sooner rather than later shift in policy expectations for the FOMC in regards to raising interest rates.


A half hour later, the Yellen presser began and that was that. Look at that huge down candle.

I have seen a few of these things over my trading career and I can tell you that I was struck by how different the tone was in Yellen's prepared remarks (and her subsequent answers to press questions) from the tone of that FOMC statement. Judging from the action in the Euro at that point, I was not alone in that assessment.

It does seem that the ECB is preparing the markets (at least they are taking it that way) for their own version of Quantitative Easing to kick off early next year - perhaps as early next month.

That is bringing back selling back into the Euro which had recently begun moving higher reflecting disappointment that the ECB did not move on a QE this month.

In looking at the chart, one can see that the Euro has been trading below the 50 day moving average for the last half of this year. With crude oil sending convulsions into the Yen carry trade and Forex markets, the unwinding of that trade briefly kicked the Euro above the 50 day moving average yesterday. It did not close above that average however and today, in one fell swoop, it erased 5 days' worth of gains and then some.

Notice also that the RSI reading has not even managed to make it back to the 60 level on any rallies since July. As a matter of fact, the RSI has not been above 70 all year. Translation - this remains a market that is inherently weak.

Let me leave you on this one with a weekly view of the currency.

You can see that the currency has held the first support level shown on the chart near the 1.2250 region. The market looks like it is undergoing more of a consolidation phase than it is the start of any trending move higher. Note the tall shadows on the candles indicating the presence of active sellers on the rallies up. All of the indicators remain in a bearish mode.

Essentially, we are going to be trading interest rate differentials in the Euro and the Dollar, now that the Fed has weighed in with the Yellen statements in her press conference. With the Eurozone seemingly on track to try pushing rates LOWER and the Fed seemingly on track to move rates HIGHER, it is difficult to make a fundamental case for buying the Euro versus the Dollar.

That means the path of least resistance remains lower until proven otherwise. The -DMI remains well above +DMI on the ADX indicator shown below the price chart noting that the bears are in firm control of this market on the intermediate time frame.

We'll continue to track this currency on its chart and see how it might handle another downside test of last week's low. If that fails it seems more probable than not that the Euro could test 1.2000, a very key level if the July 2012 low were to fail. Remember we were still dealing with the European Sovereign Debt crisis at that time. Some were predicting the demise of the actual currency itself back then. Anytime therefore, that we get down towards levels in the 1.200 zone, we are talking some major levels of chart support. If those were to go for any reason, the Dollar is going to soar.

Dan Norcini

http://traderdan.com

Dan Norcini is a professional off-the-floor commodities trader bringing more than 25 years experience in the markets to provide a trader's insight and commentary on the day's price action. His editorial contributions and supporting technical analysis charts cover a broad range of tradable entities including the precious metals and foreign exchange markets as well as the broader commodity world including the grain and livestock markets. He is a frequent contributor to both Reuters and Dow Jones as a market analyst for the livestock sector and can be on occasion be found as a source in the Wall Street Journal's commodities section. Trader Dan has also been a regular contributor in the past at Jim Sinclair's JS Mineset and King News World as well as may other Precious Metals oriented websites.

Copyright © 2014 Dan Norcini - All Rights Reserved

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The information on this site has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information on this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in