Category: Euro
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, December 22, 2021
Euro: Look at This Head & Shoulders Chart Formation / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
Learn about the "head and shoulders" measuring formula
You are probably familiar with the classic "head and shoulders" chart pattern.
But, in case you need a refresher, here's a brief description of a head and shoulders top:
The high of an initial upward move is the left shoulder. After a decline, another upward move takes prices to a higher high, or the head. A second decline follows the head. A third rally then takes prices to a peak below the high of the head, and becomes the right shoulder. The left and right shoulders are often similar in duration and extent. A trendline connecting the two lows is called the neckline. When prices penetrate the neckline, a change of trend is believed to have occurred.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 20, 2021
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD / Currencies / Euro
By: Submissions
The strength in US long-term yields is beginning to put downward pressure on the Euro as the dollar gains traction. The exchange rate is starting to edge through a critical support level, while the exchange rate is also oversold. Medium-term momentum remains negative, pointing to a lower exchange rate on the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD weekly forex trading chart shows that the currency pair topped out in January and appears to have broken through trend line support. The daily charts show a similar picture but also show that the exchange rate is oversold an might have moved too far too fast.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 23, 2019
The Euro Is Bidding Its Time: A Reversal at Hand? / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Relentlessly, the USD Index keeps pushing higher. The euro has come under pressure earlier today though it looks to have stabilized. How close are we to the euro flashing a buy signal and how strong would that have to be to make us act? Is it time to change sides and make another quick buck or two this way? And what about the rest of our profitable positions?
Friday, April 26, 2019
The Euro Is Down. But Is It Really Out? / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
We’ve seen quite decent currency moves in recent days. And the market ain’t exactly sleepy today, either. Let’s put these moves into the picture. The implications lead us to make serious decisions. Is there a more pleasant sound than ringing a cashier’s bell? Ringing YOUR cashier’s bell, that is. Just see what we’ve exactly decided to do right now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 03, 2019
Euro Dollar Price Bottoming Setup / Currencies / Euro
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Euro Futures chart is highlighting recent support and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems are suggesting that a current support zone may be setting up for a decent upside move to near 1.15. Momentum has stalled to the downside after the Brexit kerfuffle. It is our opinion that this move to near 1.125 will likely hold as support and prompt an upside price move towards the 1.15 price level.
Volatility within the ZE is normal and this type of price rotation appears to continue. An upside bottom/base near 1.125 may prompt a larger upside price swing in the Euro Futures because it relates a “higher low” price formation following Fibonacci Price Theory. This set would indicate that a “lower low” attempt has failed and would suggest that the Euro Futures price would now attempt a new Higher High (above 1.155).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 11, 2019
EURO Crisis Set to Intensify: US Dollar Breakout Higher / Currencies / Euro
By: FXCOT
Major U.S. indexes have crossed or are nearing their 200-day moving averages and the number of stocks setting 52-week highs is on the rise, among other indicators favored by portfolio managers and investment gurus trying to divine the market’s next move. The rally is widely seen as resulting from a more cautious rate-increase outlook from the Federal Reserve and continuing faith in the U.S. economy. But those factors haven’t quelled concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions and a potential slowdown in corporate earnings that would spell trouble for the nearly decade-old bull market.
The SPX after breaking down into the end of 2018 has now regained poise. The rally of the lows has been broad based as shown below.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 04, 2018
5 Major Factors Affecting the Direction of EUR/USD / Currencies / Euro
By: Andrew_Cioffi
The EUR/USD pair is a major trading pair at the markets. According to https://www.Forexobchodnik.sk the volume of trade recorded each day for this pair is the highest of any other pair at the exchange market. In order to get a proper insight into what factors affect the direction of this par, a little background is important for each of the units on the pair. To start with, the Euro is the largest currency in Europe and it is the second largest in the world – only behind the US dollar/
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Euro Vulnerable as Slowing Growth Reveals Underlying Issues / Currencies / Euro
By: Submissions
Deb Shaw writes:
- Economic indicators point to a worsening slowdown in the Eurozone
- As growth slows, cracks are beginning to appear, starting with Italian financial markets
- After engineering a massive trade surplus, Eurozone now reliant on its trading partners
In our last commentary on the euro in late August, we wrote that the common currency was set to weaken further thanks to (1) slowing growth, (2) slowing inflation and (3) an outsized speculator long position in euro futures and options. Following the publication of our last commentary, EUR/USD has weakened from 1.1730 – 1.180 (the top-end of its trading range that we update daily on our website) down to 1.1510 (the current price on October 4).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Can EUR/JPY Recover Further in September 2018? / Currencies / Euro
By: FXOpen
The daily chart of EUR/JPY suggests that the pair formed a decent support recently and corrected higher. However, it is now approaching significant resistance at 130.60, above which there could be more gains.
Key Points
- The Euro found support near the 124.90-125.00 zone and recovered nicely against the Japanese Yen.
- The EUR/JPY pair is now approaching a crucial bearish trend line with resistance at 130.50 on the daily chart.
Friday, August 24, 2018
EUR/USD Facing Hurdles / Currencies / Euro
By: FXOpen
The daily chart of EUR/USD indicates that the pair moved into a bearish zone below 1.1600.
Key Points
- The Euro tumbled heavily this month before buyers appeared near 1.1300 against the US Dollar.
- There is an important bearish trend line formed with resistance at 1.1635 on the daily chart of EUR/USD.
Friday, August 24, 2018
EUR/GBP Remains in Uptrend / Currencies / Euro
By: FXOpen
The daily chart of EUR/GBP remains in an uptrend above the 0.8940 support.
Key Points
- EUR/GBP is following a significant uptrend above the 0.8900 swing low.
- There are two bullish trend lines in place with supports near 0.8940 and 0.8880 on the daily chart.
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
EURUSD: Why the "Next Day or Two" are Critical / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
An Open House insight from our Currency Pro Service editor
Every week, our Currency Pro Service editor, Jim Martens, records a new video focusing on EURUSD, USDJPY and other markets. Learn why "the next day or two" should determine the next move in the euro in this clip from Jim's June 17 video.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 15, 2018
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD / Currencies / Euro
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Euro crashed yesterday on the ECB’s meeting. This is the worst 1 day crash since June 2016 (Brexit).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 31, 2018
What Happens Next When the Euro Falls 6 Weeks in a Row / Currencies / Euro
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Euro has been going down recently.
- The EURUSD is already down 6 weeks in a row.
- If it closes lower this Friday than it did last Friday, the EURUSD will be down 7 weeks on a row.
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Beginning of the end for the EURO Project / Currencies / Euro
By: Enda_Glynn
Fundamental analysts are all scratching their heads these days!
How can USDJPY be declining rapidly,
All the while EURUSD and GBPUSD are accelerating lower also.
So the USD is both weakening and strengthening at the same time!!
This does not compute in fundamental analysis.
However,
It is perfectly acceptable, and even predictable, with Elliott wave analysis!
And the reason is simple;
The USD is correcting lower against the YEN,
While;
The EURO and Cable are both declining against the USD in a trend move.
Sunday, May 27, 2018
EUR USD Forex Analysis / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – 116.61Previous analysis updated – price has continued to trade down but the overall outlook calling for a substantial rally remains unchanged.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 16, 2018
EUR/USD – Something Old, Something New and… Something Blue / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Since the beginning of the month all battles between bulls and bears run in a fairly narrow area, which unfortunately doesn’t create good investment opportunities. In today's alert, we looked at the broader perspective of EUR/USD and the USD Index itself, and we already have our own types where we will likely open next positions. If you do not want to miss the levels that we think about, take a look at our analysis today.
Sunday, December 24, 2017
EURUSD Moved Sideways Between 1.1554 And 1.2092 / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURUSD continued its sideways movement in a trading range between 1.1554 and 1.2092. The sideways move is likely consolidation of the uptrend from 1.0340 (Jan 3 low). As long as 1.1554 support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume and another rise is still possible after the consolidation. Near term resistance is at 1.1961, a breakout of this level could take price to next resistance level at 1.2092. Above here could trigger further bullish movement towards 1.2500.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Euro Bull Market Confirmation / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Savage
A break of this trend line will confirm that the Euro has entered a bull market and the dollar has entered a bear market. Gold is expected to finally be released from its year-long basing pattern
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 26, 2017
EURUSD Weekly Analysis / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURUSD extended its bounce from 1.1554 to as high as 1.1944, breaking above 1.1879 resistance. Further rise to test test 1.2092 resistance would likely be seen in the coming days, a breakout of this level will confirm that the uptrend from 1.0340 (Jan 3 low) has resumed, then next target would be at 1.2500 area.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 23, 2017
Will Germany’s Crisis Affect Euro Dollar? / Currencies / Euro
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Germany suddenly found itself in a political turmoil on Monday after the month-long talk to form a three-coalition party between Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc (CDU/CSU), the pro-business Free Democractic Party (FDP) and environmentalists Greens has failed. The crisis definitely challenges the idea that Germany is the anchor of democratic stability in Europe. FDP walked out of the negotiations on Sunday, saying they could not find a common ground on migration and environment.
Wednesday, November 01, 2017
EURJPY Formed A Double Top Pattern On 4-hour Chart / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURJPY moved below a major bullish trend line from 122.40 to 127.56 on its daily chart, suggesting that the upside movement from 114.85 had completed at 134.49 already. Further decline would likely be seen in the coming days.
Monday, October 16, 2017
EURGBP Failed To Break Above 0.9045 Resistance / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURGBP failed in its attempt to break above 0.9045 resistance and pulled back from 0.9032. The subsequent fall extended to as low as 0.8855, breaking below an important support level at 0.8906 on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that the short term uptrend from 0.8746 is complete.
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
EURJPY Stays Above Ascending Trend Line / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURJPY stays above an ascending trend line on its daily chart, indicating that the price remains in the uptrend from 114.85. As long as the trend line support holds, the upside movement could be expected continue.
Monday, October 09, 2017
EURGBP’s Correction Rebound Extended To 0.8992 / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURGBP extended its upside movement from 0.8746 to as high as 0.8992, breaking above a major resistance level at 0.8899, indicating that correction for the downtrend from 0.9306 is underway. Further rise is still possible in the coming days.
Friday, September 29, 2017
EURGBP Broke Out Of Price Channel And Formed Sideways Movement / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURGBP recently broke out of a price channel on its 4-hour chart and moved sideways in a trading range between 0.8746 and 0.8899, suggesting that consolidation for the bearish movement from 0.9306 is underway.
Friday, September 15, 2017
EURGBP Broke Below Trend Line Support / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURGBP recently broke below the bullish trend line at 0.9050 on its daily chart. The subsequent fall had taken price to as low as 0.8866, indicating that the upside movement from 0.8313 had completed at 0.9306 already.
Thursday, September 14, 2017
EURUSD Is Facing Channel Support / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURUSD stays in a bullish price channel on its daily chart and remains in the uptrend from 1.0569. As long as the price is in the channel, the fall from 1.2092 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend and the bullish movement could be expected to continue after the consolidation.
Thursday, September 07, 2017
EURJPY Might Be Forming Double Top Pattern / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
After touching 131.39 previous high resistance, EURJPY pulled back sharply from 131.70 and broke below a major support trend line on on the 4-hour chart. The pair might be forming a double top pattern with neckline at 127.56, a breakdown below this level could confirm the pattern.
Monday, September 04, 2017
EURGBP Broke Below Channel Support / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
After touching the October 2016 high of 0.9305, EURGBP pulled back from 0.9306 and broke below the bottom support trend line of the price channel on its 4-hour chart, indicating that the upside movement from 0.8891 had completed at 0.9306 already. Deeper decline could be expected over the next several days, and the target would be at the bullish trend line on the daily chart now at around 0.9005.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Has the EURO Topped? / Currencies / Euro
By: SurfCity
At least in the short term anyway? Remember, that based on my USD update from yesterday, I am still looking for a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in the USD. The Dollar has rallied hard off yesterdays low and as you would expect, the EURO is showing signs of topping here.
I have taken a trade in shorting the EURO with the EUO ETF but have not yet made this a portfolio trade as it is risky here but here are some charts on both the EURO ($XEU) and EUO.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 28, 2017
EURGBP Is Facing 0.9305 Resistance / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURGBP formed a double bottom pattern on its daily chart, with neckline at 0.8851 and measured move target at around 0.9400. After breaking above the neckline resistance, the pair extended its bullish movement to as high as 0.9270, facing the resistance at the October 2016 high of 0.9305.
Tuesday, August 22, 2017
EURJPY Bounce Off Channel Support / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURJPY rebounded from 127.56 after touching the bottom support trend line of the price channel on the daily chart, suggesting that the pair remains in the uptrend from 114.85. As long as the price is in the channel, the fall from 131.39 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 21, 2017
EURUSD Remains In Uptrend From 1.0569 / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURUSD stays in a bullish price channel on its daily chart and remains in the uptrend from 1.0569. As long as the price is in the channel, the pullback from 1.1909 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 09, 2017
EURJPY Dropped Sharply to 128.70 / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURJPY dropped sharply to as low as 128.70 after breaking below a major support trend line at 130.35 on its 4-hour chart. Further decline is still possible in a couple of days.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 03, 2017
EURUSD Broke Above Neckline Resistance / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURUSD broke above a major trend line from the August 2015 high of 1.1713 to the May 2016 high of 1.1616 at 1.1445 on the weekly chart, and extended its bullish movement to as high as 1.1908, indicating that a double bottom pattern had been formed.
Thursday, July 13, 2017
EURUSD Is Testing Neckline Resistance At Around 1.1450 / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
There is a descending trend line from the August 2015 high of 1.1713 to the May 2016 high of 1.1616, with resistance at around 1.1450, acting as the neckline of the double bottom pattern on the EURUSD’s weekly chart. If the price breaks and settles above the trend line resistance, it would confirm pattern, then the price could extend to the measured move target at around 1.2700.
Monday, June 26, 2017
EURGBP Is Facing Neckline Resistance / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURGBP’s bullish movement from the April 18 low of 0.8313 extended to as high as 0.8866. After touching the resistance of the January 16 high of 0.8851, the pair pulled back and formed a sideways movement in a trading range between 0.8719 and 0.8866.
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
EURUSD Broke Below Trend Line Support / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
Under pressure by the resistance of the November 2016 high of 1.1299, the EURUSD pair pulled back from 1.1295 and broke below the major bullish support trend line at 1.1160 on its daily chart, indicating that a short term top had been formed. Sideways movement in a trading range between 1.1070 and 1.1295 would likely be seen over the next several days.
Friday, June 02, 2017
EURUSD Might be Forming a Double Bottom Pattern / Currencies / Euro
By: Franco_Shao
EURUSD might be forming a double bottom pattern on its weekly chart. The first bottom is at the March 2015 low of 1.0462, the second bottom is at the January 2017 low of 1.0340, and the neckline is from the August 2015 high of 1.1713 to the May 2016 high of 1.1616, now at around 1.1450. The price has to break through the neckline before confirming this reversal formation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 26, 2017
EURGBP: A Picture of Elliott Wave Precision / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
The euro's recent surge to two-month highs against the pound fit its Elliott wave blueprint beautifully
Let's assume financial markets are driven by news events. Negative news items cause prices to fall, while positive items fuel rallies. Easy enough, right?
Not exactly. See, there are several problems with this premise, most of all this: Investors' interpretation of the news is constantly changing. To use those events as a gauge of future price action is like trying to shoot a straight arrow in the middle of a tornado.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 21, 2017
Euro Remains Bullish Above 1.11 / Currencies / Euro
By: Richard_Cox
The EUR/USD experienced major upside moves last week with prices moving forcefully ahead of the psychological mark at 1.10. The moves are significant because the suggest that we are now seeing an end to the previous downtrend that had been in place since June 2016.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 20, 2017
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! / Currencies / Euro
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: Eurogroup Meetings. USD: FOMC Members Speak.
Monday, May 15, 2017
Euro Tailwinds Negative for the US Dollar, Positive for Precious Metals / Currencies / Euro
By: Donald_W_Dony
The election of Emmanuel Macron as the next president of France has only added to the on-going strength of France's CAC 40 Index and, by extension, the Euro.
The election of Macron and the defeat of the protectionist Marine sends a positive message to the common currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 12, 2017
Macron’s French Election Triumph Removes Eurozone Political Risk / Currencies / Euro
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
By EWFHendra : Emmanuel Macron won the presidential election last Sunday, defeating Marine Le Pen, a far-right nationalist who wanted to take France out of the European Union. Markets had feared that Le Pen’s win could threaten the EU project, but Macron’s win has eliminated uncertainty regarding France’s membership of the Euro and removed the risk of near-term severe political shock to France and wider Europe. The Euro went above $1.10 briefly, but since then has pulled back. The upwards move was not dramatic than the first round of French elections as many traders have anticipated Macron’s victory and thus victory was already well priced in.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
It’s Time to Stop Putting a Patch on the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Rodney_Johnson
Andreas Georgiou can’t catch a break.The Greek statistician moved back to his home country in 2010, at age 50, to help right the financial ship. He left Washington, where he had spent 21 years working for the International Monetary Fund, to take over the agency that reports Greece’s financial health.
Part of the problem with Greece is that no one knows exactly how big their problems are, since the numbers weren’t exactly accurate.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 08, 2017
EURUSD: When Price Pattern Trumps Other "Reasons" / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
Waves of market psychology often warn of trend changes before the news -- see how
This was an eventful week in politics, monetary policy and the markets -- and to many observers, the three seemed to be linked.
On Wednesday (March 1), the U.S. dollar did something it hadn't done in almost two months: It got stronger. Two reasons were behind the move, said analysts: The Fed's imminent rate hike, and, President Trump's widely-covered address to Congress:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 27, 2017
A Global Eurodollar Shortage / Currencies / Euro
By: Gordon_T_Long
The World Bank just released a telling report entitled "Trade Developments in 2016: Policy Uncertainty Weighs on World Trade". Though they deflect the problems in global trade to areas such as excessive regulatory initiatives and policy uncertainty (which is true), what is to be found buried in the appendix are the two un-annotated charts below. I suspect the World Bank didn't compare them directly (they are shown separately) because it would cast a spotlight on an even larger political 'football'.
How does global trade ship ~10% more trade volume but receive ~12% less revenue over a 5 year period? The answer has traditionally been significant improvements in productivity. However, the productivity numbers by country don't even come close to supporting such a premise.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 31, 2017
EURUSD Forex Trading Strategy Simplifies a Choppy Market / Currencies / Euro
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
The forex market accounts for trillions worth of transactions on a daily basis, which makes it one of the most liquid markets to participate in. The EUR/USD currency pair accounts for most of those transactions but that does not make the pair immune to the rigorous volatility experienced amongst the exotic currency pairs.Due to less liquidity, currency markets involving less popular pairs tend to be more volatile than their more popular counterparts. However, as demonstrated in the chart below, the EUR/USD pair, which is one of the most popular currency pairs in the Forex market has been very choppy of late. At least, when you look at it from the perspective of the hourly chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 27, 2017
Going Long The Euro Could Be The Trade Of 2017 / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : For a long time now I've held the theory that you have to be completely insane to be a successful investor. Like, right out of your tree.
Let me put it this way: Just a few weeks ago we were all sure, 100% positive that the US dollar would continue to appreciate against the euro, because the Fed was more hawkish, and the ECB was going to have negative rates and QE forever.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 07, 2017
Sell those Euros. Sell'em / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
How do you know a real FX opportunity from a fake one?
Late last Thursday night (Dec. 29), I got an insistent email from a colleague.
Jim Martens, long-time editor of our forex-focused Currency Pro Service sent me this message with only a subject line:
-------- Original message --------
From: Jim Martens
Date: 12/29/16 9:16 PM (GMT-05:00)
To: Vadim Pokhlebkin
Subject: Sell those euros. Sell'em
Thursday, December 08, 2016
Euro Devaluation Accelerates – Millions Of Europeans Wishing They’d Bought Gold / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Rubino
ECB Chairman Mario Draghi’s announcement of bigger and better QE this morning should have surprised no one. The fact is that the eurozone is coming apart at the seams and the only tool left to delay the inevitable is easier money. As the following chart illustrates, the euro has been declining since 2008, with the descent accelerating lately.
Friday, November 18, 2016
Euro Price Action Post-Election: "We Expected That" / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
Our Currency Strategist Outlines His Long-term View of the Euro
[Editor's note: The text version of this interview is below.]
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
EURO Yearly Cycle Low / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Savage
The Euro daily cycle is now on Day 16. I’m guessing the euro will print a final yearly cycle low sometime this week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Euro “Will Collapse” – Is “House of Cards” Warns Founder of Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: GoldCore
The Euro “will collapse” as it is a”house of cards” warned Otmar Issing, the founder and creator of the euro in an extraordinary interview on Monday.
In the explosive interview with the journal Central Banking, Professor Issing, said “one day, the house of cards will collapse” as the European Central Bank (ECB) is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 26, 2016
EUR-USD pattern still on track / Currencies / Euro
By: Ken_Ticehurst
The Euro has spent the last year consolidating against the US Dollar, however it appears as though this long consolidation was just a breather in a longer term down trend. Our updated daily forecast pattern below, shows how we think this consolidation will end during the next few months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Waiting on the Euro to Bottom / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Savage
I’m just waiting for the euro to confirm a final intermediate cycle bottom. It’s now very late in the timing band at 33 weeks. So the bottom could occur at any time. My best guess is the euro will bottom and the dollar will top on, or the day before, the FOMC meeting next week.
The intermediate trend line has been broken. This needs to happen during cycle lows to get technical traders on the wrong side of the market. We are waiting for the trend line to break in gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 30, 2016
Forex Trading: EUR/JPY Trying to Stabilize After Drop / Currencies / Euro
By: Richard_Cox
Forex markets have been taken by surprise with the amount of volatility that has been seen in recent weeks. There are strong fundamental reasons for why this has occurred, as it has been almost impossible to avoid media coverage of the recent ‘Brexit’ events. But now that we have some finality in these areas, it is time to take a step back and assess what is actually happening to prices so that traders have an indication of what to expect going forward.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 08, 2016
Euro Technical Analysis and the BrExit Vote / Stock-Markets / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
The Euro remains locked in a big consolidation phase and with the Brexit vote coming up I thought I’d take another look. Let’s look at one scenario on the daily chart that I think has some good potential going forward.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 05, 2016
Euro Desperation will achieve Self Destruction - MAP Wave Analysis / Currencies / Euro
By: Marc_Horn
In between migrating sites I have lost some pages and they largely appear to be from currencies!!!
The Euro was what started me off with the development on my analysis and fortunately that was not lost and can be found here from 2012 , as that was what I used initially to explain my methods.
Thursday, April 14, 2016
EUR/USD Is Sending Currency Bears Message / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, official data showed that euro zone industrial production declined by 0.8% in Feb (month-on-month), missing analysts' forecasts. Additionally, industrial production (year to year) rose less-than-expected in Feb, which pushed the euro lower against the greenback. As a result, EUR/USD declined under the Feb high, invalidating earlier breakout. How low could the exchange go in the coming days?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 01, 2016
Forex Trading - EUR/USD Increases – What About USD/CAD? / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, the greenback moved sharply lower against the Canadian dollar despite bullish ADP report and declining crude oil prices as sentiment on the U.S. dollar remained weak after Janet Yellen’s speech. As a result, USD/CAD dropped under important support line. How low could the exchange rate go in the coming days?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 25, 2016
EUR/USD Likely to Fall Back Below 1.10 / Currencies / Euro
By: Richard_Cox
The EUR/USD has fallen under the radar in recent weeks, as overall volatility in the currency space as slowed significantly. There are a few different reasons for why this is happening, as recent central bank statements have clarified what we are likely to start seeing from both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). To some extent, we are seeing dovish alterations in many of the previous expectations that most analysts had for both central banks. So, it would not be entirely surprising to see some accompanying trend changes in the weeks ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 26, 2016
Why the Euro Is a Doomed Currency / Currencies / Euro
By: Casey_Research
By Doug Casey
For a long time, I’ve advocated that the world’s governments should default on their debt. I recognize that this is an outrageous-sounding proposal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 21, 2015
Euro Rally Likely to Reverse / Currencies / Euro
By: Richard_Cox
As we move into the end of this year, we have seen some surprising moves in the currency markets that have likely taken many traders by surprise. Perhaps the best example here is the shorter-term rally in the EUR/USD, which has quickly risen to near important psychological levels at 1.10. This commonly traded pair has spent most of its recent activity roughly 5 big-figures below this area, so the it is difficult to argue against the fact that these moves have been substantial.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 11, 2015
Forex Trading Alert: EUR/USD - North or South? / Currencies / Euro
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 4 rose by 13,000 to 282,000, missing analysts' forecasts. As a result, the USD Index moved slightly lower, but did it change anything in the short-term picture of the euro?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 01, 2015
Why The Super Bearish Gold and Silver COTs Portend a Plunging Euro... / Currencies / Euro
By: Clive_Maund
It was ironic that when Dr Watson complained to his companion Sherlock Homes that he had a stomach ache, Holmes clarified the situation at once by saying "Alimentary, my dear Watson". More generally, the legendary sleuth of Victorian London would make light of his accomplishments after solving cases that baffled the police, by remarking "Elementary, my dear Watson". Doubtless this expression was deeply irritating to his arch-enemy Moriarty.
Today we are going make light of what to other analysts may be abstruse and possibly baffling, by "joining the dots" to demonstrate the linear connection between an extremely bearish silver COT and an imminent crashing euro, so that by the conclusion of this article, you, dear reader, will have a clear understanding of what is set to unfold, and will be able to explain to other confused souls that it really is elementary.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 23, 2015
Bye, Bye Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Dan_Norcini
So how does it fell Mr. Euro to get smacked upside the head by your supposed caretaker?
Mario Draghi must be taking lessons from the Bank of Japan because this is one of the best verbal whoopin’s I have seen put on a currency.
Mario yanked the rug out hard; so hard, that the basement is now evident.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 14, 2015
Euro To Fail Above 1.14 / Currencies / Euro
By: Richard_Cox
Currency markets have had difficulty in showing much consistency over the last few weeks of the summer but now that markets are once again returning to full strength it it more likely that we will start to see a resumption of the broader global trends. The Euro will continue to be one of the most important assets to watch in this class, given the fundamental uncertainty that still surrounds a good portion of the region.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 02, 2015
Euro vs. U.S. Dollar: See Why "Excitement Is Yet to Come" - Video / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International's Chief Currency Strategist discusses the EURUSD 1,200-pip "roundtrip"
Stocks and oil weren't the only markets going berserk last week. Eurodollar, or EURUSD -- the world's biggest and most popular forex market -- first rallied 700+ points (or pips) higher and then crashed about 500 pips back to earth, all in a matter of a few days.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
EURUSD: An Ending Diagonal Triangle in Action / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
See how beautifully recent trading in the euro followed a high-confidence Elliott wave pattern
Remember how during the time of the Greek bailout a couple of weeks ago, the euro didn't seem to "know" which way to go next? There is a reason for that, says The Wall Street Journal -- carry trade:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Now that Greece is Guaranteed in the Euro, the Euro is Down / Currencies / Euro
By: Atlantic_Perspective
One of the mantras repeated to exhaustion over the last few months was “if Greece leaves the Euro, the Euro is over”. Is it? The charts say the opposite. When the prospect of Grexit reached its peak, the Euro didn´t crash. Quite the opposite, it got stronger. Now that Greece seems “secure” in the Euro, the Euro is down. Could the Grexit mantra be wrong?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
After the Rally, What's Next? - Video / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
Get new forecasts for the euro from Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist
Think the recent rally in the euro was the result of "good news" from Greece? Think again.
Watch our Currency Pro Service editor, Jim Martens, explain what's really behind the moves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Euro Bourses and Euro Currency's Inverse Relation Still In Play / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The euro-Dax-bunds relationship continues in full swing, led by a rallying Dax (and rest of Eurozone bourses) resulting from the most notable steps taken by Greece towards reaching a deal with creditors in four months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 22, 2015
Euro Uncertainty Reflected in COT Report / Currencies / Euro
By: Dan_Norcini
First of all, Happy Father's Day to all you Dads out there. There is no greater or fulfilling calling in life than being a dad. Everything else pales in comparison.
Secondly, Dad's must make a living to provide for their family and that forces us back to the reality of dealing with the markets and trying to get a read on what is driving what and WHY.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 19, 2015
The Tragedy of the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The gloomy economic situation of Greece has been the topic of many Gold News Monitors – we wrote recently about it here and here, but also in the February Market Overview dedicated to European turmoil from the beginning of this year. It is high time to analyze more thoroughly the relationship between Greece’s debt crisis and gold. But first we must examine the institutional foundations of the Eurozone and its currency, as they not only did not prevent, but actually encouraged imprudent Greece’s fiscal policy, which led to the current crisis.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
EUR/USD vs. Resistance Zone / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although EUR/USD moved sharply lower yesterday, the exchange rate reversed and erased some of earlier gains as uncertainty over Greek debt negotiations weighed on investors' sentiment. Will we see further deterioration in the coming days?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
EUR/USD: Short positions (stop-loss order at 1.1667)
GBP/USD: Short positions (stop-loss order at 1.5913)
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: Long positions (stop-loss order at 1.1706)
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: Short positions (stop-loss order at 0.8194)
Monday, June 01, 2015
EURUSD Technical Outlook / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
Let's take a bottom up approach to the analysis beginning with the daily chart.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
This New Currency Could Wipe Out the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Investment_U
Sean Brodrick writes: Greece, the cradle of Western civilization, is poised to rock the world again.
For a country with gross domestic product equivalent to the Miami metropolitan area, that’s no small feat. But it could rock the financial world in an old-fashioned way that many historians would recognize - by printing money.
The situation in Greece is much more dire than most people realize. You may have heard that Greece recently made a $494 million payment on $32 billion that it owes the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2015
Euro Sclerosis / Currencies / Euro
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There appears to be little or nothing in the monetarists’ handbook to enable them to assess the risk of a loss of confidence in the purchasing power of a paper currency. Furthermore, since today’s macroeconomists have chosen to deny Say’s Law[1], otherwise known as the laws of the markets, they have little hope of grasping the more subtle aspects of the role of money in price formation. It would appear that this potentially important issue is being ignored at a time when the Eurozone faces growing systemic risks that could ultimately challenge the euro’s validity as money.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Should We Dump the Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The Greek drama continues to unfold with the risk of a “Grexit” becoming increasingly likely. Yet, a large majority of the Greek people want to keep the euro. This would force the Greek government to live within its means, which isn’t a bad thing. With anti- austerity parties gaining strength continent wide, Greece may be the first, and not the last, to leave. Yet, the problem in Europe is not the euro, but excessive government regulations, spending, and taxation.
Friday, May 15, 2015
EUR/USD 1.15 Remains Key Level / Currencies / Euro
By: Richard_Cox
For most of this year, the Euro currency has been one of the weakest assets in any of the financial markets. This is significant for a number of reasons because there have been very few assets (of any type) experiencing more weakness across the same number of denominative measures. Against the British Pound, the Euro has quickly weakened to the 1.40 mark but there has been even more pronounced weakness against the US Dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 11, 2015
Debt Scenarios Still Weighing on Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Richard_Cox
When we hear the words “sovereign debt crisis” it might seem as though we are reading financial news headlines from several years ago. But when we look at the underlying fundamental activity in the Eurozone, it quickly starts to become clear that this is simply not the case. If we look at the region as a whole, there are some significant discrepancies that are negatively impacting some regions more than others. This can have a catastrophic on a regional economic that is trying to use the same monetary system, so it should still be clear at this stage that the region’s debt issues are far from over.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 08, 2015
EURAUD Technical Outlook / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
The EURAUD currency pair hasn’t been covered for a while instead preferring to let it go about its corrective business. Let’s now revisit it and see if we can get a grip on a potential price path going forward using the weekly and monthly charts.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2015
EURUSD and USDJPY Double Tops / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
Recent double tops tell the tale for these two currencies. The EURUSD has a bearish double top in place while the USDJPY has a bullish double top in place. A bit confused? Let's get clarity by viewing the daily charts of each currency.
Thursday, April 09, 2015
EURUSD: Why Recent Ups and Downs Are NOT Random / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
How Elliott wave analysis can bring some certainty into the oh-so-uncertain world of forex trading
How do you know what "your" forex market will do tomorrow?
You don't. We don't. Nobody does. All anyone can do is guess. But some guesses are more "educated" than others.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 12, 2015
U.S. Dollar, Euro May be in a Reversal / Currencies / Euro
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The US dollar hit its Master Cycle high overnight, rising to 100.05 before dropping down to an early morning low of 98.65. The reversal is coming very late at day 254 in the current Master Cycle. This leads me to believe that there may be a strong down draft in USD over the next 3 weeks.
USD/JPY is retreating this morning. It is still at 120.94 after reaching a high of 122.02 on Monday. The Yen carry trade will likely start to unwind beneath USD/JPY 120.00.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
How Low Can The Euro Go? Or Is That The Wrong Question? / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Rubino
The euro is tanking again, as the ECB starts buying bonds for its long-promised "whatever it takes" QE program. Today's exchange rate move is dramatic enough to generate headlines like this, from Forbes: Euro Nears Parity With U.S. Dollar
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Market insight: U.S. Dollar at 11-Year High Against Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
And why now may not be the best time to bet on the greenback
By Elliott Wave International
Editor's note: You'll find a text version of this story below the video.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Euro Damaged, Kiwi Panics / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
A new 12-year low in the euro against the US dollar and another hit to the New Zealand dollar re-emerged in global markets as Greece and the EU put off talks to another day, while stock traders let the shine of Apple's iWatch presentation wane after it was revealed that the battery life of the much awaited accessory lasted no more than 18 hours.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Euro Currency Bulls May Soon Have Their Day in the Sun / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
Our "Pro Service Outlook 2015" FREE video event introduces you to the near- and long-term forecast for the world's most popular FOREX markets -- and so much more
As the euro clings to the guardrail of a 7- (no, wait) 9- (Doh! there it goes again) now 11-year low, debate over the future of the eurozone's currency rages on. And in the mix, the ultimate four-letter FOREX word just reared its ugly head: PARITY.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Good News for Euro Single Currency / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research showed that its index of German economic sentiment rose by 4.6 points to 53.0 this month from January’s reading of 48.4, which is the highest reading since February 2014. Thanks to these positive numbers, EUR/USD bounced off this week’s lows and climbed above 1.1400. Will we see the exchange rate above 1.1500 later this week?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 04, 2015
Euro Time For Recovery / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau showed that factory orders dropped by 3.4% in December, missing expectations for a decline of 2.2%. Thanks to these numbers, EUR/USD moved sharply higher, breaking above important resistance levels. Will we see a comeback above 1.1600 in the coming days?
Wednesday, January 07, 2015
Euro is in Free Fall / Currencies / Euro
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Euro appears to be in free-fall as Greece threatens to exit the Euro (GREXIT). The question is, who has the most leverage and who will be hurt the most if a default on Greek bonds is made?.
There are 20 days left until the Greek general election, which corresponds nicely to a Primary (panic) Cycle coming to a close at the end of January. A Master Cycle low is also due then, possibly Intermediate Wave (3).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
Are Central Banks Dumping Euros? / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The euro began the first full trading week of 2015 by breaking below the $1.20 level for the first time in four years to end up hitting a nine-year low of $1.1864. The latest reasons of the renewed slump are rising probability that the Greek anti-bailout left alliance will win the Jan 25 elections, a combination of apparent tolerance from German Chancellor Merkel over the possibility of a Greek exit and emerging consensus that even if outright QE of euro sovereign bonds were agreed upon by the European Central Bank, the plan would fail to ridding the Eurozone from deflation.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Euro Succumbs to ECB QE Expectations and FOMC / Currencies / Euro
By: Dan_Norcini
Now that the dust from today's wild ride, we can take a look-see how the Euro fared. In watching the initial reaction to the actual FOMC statement itself, the Euro began to move well off its session lows. It reflected the confusion that was in the minds of traders (there was certainly a lot of that in my mind when I read the statement) who felt that it struck an extremely dovish theme at initial glance. That threw same water on the fire for those expecting a sooner rather than later shift in policy expectations for the FOMC in regards to raising interest rates.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
ECB tentatively edges closer to QE in 2015; more EUR weakness likely / Currencies / Euro
By: MahiFX
The characterisation of Europe as “elderly and haggard” by Pope Francis is an accurate one, but on December 4 the European Central Bank could lay the groundwork to try and revitalise the region's sagging economy.
If was down to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the Eurozone would already be on the receiving end of a substantial quantitative easing programme and likely the EUR would be even weaker than it is now – but Draghi's time could yet come, as early as December 4th.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
EUR/USD – Currency Bulls Don’t Give Up / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the Conference Board showed that its index of consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 in November, missing analysts’ expectations for an increase to 95.9. In a response, the U.S. dollar moved lower, which pushed the EUR/USD pair to an important resistance line. Will we see a breakout and further improvement?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2014
EUR/USD - Double Bottom Or New Lows? / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar strengthened against other major currency pairs after the Fed said it would end its monthly bond-buying program but keep rates near zero for "considerable time". As a result, EUR/USD declined below the medium-term resistance zone, which triggered a sharp decline to sligthly above the recent lows. Will they withstand the selling pressure and we'll see a double bottom in the coming days?
Sunday, September 28, 2014
Currency Wars and the Death of the Euro - Audio / Currencies / Euro
By: Videos
Jeff Deist and Patrick Barron discuss what's going on in the EU, how Germany in particular suffers from being yoked to the other Eurozone nations, and what the comeback of the Deutsche Mark might mean for Europe—and for America.
Patrick Barron is a private consultant in the banking industry. He teaches in the Graduate School of Banking at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, and teaches Austrian economics at the University of Iowa,
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2014
EURUSD Time For A Bear Rally / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
Recently I've been a bit out of whack on this pair, the EURUSD. I feel confident in the longer term projections. It's the daily machinations that I'm still trying to get in-synch with. Sometimes you just need to step back and let the market do its thing, not forcing the issue. And then out of the blue, that desired clarity appears. And that just may be happening now.
Tuesday, August 05, 2014
EUR/USD - Time for Rebound? / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, the common currency rebounded sharply after disappointing U.S. employment data, which showed that the U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July, missing expectations for an increase of 233,000. As a result, EUR/USD erased over 20% of recent declines and came back above 1.3400. Will currency bulls manage to push the pair higher?
Thursday, July 24, 2014
EUR-AUD Heads Into The Danger Zone / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
I’ve been watching the EURAUD for quite a while and finally its next big play opportunity looks about to present itself. Let’s take a look at the charts to see what exactly that is. We’ll go with my top down approach beginning with the yearly chart.
Monday, July 21, 2014
EURUSD To Rally Or Not To Rally? / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
The EURUSD has recently come down to test major support. So now it has to decide whether to bust on through that support or rally from here. Let's take a closer look to see what its decision will be.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Where is the Bottom in the Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Richard_Cox
In the last few weeks, the Euro has reversed a good portion of the gains made during the early parts of this year as the monetary policy outlook at the ECB looks to be changing at a rate that is more aggressive than previously expected. Looking at specific forex rates, the EUR/USD hit an initial high just below the 1.40 mark before making a violent turn to the downside that has pushed traders to an alternate viewpoint where the shared Euro currency is looking much more attractive as a sell on rallies rather than as a buy on dips. These trends are being aided by new positives in the US economic, and a good portion of the market is now using the Dollar as a means for exiting long positions in the Euro itself.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2014
EURUSD On The Cusp / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
Let's begin the analysis by looking at the yearly chart.
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
EUR/USD Currency Bears Are Still in Charge / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
The euro declined against the U.S. dollar as positive housing and consumer confidence data supported the greenback. Earlier today, the Commerce Department reported that core durable goods orders (without volatile transportation items) increase 0.1% in April, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase. Despite this disappointing data, U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.8% in the previous month, beating expectations for a 0.5% fall. Additionally, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index rose to 83.0 this month from 81.7 in April, while the Standard & Poor’s/ Case-Shiller house price index rose 12.4% in March from a year earlier, above expectations for a gain of 11.8%. Thanks to these solid numbers, the common currency dropped to its nearest support zone. Will it withstand the selling pressure once again?
Thursday, May 01, 2014
ECB Draws a Line in the Sand for Euro Currency at $1.40 / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Dorsch
Two years ago, the big worry in the global markets was the possibility that Greece would opt to leave the Euro, which in turn, would set off a chain reaction, in which Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain, and Italy might also choose to do the same. The Euro’s credibility was at risk as it plummeted towards US$1.200. Nervous investors were thinking about withdrawing monies held on deposit with European banks. A mini-flight of capital was already underway. Businesses and households had withdrawn €80-billion ($103-billion), from banks in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, during the first five months of 2012.
Monday, March 31, 2014
How to Profit from ECB’s Attempts to End Economic Depression / Currencies / Euro
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Remember what happened in the U.S. economy when the financial system was about to collapse? The banks weren’t lending to each other, businesses, or even consumers. The U.S. economy was in a deep economic slowdown. Investment banks like the Lehman Brothers had already collapsed and more would follow. Something had to be done or else it would be a disaster situation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2014
Mario Draghi Boosts Euro, Rebuffs Disinflation / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Another euro-positive ECB presser highlights the reasons for lower inflation, with the implication that low prices are of temporary nature. The conference re-affirms the ECB is in no hurry to use up its eroding interest rate armory to tackle disinflation risks without first considering unsterilising its money market operations.
Thursday, February 13, 2014
EUR/JPY Bounces From 138.00/50 / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
Yen crosses are rallying nicely for the last few days since the S&P500 has turned up last week. We can see very tight correlation between these two markets where structures on both suggests more upside. For FX traders, EURJPY will definitely be interesting for longs as pair rallied in five waves from the lows. However, patient traders will wait on pullbacks before they may look to get involved on the bullish side. Ideal scenario would be a three wave set-back to 138.10-138.90 area before market turns up for wave C.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 06, 2014
The Euro Is A Rearview Gauge Of Geopolitical Risk / Currencies / Euro
By: Andrew_McKillop
What Goes Up Will Go Down
Five weeks into 2014 the Eurozone-18 and even the EU-28's stock exchanges are being treated as something of a safe haven bet by investors retreating from “risk assets” in emerging economies. They also see the euro money as safe, but this is very far from sure. The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi has admitted either openly or by implication many times since the 2008 crisis began, that the euro is overvalued. Since 2008 and more so today, the euro still plays the role of a geopolitical barometer. The euro rises with global risk and the opposite, but this cart and horse combination is in no way timeless. It is under attack from the real world - and even by Germany.
Friday, January 31, 2014
EUR USD Bearish Wave / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD has turned bearish at the start of January from 1.3900 spike high which we assumed it represents final part of a bullish trend. From there market fell sharply lower almost 400 pips so we assume that pair has completed an ending diagonal. However, a key for a breakdown would be move through the red wave 4) swing low that is placed around 1.3300 figure, still far away from current levels.
Thursday, November 14, 2013
The One Dollar Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Andrew_McKillop
NOT A CENT MORE
In the years preceding the introduction of the euro dozens of meetings, conferences, books and PhD theses were focused on what rate against the dollar would be optimal. The favored figure was $1.17 but given today's macroeconomic, fiscal and geopolitical context $1 would suffice. To be sure, when the ECB has to raise interest rates, this may push the euro back up. Conversely, an euro held at an artificially high rate against the dollar can only further intensify Europe's economic slump and deflation crisis, and the directly related “bad bank” crisis.
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Elliott Wave Counts Suggests EUR/USD Heading Lower / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
The EUR/USD reversed sharply to the downside in the last few days, clearly in five waves from above 1.3800 with a daily and weekly close price beneath the channel line connected from July lows. This break indicates a change in trend, and possible completion of a larger three wave rally in wave E. But, as always we are focused on minimum expectations for the next few days and weeks, and that is a three wave decline from the top which is also expected on the alternate count which shows an incomplete wave E from 2012 low.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 04, 2013
USD Index and US Treasury Notes Suggest More EUR Weakness / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
A sharp reversal from the highs could be an early sign for a bearish trend on EURUSD which sooner or later will occur if we consider that rally from 1.2050 low is corrective. A decline from 1.3832 made last week looks impulsive so based on minimum expectations EURUSD will now move down in three legs, but ideally this is a start of a significant EUR weakness in impulsive fashion.
Monday, October 28, 2013
EUR-CAD Retracement Would Be Opportunity To Long Positions / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
Last week EURCAD has been published after very strong EUR against the USD and weak CAD against the same currency. In fact, EURCAD has much better and cleaner structure and EURUSD, so keep an eye on that pair may not be a bad idea. We however need some deeper retracement before we may look for any long entry. I will keep an eye on three wave retracement which is normally a, b, c, back to base channel line. If we get it then we will look for an opportunity to take long positions on EURCAD.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 21, 2013
EUR/USD: Looking For Bullish Opportunities Within Accelerating Price / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EUR/USD accelerated to the upside in the last few weeks and touched 1.3700 few days back which means that pair is trading extremely close to January high so it seems that rally from 2012 low is still unfolding. We are tracking an updated which shows a completed running triangle in wave (B) followed by a recent push out of the pattern that is now pointing higher, for a five wave rise in wave (C) towards and above 1.4000.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Euro's October Seasonals and Gold Shutdown / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Euro rallies across the board on breaking political and monetary news as:
-
Italian PM Letta wins a confidence vote in the Senate following Berlusconi's U-turn to support the incumbent government after 25 dissidents from his party gave Letta's government the numbers he needed for maintaining majority.
Monday, September 30, 2013
EURUSD: Bullish Contracting Triangle In Progress / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD accelerated to the upside in the last few hours from the lower side of a trading range. As such, with the latest time we see triangle as the best labeling in wave four, but we still need wave (e) before pattern is complete. Ideal support zone for end of wave (e) comes in at 1.3490-1.3510 region. If we are correct then we will see more impulsive ride on Euro in this week.
Tuesday, September 03, 2013
EUR-USD Could Be Forming A Major Turning Point For The Year / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD is trading nicely lower for the last week or so which could be start of a new larger impulsive bearish trend. However, decline from 1.3450 is actually still in three waves so corrective outlook must not be ignored but we will stay with current sentiment and focus on the bearish scenario as long as 1.3400 holds. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 19, 2013
Euro Advance Since April Low Looking Corrective, Be Aware Of New Sell-off / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD reversed higher few weeks back from around 1.2750 level, but recovery since early April still has a corrective look. With that said, we think that move is complex correction, probably a flat and that larger trend will continue lower, especially if we consider a five wave decline from 1.3700 and the start of the year. If we are correct then current bullish leg should stop somewhere around current 1.3400 -1.3450 resistance area.
Monday, May 20, 2013
EUR/USD: Bearish Cycles Remains In Play / Currencies / Euro
By: ForexPros
The EUR/USD reversed slightly higher on Thursday from 1.2840 support but not for long. Recovery found resistance very soon, so it was probably just a fourth wave within larger wave 3 down. Our bias remains unchanged and we are looking for a weaker EUR/USD, towards 1.2800 as a next projected target, where we could see a temporary low and a wave 4 pull-back. Short-term critical level is at 1.2935, as wave four must not trade into the territory of a wave one.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Buy or Sell the Euro? Chaos Investing Unplugged / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
When we called the euro the potential “rock star of 2013”, we knew it might be a rocky ride. Are we underestimating the incompetence of policy makers? The Europe that is shaping up is much like the old Europe, with implications for the dollar, the euro, and investors’ portfolios.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Euro Signs Of Caution For Upside Move / Currencies / Euro
By: Michael_Noonan
Oftentimes, first impressions are the best because the perceived information strikes the mind unfiltered by second and third impressions that may begin to second-guess the first. The weekly and daily charts of the Mar Euro are first impression expressions.
Many will look at this weekly chart, well, maybe not so many, but of those who do, they will see that the recent high rallied above the February 2012 swing high and conclude the Euro is acting well. We would disagree, and here is why.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 08, 2013
Why the Euro is Headed Higher / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_Morning
Jeff Uscher writes: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned about excessive euro strength at a press conference today (Thursday) following his announcement that the ECB had left interest rates unchanged, as expected.
In response to a reporter's question on whether there was a currency war in progress, Draghi said, "I think we should have in mind one thing: changes in the exchange rates that we see today are not really deliberate competitive devaluations. They are more the effect of macroeconomic policies that are meant to revamp the economies - for example, very low interest rates, promises to stay low for a very long time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2013
Euro Currency, Rock Star of 2013? / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
After we referred to "Draghi's Genius" last August we received pity and ridicule as feedback. It is no longer taboo to be bullish on the euro, but in our 2013 outlook we took it a step further, predicting the euro will be a "rock star." Despite the recent run-up, we may not have seen anything yet. Let me explain.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
The Road to the Euro: Birth Pangs of Globalism / Currencies / Euro
By: Rob_Kirby
From an historical context – it may be argued that global domination begins and ends – FIRST - with control of Europe. The unification of Europe, or global domination as a concept, is perhaps as old as war itself. Put simply, you cannot ‘rule the world’ unless you first ‘rule Europe’. History is littered with many examples of ‘would-be’ aggressors ***** oppressors who have set their sights on European conquest. While not exhaustive – here’s a list of a few:
Friday, December 07, 2012
EUR/USD at double support level / Currencies / Euro
By: Forex_Blog
1) 38.2% retracement of the uptrend which took place between Nov. 13th and Dec. 5th.
And
2) 22-Day EMA support level.
Monday, December 03, 2012
Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) Analysis / Currencies / Euro
By: Submissions
ForexAbode writes: EUR/USD Outlook For This Week:
Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) lost some momentum but has been still inching upward. The currency pair has been mainly staying over 5-day EMA. The sharp downward spike on November 29th found support near 22-day EMA (1.2880). The pair went as high as 1.3027 before closing for the week at 1.2985.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Getting Out of the Euro Is Easy / Currencies / Euro
By: DailyWealth
"It's not true, what all the politicians are saying about the disaster in exiting the euro..."
Czech Republic president Vaclav Klaus published an article in Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine this week. "I have a unique position being the last finance minister of a dissolving monetary union," he wrote.
Friday, September 07, 2012
The Euro Quacks Like a Fiat Currency, To Print or Not to Print / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it just might be a duck. We are talking about the euro: it now looks like a currency, acts like a currency, it might as well be yet another currency. The new framework of the European Central Bank (ECB) morphs the euro from a currency of nations to a currency of the United States of Europe. This has major implications on how to value the euro and with it, the U.S. dollar and other currencies.
Monday, July 30, 2012
The Inevitable Death of the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Alasdair_Macleod
On Thursday the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi was moved to defend the euro, after Spain’s government bond yields rose dramatically through the 7% level. And when Valencia asked the central government for a bailout, followed by indications that other cities and regions have similar problems, it became clear that Spain is in deep trouble. We have got used to the concept of too-big-to-fail; now we have too-big-to-rescue.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 23, 2012
Euro Shorts Smell Blood / Currencies / Euro
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Within the eurozone there are great stresses. At one extreme there are punitive costs of borrowing for Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy; at the other there is zero or negative interest rates for Germany, the Netherlands and Finland. Doubtless the first group begets the second, as captive investors in euros have to buy government bonds, and this requirement is being funnelled away from risk into safety.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 02, 2012
At Long Last the Euro Is Finally Being Saved / Politics / Euro
By: Christopher_Quigley
Friday the 29th of June 2012 will go down as one of the most important dates in the history of the Euro currency. In the early hours of that fateful morning German resistance to a rational and comprehensive
resolution to the Euro crisis was finally crushed. It will take some time for the full implications of this
historic result to filter through to the markets but the fact that the dark cloud of dissolution of the Euro is
now passing can only be positive.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 24, 2012
An Austrian Defense of the Euro, Hayek versus Keynes / Economics / Euro
By: MISES
Introduction: The Ideal Monetary System
Jesús Huerta de Soto writes: Theorists of the Austrian School have focused considerable effort on elucidating the ideal monetary system for a market economy. On a theoretical level, they have developed an entire theory of the business cycle that explains how credit expansion unbacked by real saving and orchestrated by central banks via a fractional-reserve-banking system repetitively generates economic cycles. On a historical level, they have described the spontaneous evolution of money and how coercive state intervention encouraged by powerful interest groups has distanced from the market and corrupted the natural evolution of banking institutions. On an ethical level, they have revealed the general legal requirements and principles of property rights with respect to banking contracts, principles that arise from the market economy itself and that, in turn, are essential to its proper functioning.[1]
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
How to Save the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
The management of the Eurozone debt crisis is dysfunctional. In our assessment, to save the Euro, policy makers must focus on competitiveness, common sense and communication. If policy makers strived to achieve just one of these principles, the Euro might outshine the U.S. dollar.
Friday, June 08, 2012
Will The Euro Survive? / Currencies / Euro
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE - Europe's debt problems are driving the world's financial markets and investors are trying to figure out whether the single currency will survive. Furthermore, the mainstream media is currently awash with scary forecasts about the impending collapse of the Euro and many pundits are now predicting a Greek or Spanish default.
Friday, May 25, 2012
Euro to Surge / Currencies / Euro
By: Zeal_LLC
The fortunes of Europe’s beleaguered euro currency have been heavily influencing US markets. Both stocks and commodities have been battered down recently by overwhelming euro bearishness. This has proven seriously vexing for traders trying to focus on fundamentals. But the extreme euro pessimism worrying everyone is actually very bullish. This loathed, oversold currency is due to surge again.
Friday, May 25, 2012
Euro/Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Technical Update / Currencies / Euro
By: Dr_Volkmar_G_Hable
As most investor are aware the Swiss National Bank put a floor of 1.20 CHF into the exchange rate in September 2011 and has stated on a couple of occasions that it will do everything to defend that level. The move was necessary in order to stop the free fall of the Euro against the CHF. Speculators trying to push it since then have been quickly caught by the Swiss National Bank since then.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 24, 2012
German Economic Locomotive Being Dragged Down, Euro's Cyclical Path / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
More evidence of the German locomotive dragged down by the rest of the European continent as German manufacturing PMI dips to 45.0, its lowest figure since May 2009. The French version of manufacturing PMI hit 44, also a 36-month low. EURUSD hits a fresh low on the year at $1.25, down 3.3% year-to-date, and down 7.0% from its February highs. Our warning that the PMIs were a more effective leading indicator than the IFO or ZEW was first made in March, stating the reasons in more detail.
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Greece Will Leave Euro this Summer / Currencies / Euro
By: Bloomberg
John Taylor, founder of the world's largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts, spoke with Bloomberg TV's Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen and said that Greece will leave the euro this year. He went on to say that, "this summer I think is very likely...the Europeans aren't going to give them money, the IMF's not going to give them an OK. They will be out of money in June."
Monday, April 30, 2012
Is the US Killing the Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Dr_Volkmar_G_Hable
In 2004 for the first time it was reported that criminals were shunning US-Dollars in favor of Euros. Near Acapulco (Mexico) on Wednesday, December 8th, 2004, two armed men hijacked a bus threatening to blow it up with explosives unless their demands were met, one of which being a ransom payment of two million Euros (LA Times, 11th December 2004, p7). Obviously, the actions of these hijackers are deplorable, but it demonstrated a turning point for the Euro and just how great the disdain for the United States Dollar has been. Even hijackers shun US Dollars. The reason for such behavior can be found in the chart below:
Monday, April 23, 2012
Is There No Escape from the Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Philipp_Bagus
As I discussed recently, the costs and risks of maintaining the eurozone system are already immense and rising. So is an exit possible? Intuitively, the exit from the euro should be as easy as the entrance. Joining and leaving the club should be equally simple. Leaving is just undoing what was done before. Indeed, many popular articles discuss the prospects of an exit of countries such as Greece or Germany.[1] However, other voices have rightly argued that there are important exit problems. Some authors even argue that these problems would make an exit from the euro virtually impossible. Thus, Eichengreen (2010) states, "The decision to join the euro area is effectively irreversible." Similarly, Porter (2010) argues that the large costs of an exit would make it highly unlikely. In the following we address the alleged exit problems.
Sunday, April 08, 2012
Hey Joe Get Over It …They Won’t Throw the Euro-Baby Out with the Bathwater / Politics / Euro
By: Andrew_Butter
Watching the gurus strut their stuff on Bloomberg and CNBC it’s hard not to feel there is an undercurrent of glee that the Euro is in trouble. Finally the focus has shifted from the economic havoc wrought by the unholy and unnatural alliance between the state and the private sector which created the U.S. housing bubble, which created a multi-trillion hole in the balance sheets of U.S. and incidentally, Euro-zone and British, banks, pension funds and insurance companies.
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Where is the Euro Headed? / Currencies / Euro
By: Submissions
Marc Horn writes: The Euro composite started as a basket index and then became the Euro Index and is pretty much as close to textbook of Andrews pitchforks. When combined with MAP waves, an alternative wave counting method base on many principles of Elliot waves, it gives good results as to approximately where the market will move.
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Will Currency Devaluation Fix the Eurozone? / Currencies / Euro
By: Frank_Shostak
The NYU professor of economics Nouriel Roubini said in Davos, Switzerland, on January 25, 2012, that tight policies are making the recession in the eurozone worse. According to Roubini what Europe needs is less austerity and more growth. In particular, the NYU professor is concerned about the deep recession in the eurozone's peripheral countries: Spain, Portugal, Greece — all are on a strict regime of austerity. For instance, in Spain the yearly rate of growth of government outlays stood at minus 12.4 percent in November against minus 15.7 percent in the month before. In Portugal the yearly rate of growth stood at minus 3.6 percent in December against minus 2.5 percent in November. In Greece the yearly rate of growth fell to 2.9 percent in December from 6.2 percent in the prior month.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Eye on Euro and Gold / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Well, wouldn't we all like to know what new ECB head Draghi is thinking about Mr. Market's response to his "cheap money give-away" right about now.
EUR/USD has plunged from 1.3200 to 1.3030/40, which has dragged down all the sympathetic and synchronized global equity and commodity markets too -- all in the last two hours or so!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 16, 2011
Where the Euro Should be Trading / Currencies / Euro
By: Bloomberg
John Taylor, founder of the world's largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts LLC, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Lisa Murphy. Taylor talked about what currencies his fund is currently investing in and gave his thoughts on the euro and USD.
On where he thinks the euro should be trading:
"It seems to me that [the euro] should be a lot lower than it is."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Euro most expensive in Greece / Currencies / Euro
By: Pravda
The euro is overvalued in several countries of Southern Europe. The joint European currency is undervalued in other countries of the European continent, particularly in the north and in the center of the EU. The euro is most expensive in Greece and least expensive in Belgium, experts said.
Europe's southern states, which have debt problems, are supposed to be interested in a weaker euro. However, it is impossible to do it in one separate state since the currency is common for many other countries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Euro May Not Survive Christmas / Currencies / Euro
By: Pravda
The European debt crisis is gathering pace. The debt of the Eurozone countries totals 89 percent of the GDP vs. the required 60 percent. The crisis has hit both secondary and primary economies. The public debt of Greece makes up 166 percent of the GDP, Portugal - 106 percent. The largest economies of the region also exceed the limit: Germany - 83 percent of the GDP, France - 87 percent, Spain - 67 percent of the GDP.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 18, 2011
Germany and France Divided: End of The Road for The Euro? New Beginning for the Deutsche Mark? / Politics / Euro
By: DK_Matai
1. Divisions between Germany and France have widened significantly in regard to a common Eurozone solution as borrowing costs outside of Germany rise to euro-era records;
2. The German government is standing firm in its opposition to deploying the European Central Bank (ECB) for the bailout of faltering Eurozone sovereigns;
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Is Germany Eyeing the Euro Exit? / Currencies / Euro
By: Ben_Traynor
German leaders talk about "more Europe"…but are they just buying time…?
THIS IS just an idea – but perhaps Germany is only pretending to want more European integration.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Why Is There a Euro Crisis? / Currencies / Euro
By: Philipp_Bagus
On Thursday, October 28, 2011, prices of European stocks soared. Big banks like Société Générale (+22.54%), BNP Paribas (+19.92%), Commerzbank (+16.49%) or Deutsche Bank (+15.35%) experienced fantastic one-day gains. What happened?
Today's banks are not free-market institutions. They live in a symbiosis with governments that they are financing. The banks' survival depends on privileges and government interventions. Such an intervention explains the unusual stock gains. On Wednesday night, an EU summit had limited the losses that European banks will take for financing the irresponsible Greek government to 50 percent. Moreover, the summit showed that the European political elite is willing to keep the game going and continue to bail out the government of Greece and other peripheral countries. Everyone who receives money from the Greek government benefits from the bailout: Greek public employees, pensioners, unemployed, subsidized sectors, Greek banks — but also French and German banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Odds Stacked Against Eurozone, Euro Currency Likely to Sink / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
What do the “Big Fitz,” the largest ship ever to sail the Great Lakes, and the Eurozone have in common? Hint: the former sank without a trace. Or, as Grant Williams so eloquently puts it, in his Things That Make You Go Hmmm... for Nov. 13 (this week's Outside the Box), “One can't help but think ... that this week may well have brought us to the wall at the end of the road down which Europe has been kicking the can for quite some time now.”
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
What Do Wave Charts Say About the Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Glenn_Neely
This article is Part 1 of a 3-part interview series with Glenn Neely, founder and president of NEoWave Institute. In these 3 interviews, conducted by blogger Bud Fox, Glenn Neely looks ahead at 3 specific trading markets (Euro, Gold, and Treasuries) through the lens of Wave structure and explores what Wave theory tells us about the next 5-10 years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
The Euro is Dead. Long Live the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
To ensure the European sovereign debt crisis doesn’t go to waste, the markets have kept policy makers and bankers on their toes. The naysayers of a European turnaround have become so overwhelming that it is stunning Europe hasn’t submerged into the Atlantic Ocean yet. It appears that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the cautious woman with the checkbook, is about to turn the tide.
Friday, October 07, 2011
European Politicians Fiddling While the Euro Burns / Politics / Euro
By: John_Browne
Last week, eurozone finance ministers postponed, yet again, the most difficult decisions on the Greek debt crisis. The assembled powers could have forced an orderly Greek default or they could have taken steps to push Greece out of the union. Instead, they simply bought time until the next major rollover of Greek debt - which comes due in November. I don't expect much to come from the brief respite.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 30, 2011
What the Euro Will Look Like in Five Years / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_Morning
Sean Hyman writes: Believe it or not, there was a time when investors saw the euro as the savior currency of the world.
People talked about how the euro would replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency - and there was plenty of proof to support that opinion.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Enron-i-sation of Europe; Is the Euro "Beyond Rescue"? / Politics / Euro
By: Mike_Shedlock
Steen Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo bank in Denmark discusses the Enron-i-sation of Europe in an Email "Macro Brief"
Read full article... Read full article...The Enron-i-sation of Europe: Finding solutions through SPV’s speak for themselves. Apart from the inability to being implemented (if German constitutional court is heard) it’s also a slippery road towards permanent aid. Hiding debt in more and more obscure vehicles is similar to Enron having 1000s of SPV hiding the “real issue”. Debt is debt. It needs to be paid back or someone needs to take a loss!
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Fed's Twist, ECB's Turn, Euro Shouts / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The FOMC has done what was expected via Operation Twist; buying the same amount of Treasuries ($400 bln) as much it will sell, thereby maintaining the size of its balance sheet at $2.87 trillion. This explains today's jump in USD. And the fact that the Fed stayed away from cutting interest rate on overnight reserves is another positive for USD & negative for equity indices.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Potential Euro Collapse and Rapid Redistribution Of Personal Wealth / Currencies / Euro
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a significant chance that the Euro itself will collapse in the coming weeks or months. Although the highly likely Greek government default may act as the trigger, the collapse of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and its currency is a quite different event from a single minor member defaulting on its debts. As discussed herein, the potential rapid annihilation of what used to be a global reserve currency could lead to one of the fastest and sharpest redistributions of wealth in financial history. If catastrophe takes down Europe's economy and banking system, then we may see repeated tidal waves of business collapse and spiking unemployment spreading out from the EU, and slamming into the already weak but tightly interlinked economies of the US, Japan, Canada, Australia and others.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Why the Euro is Not a Good Short / Currencies / Euro
By: Capital3X
No matter how bad the situation in EU zone is, the current price action is speaking a different language. Euro is not a good short at these levels. On the contrary, EUR/USD and EUR/GBP are building up a tremendous consolidation last seen probably in 2007. We know what happened then as it broke away to hit all time highs at 1.62. We are not saying it will do so now but the case to do so exists.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Eye on Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
It is interesting that the EUR/USD is circling unchanged this morning while spot gold price continue to climb in reaction to the ongoing impasse in the U.S. debt ceiling debate. You would think that if the desperate elements within the EC political structure managed to find common ground to deal with (quarantine) Greece during a crisis, that U.S. politicians would be able to put aside some of their differences to end this game of brinkmanship to avert an unprecedented crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 15, 2011
EUR/USD Next Bear Leg Now in Process / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
Our previous Update on EUR/USD highlighted a key reversal week in early May, which has marked the start of a consolidation/correction phase. Following renewed weakness we look at where the next supports reside.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 06, 2011
EURO Set to Soar Over Next 5 Years, Reason 10 year Debt Schedule of Europe / Currencies / Euro
By: Submissions
Many are going to receive this with skepticism. EURO is set to soar esp against the US dollar and UK pound.
As per the EU stat released debt maturity schedule of PIIGS, a total of 370 bn euros was paid in 2010 while 328 is set to be paid in 2011. What is important to understand though is that the amount due to be retired decreases to 96.5 bn euros in 2016.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 01, 2011
Is the Euro in the Clear? / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Greek Parliament has voted to accept the austerity measures demanded by the IMF/EU/EZ in return for additional financial assistance, is the crisis for the Euro zone over or is it just a sticking plaster applied to a deeper wound?
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Euro Maintains Upper Hand Against U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
For all of the trepidation about a Greek default, and the possible dis-integration of the euro, it appears to still have the upper hand in its relationship with the dollar.
Perhaps Chairman Bernanke would not want it any other way at the moment?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 27, 2011
The Twin Spiral USD And EUR Collapse / Currencies / Euro
By: Andrew_McKillop
BYE-BYE THE EURO, HELLO THE DOLLAR
The basic problem of the Eurozone-17 nation group using the euro dates from long before the euro's
creation and its proven unworkability was well known in advance. There is no excuse for this. From the
often crisis-wracked EMU system (European Monetary Union) starting with the 1980s Ecu system and
becoming the EMU in 1992, the creation of the ECB central bank from the central banks of Eurozone
member countries, closely linked with non-members like the UK, only intensified political playacting
and meddling in the economy. The excuse for this was supposedly to foster federal-type political
integration of the European Union and achieve the goals of mostly forgotten treaties (except to
Eurocrats) such as the coal and steel community and Euratom.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
The Breakup of the Euro and Euro-zone? / Currencies / Euro
By: Michael_Hudson
Last month Iceland voted against submitting to British and Dutch demands that it compensate their national bank insurance agencies for bailing out their own domestic Icesave depositors. This was the second vote against settlement (by a ratio of 3:2), and Icelandic support for membership in the Eurozone has fallen to just 30 percent. The feeling is that European politics are being run for the benefit of bankers, not the social democracy that Iceland imagined was the guiding philosophy – as indeed it was when the European Economic Community (Common Market) was formed in 1957.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Euro Peering Over the Abyss, What will the E.U. Do? / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
I have been doing a lot of reading this week, and today we look at some of the thoughts that keep coming to my mind. We'll think about the declining importance of economic theory (which is a tragedy) and then cast our eyes to Europe, where a truely tragicomic drama is being performed. Who needs the movies when you have the EU? There is a lot to talk about.
But first, some of my thinking has been deeply colored by some recent Conversations I have had with Neil Howe, Lacy Hunt, Dylan Grice, and George Friedman. Those audios and transcripts will soon be on the Conversations website, and others will join them shortly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 13, 2011
EUR/USD Negative Key Reversal Gives Bulls Pause / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
This year’s uptrend recently neared a 76.4% recovery level, but a sell-off last week has stopped bulls in their tracks for now, with current risk of further losses shorter term.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Why the Euro Currency is Doomed / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_Morning
Jack Barnes writes:
The Eurozone project has seen better days, which is why the future of the euro isn't a bright one.
In fact, as all the latest speculation about Greece either abandoning the euro currency - or being booted out of the Eurozone outright - is demonstrating, "the market" is about to apply a level of pressure well beyond what the Eurozone and European Union (EU) were designed to handle.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 01, 2011
Bulls in EUR/JPY Remain a Driving Force / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
Long term support in EUR/JPY remains around a 76.4% pullback level (recently retested), and a better recovery is still a prospect following the recent brief sell-off.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
ECB Peripheral Divergence and EUR/USD / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The primary reason for the currency's stabilization earlier this year and the subsequent 10% rally from early Jan was the ECB's hawkish rhetoric in the face of rising inflation. 2.4% annual inflation was a sufficiently good reason for the ECB to make a hawkish twist, especially as it underwent the awkward task of having to buy Irish and Portuguese bonds, while preaching monetary discipline and price stability. Bernanke's constant reiterations to maintain QE2 into June did not help the US dollar and neither did the low-volume surge in global equities to fresh 2 ½ year highs.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Euro Nears $1.40 as Global Tensions Soften / Currencies / Euro
By: LiveCharts
Major financial markets are reacting early Thursday (March 3) morning to word from the Arab League that it is seeking ways to end the crisis in Libya.
Heightened revolution and political tension in the Middle East has dominated global news during the last few months. It has also impacted speculation in many investment markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 08, 2011
Which Currency Will Crash First? / Currencies / Euro
By: Rosanne_Lim
2010 was an exciting year for currencies. The dollar, euro, the yen, and the yuan all went under the spotlight. Except for the yuan, each experienced drastic swings wrought about by internal or external factors. But overall, these events underwhelmed confidence in paper money. The main reason is because of the sovereign debt crisis that swept the world.
Most of the developed nations including the United States, Japan, and a number of European countries have unsustainable debt. The US and Japan, for example, are heading towards insolvency. Meanwhile, the only reason why several countries in the EU haven’t defaulted is the bail-out by stronger EU members.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Why Japan Needs a Weaker Yen, and How You Can Play It / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
Standard & Poor’s downgraded Japan’s sovereign debt rating this week. It was the first cut in Japan’s rating in nine years. Japan now joins Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain — all of which have been downgraded in the past twelve months; hardly the kind of company a country wants to keep.
I’ve said many times that in a world mired in debt and deficits, it’s only a matter of time until Japan has its turn under the spotlight of global scrutiny. And with this downgrade, it could be sooner rather than later.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
China Plays Europe Card, Ramifications of Chinese Dollar Swap Facility / Currencies / Euro
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Whether Americans and Westerners in general like it or not, the Chinese have become and will remain the key drivers to many economic and financial market developments, progress, and averted wreckage. The intrepid lapdog US press, loyal to the syndicate, is a critical element to maintain distractions. Of course, China must adapt and react to their own stumbles and accidents, assured since for years they have maintained a tight link in monetary policy. Doing so has linked their asset bubble expansion and bust cycle to the deadly one in the United States, and filled their coffers with US$-denominated toxic debt securities.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Euro's Reversal of Fortune & Outlook / Currencies / Euro
By: Dian_L_Chu
The Euro closed up Friday`s session at 136.13, and looks poised to make a run up to test the 140 level in February. I, among many, was thinking the Euro would next test the 125 level, and things started heading well in that direction with the Euro moving down to 129, and appearing on a downward slope.
So what happened? Well, there have been quite a few new developments that prompted this reversal of the euro fortune.
Friday, January 21, 2011
European Debt Crisis: How to Profit No Matter What Happens / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
Since the European debt crisis first emerged in early 2010, it has dominated headlines, roiled the world financial markets, and has kept investors in a perpetual state of alert as they wait for the next shoe to drop.
But let me share with you a little-known secret: Investors who understand where the "fault lines" are forming in this Eurozone debacle can transform the biggest sovereign-debt crisis in years into a major profit opportunity.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 17, 2011
Medium Term EUR/GBP Downtrend Resuming / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
A medium term bear signal in the EUR/GBP cross was given in the first half of 2010, with subsequent recovery finding good technical resistance last October. Renewed weakness now looks like the resumption of the main downtrend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 09, 2011
Falling Euro May Offer the Best Investment OPPORTUNITY of 2011 / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
As we start the New Year, the global investment climate looks remarkably similar to this time last year. The world is getting more bullish on the outlook for the U.S. Meanwhile, the unfolding sovereign debt crisis in Europe threatens to squash global risk appetite and send not only Europe back into recession, but perhaps trigger another global financial crisis.
Thursday, January 06, 2011
Euro Currency New Year, New Challenges / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
One interesting aspect of todays blow out +297K rise in Dec ADP is the cautious interpretations circulated for Fridays release of Dec Nonfarm payrolls. Recall the disappointing 39K increase in Nov payrolls from +172 in Oct despite the unexpectedly strong +92K ADP in Nov. Nonetheless, both the US dollar and 10 year yields are rallying across the board of further growth recovery in the US. Noting that Fed Chairman Bernanke will testify to Congress 1 hour after Friday's jobs report, we would expect the Chairman to reiterate the case for buying the entire $600 bln in QE2 even in the event that Dec payrolls show a blowout number with similar proportions to today's ADP (above 220K-250K). Yet despite those reiterations of QE2, bond yields will likely hold on to their upward trajectory eyeing 3.80% before ultimately regaining 4.10-15% in late Q1, which should help support USD vs. EUR, GBP and JPY.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Europe's New Plan to Save the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: STRATFOR
Europe is on the cusp of change. An EU heads-of-state summit Dec. 16 launched a process aimed to save the common European currency. If successful, this process would be the most significant step toward creating a singular European power since the creation of the European Union itself in 1992 — that is, if it doesn’t destroy the euro first.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Is this the week which brings “bad” fortune to Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Bari_Baig
It seems just about everyone has forgotten about the EU Debt Crisis which couldn’t get enough air time several weeks ago. Now, all of a sudden everyone’s attention is towards U.S or as the holiday season is approaching no one wants to look at the bad side of the picture [But] does that mean all is well? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 10, 2010
Ominous Euro Divergence From Rising US and European Equities / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
China's latest action to raise banks' reserve requirement ratios is no longer weighing on market sentiment as participants expect the more aggressive option of higher interest rates (borrowing and lending). The overnight decision to hike RRR for the 6th time this year is seen as part of a broader tightening.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
EUR/USD Targets 1.25 / Currencies / Euro
By: Bari_Baig
Last week on Dec 2nd after the ECB’s press conference Euro found additional strength on news that three months were being extended in the QEI program and by Friday’s close Euro had traded upward to 1.343s. Euro then rallied from 1.298s to 1.343s which is 5 Big figures and we had termed the move a bounce even before it took place as we wrote in our article [The Good Days [Euro] dated Dec 1st on www.marketprojection.net and [Euro, USD, Gold, and Stock Index Analysis] on Dec 1st on www.marketoracle.co.uk that “Edited note “summary”: coming two days would be good for Euro and we are “Bulls” as we find Euro extremely over sold at this point however, after 2 days the downside opens up even more and we’d therefore sell on strength” regardless of what we had anticipated we are willing to give all this credit to Mr. Trichet. Why? Because the only obvious effect of Mr. Trichet’s statement was on Euro and it too was further aided by weak employment data from the U.S on Friday which resulted in U.S Dollar falling fast.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 03, 2010
Is Euro really that Strong or it’s just a Bounce? / Currencies / Euro
By: Bari_Baig
Okay, let’s be fair, past two days have been wondrous for Euro without a doubt! It is difficult to understand how quickly war wounds are forgotten when the going gets “simple” and [apparently] things are going smooth, word of focus is “apparently”. Euro Bulls are cheering and well they have all the right to do so but should we also cheer with them? To an extent, yes as we wrote in our article [Euro, USD, Gold and Stock Index Analysis] dated Dec 1st on www.marketprojection.net that “We say [Go Bulls] for 2 days” and we further went on to define the move that Euro would take in coming two days with the top side at 1.337s as the Single European currency seemed too oversold to us.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 02, 2010
ECB Will Do Whatever it Takes to Save the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
The one thing worse than a fire in a building is a fire in a building when emergency exits are bolted shut: a panic in the market is exacerbated when liquidity dries up. It appears the European Central Bank (ECB) embraces this view: in today's press conference by ECB head Trichet, he re-iterated a number of times that non-standard measures are there to permit appropriate transmission of standard measures. In plain English, this means that whatever emergency support is given to the market is a) temporary in nature and b) designed to allow monetary policy and thus economies to function.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Could Gold Replace the Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Bari_Baig
The pace at which things are changing in this ever changing world is very interesting. Less than two weeks ago Irish government was reluctant to admit to a problem with the Irish Banking system. Outcome; Mr. Cowen panicked he did not just agree to the bailout package but to keep the fragile coalition in place he announced re-elections in January. Everyone touts about being democratic however, coalition governments seldom work [well] even when all seems to be going fine whereas Mr. Cowen has work cut out for him as he’s frantically juggling to keep things in place most importantly the Budget.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 26, 2010
Euro Fatally Wounded by Serial Sovereign Debt Bailouts / Politics / Euro
By: Mike_Shedlock
I have been warning since 2007 that European banks were in at least as bad a shape as US banks. Recent events in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain should make it clear to even the Euro bulls just how severe the stress on the Euro is.
One would think this would have caused the dollar-centric hyperinflationists and those who thought the Euro would be the world's next reserve currency to go into hiding, but instead several hyperinflation proponents have attracted followings by calling for hyperinflation in the US by the end 2011. One even offered seminars on how to deal with it.
Friday, November 26, 2010
EUR/CHF Bear Wind Blows / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
We last looked at EUR/CHF when bears seemed fully in control, but subsequent action has suggested that that tide is on the wane, with the first positive indication recently seen. The current pullback could prove temporary, with a fresh attempt on the upside to come.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 22, 2010
Is the Euro Finished? / Currencies / Euro
By: Kevin_George
In 2008, Irish finance minister proclaimed that in shoring up their toxic banks that it was “The cheapest bank bailout in the world!” Two years later and this cost was ‘expected’ to rise to €34bn. Fast forward to the present and the confirmation that Ireland has been forced to seek assistance from the EU/IMF totalling around €80bn.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 19, 2010
EUR/USD Bounce Closing in on Stronger Resistance / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The recovery in EUR/USD from the Jun low has, so far, been a 3-wave affair and recently found good resistance. There is now the risk that further weakness will mean curtains for the bulls as upward momentum seeps away.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
The Euro Back Under the Microscope, PIIGS Debt Crisis Round3 / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
Investors, politicians and the media have had tunnel vision for the better part of the past five months. And it’s been directed squarely on the United States.
The world has been transfixed on the dollar. Experts have tirelessly surmised how the Fed’s recent decision to launch another round of quantitative easing was reckless. And they’ve claimed this action will do irreparable damage to the buck — the world’s primary reserve currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 09, 2010
QE2's Done, Now Euro and European Debt Crisis To Take Center Stage / Currencies / Euro
By: Dian_L_Chu
Over the past month or so, world`s focus, currency markets in particular, has been centered mainly on the U.S. over QE2, the November elections, and the Job`s Report. As such, there have been some interesting headlines coming out of Europe that went quietly under the radar as Wall Street became infatuated with their own bullish sentiment.
Now, with QE2 and mid-term election pretty much behind us, guess where the market’s attention will shift to next?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Don't Fear the Euro Currency / Currencies / Euro
By: Michael_Pento
When the euro hit a low of $1.1917 against the US dollar on June 7th, 2010, the airwaves crackled with assertions that the European common currency, beset by Greek debt problems and intra-union discord, was destined to trade at parity with the greenback. They were wrong. Since then, the euro has risen over 17% against the dollar, hitting $1.3961 today. The current upswing, delivered courtesy of the Fed, has at least temporarily silenced the euro's critics. It should also serve to impugn the notion that the US dollar holds a permanent position as the world's reserve currency.
Monday, October 11, 2010
EUR/USD Bounce Closing in on Stronger Resistance / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The recovery in EUR/USD from a Jun low has turned out impressive, with a second bull leg now well underway. This has started to reach certain interesting resistance levels which the market could find tough to overcome.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Top Building Period for Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
We are long U.S. dollars against the euro now, to go along with our long dollar model portfolio position against the yen, which is a toe-dipping expedition ahead of what I think is an approaching period of lower gold prices, falling oil prices, and correcting equity prices...or in other words, a respite for the "risk-on" trade.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Euro nears $1.34 following Fed meeting announcements / Currencies / Euro
By: LiveCharts
Central Bank leaders elected to leave interest rates alone following their monetary policy meeting on Tuesday (September 21). The move extended weakness in the dollar and helped push the euro and pound higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Euro Moves Higher Against U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Euro
By: LiveCharts
The euro traded as high as $1.3038 earlier Wednesday (September 15) and currently sits at $1.3011 after upbeat US data this week has cause some speculators to move away from the dollar and into more high risk investments.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Euro Falls Hard on Renewed European Sovereign Debt Crisis Concerns / Currencies / Euro
By: LiveCharts
The euro has dropped sharply in the last 36 hours after new data showed risky debt held by European banks could be a bigger problem than was previously indicated.
The stress test of European banks performed by the European Union in July found that lenders would holding plenty of risky debt. The report indicated that German’s top 10 banks were $135 million below new capital requirements based on their debt situations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 05, 2010
China Knows the Fate of the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
This week, the U.S. Commerce Department gave China another pass on its currency manipulation, ruling against charges it was undercutting U.S. aluminum makers.
This puts China’s currency back on the radar for the politicians and others who, last June, were coaxed into thinking that China was making concessions on its weak currency policy. That’s when China announced they would be de-pegging the value of the yuan from the U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 20, 2010
Slip Back in EUR/JPY Currently Assumed Temporary / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
After EUR/JPY found interesting support from a long term 76.4% level earlier in 2010, initial bull signs appeared. The current s/term slip back might unnerve the early bulls but it is worth them keeping the faith for now.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Fed’s Wake-Up Call Gives the Euro a Dose of Reality / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
The Fed surprised many people this week when it announced it would respond to the deteriorating economy with more efforts to stimulate.
It was a splash of cold water on the face of the world, a wake-up call that hammered home the reality of the economic climate: The recession wasn’t normal, the recovery wasn’t real, and we’re only half way through what will likely be described as a global depression.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 13, 2010
Has the short-term move in the Euro Yen clarified the long-term outlook? / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
For most of May and June the Yen was a strong buy against the Euro, as traders sought safe havens to protect against the Euro zone Sovereign debt crisis. At that time, the Yen and Dollar were considered safe trades, especially the Yen, even though Japan runs a very high debt to GDP ratio and continues to struggle with deflation. But unlike the Dollar, Japan runs a healthy trade surplus, has foreign exchange reserves in excess of US$1.0T and most of her government bonds are owned domestically.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Euro Currency Follow Up Analysis / Currencies / Euro
By: INO
Late last week we produced a video on the euro (which was posted on our blog on Monday), making a case that the currency was very close, if not at its highs. Since then, we have had two significant events fall into place which made the dollar skyrocket against the euro.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Is the Euro on Shaky Ground? / Currencies / Euro
By: INO
In this short video we take an in-depth look at the euro and its
relationship to the US dollar. The recent sharp rally in the euro, up
from the 1.19 level, may be coming to an end.
We look at several indicators that are close to confirming that this market may be set to head lower.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 16, 2010
Euro Currency Rally Good for Gold / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The euro rally versus the dollar has really started to gain steam, propelling the euro to retest a major resistance plateau (formerly support) at 1.2880, which if hurdled and sustained will argue for additional strength that next should confront the sharply declining 200 DMA, now at 1.3315.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 15, 2010
How the ECB Engineered the Euro’s Recovery / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Dorsch
Trying to pick a winning trade in the foreign exchange market is similar to judging a “reverse beauty” contest. In other words, one must be able to identify the least ugly currency among its peers, at any given moment in time. All paper currencies are considered to be ugly, when compared to the “king of currencies” – Gold, since the central bankers are apt to print vast quantities of fiat currency, at the behest of government officials who have appointed them to run the printing presses.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Proshares Ultra Short EUO Euro ETF Trend Analysis / Currencies / Euro
By: INO
Here's an ETF that you may want to take a look at...
I just finished a new short video on an ETF that's looking very interesting. The video runs a little over two minutes and gets right to the meat and potatoes of this market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Euro Rally Profit Selling Opportunity / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
Over the past month, the talk from European officials about the sovereign debt crisis has gone relatively quiet.
Meanwhile, the euro has bounced aggressively from 1.1877 to over 1.27 versus the dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 09, 2010
Is the Squeeze Over in the Dollar Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
Despite the Dollar’s recent weakness against the Euro, we sense the market is undergoing a correction rather than a trend reversal. The situation in the Euro zone remains delicate. Indeed, the only thing that has changed in recent weeks is that the endless stream of negative commentary about the Euro zone has virtually dried up.
Friday, July 02, 2010
The Euro Makes a Stand / Currencies / Euro
By: INO
After dipping just below the 1.20 level, the euro had a brief rally that pushed this currency back up to the 1.24/1.25 area. This corrective rally did not change the longer-term outlook for this market.
Friday, July 02, 2010
EUR/USD Trying to Establish a Base / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
Earlier in June the Daily EUR/USD chart had shown signs of bear fatigue, although subsequent action proved muted on the upside. However, Thursday’s strength re-focuses attention on nearby resistances, through which a better, albeit temporary, recovery beckons.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Why I'm 100% Certain the Euro Will Fall / Currencies / Euro
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: I call it my "broken dam" indicator...
Imagine trying to dam a powerful river. You build the thickest dam you can afford. For a while, the dam holds the water back and a reservoir forms. As the reservoir gets bigger, the water's pressure grows. Eventually, the weight of the reservoir exceeds the strength of the concrete, and the dam starts crumbling. Sooner or later, the reservoir ends up in the valley... along with your dam.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Euro Under Pressure Means Forex Trading Should Not be Foreign to You / Currencies / Euro
By: INO
It's the biggest market in the world and is traded 24 hours a day, 6 days a week, and therefore one that is impossible to ignore. I'm speaking, of course, about the forex market.
The question is, is this the tail that's wagging the dog? Meaning, is the forex market, mainly the euro, dictating the trend in American and European equity markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Euro to Fall Further and Gold Breaks Traditional Relationship With Dollar / Currencies / Euro
By: Miles_Banner
The devaluation of the euro in recent months, which has continued in spite of huge political attempts to reverse the trend, has recently accelerated.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Euro Declines on a Sea of Bankruptcy and Paper Promises / Currencies / Euro
By: LewRockwell
Richard Daughty writes: Do you ever get the feeling that you are in some kind of weird dream, where someone is holding a pillow over your face so that you can’t breathe, and you can dimly hear your children asking, “Is he dead yet, mom?” and I am thrashing around and yelling out, “No, I’m not dead, you morons!” but nobody is paying attention? Me, too!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Euro Stabilized as Worst Credit Fears Subside / Currencies / Euro
By: LiveCharts
The Euro appears to be relatively stable this week, with a current rate of $1.2304. It actually reached a Wednesday morning (June 16) high of $1.2355 before receding a bit in the mid morning trade.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 11, 2010
It's Time to Close Out Your Short Euro Trade / Currencies / Euro
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Six months ago, in my newsletter True Wealth, I told readers it was time to bet against the euro:
This type of opportunity doesn't come along very often. It's time to bet against the euro. It's overpriced. A mountain of factors is against it. And a downtrend has been established – so it's time to make the trade.
Friday, June 11, 2010
ECB Inflexibly Flexible, A Turning Point for the Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
Following the European Central Bank's (ECB) press conference following its monthly meeting, President Trichet's main task was to boost credibility. As Trichet makes abundantly clear, the ECB is"inflexibly attached to price stability." To achieve its goal, however, he could have added the ECB needs to be inflexibly flexible. When quizzed on the ECB bond purchase program, a program that may take the ECB down a slippery road of money printing should it not be properly neutralized, Trichet discussed three elements: the purpose, the design and observation of the program.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Russia Clings onto Euro Currency Reserves Despite Plunge / Currencies / Euro
By: Pravda
Russia still trusts the European currency, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told Agence France-Presse and France 2 TV channel prior to his visit to Paris.
“We trust and believe in the euro. We wouldn’t keep so much of our reserves, gold and foreign currency reserves in the European currency otherwise,” Putin said.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 05, 2010
Prechter Bearish on Euro and Gold / Currencies / Euro
By: EWI
The euro's recent loss has been the dollar's gain, which means that it's not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn't such a good buy either. Watch the second excerpt from Robert Prechter's May 20 interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task to hear what Prechter thinks is in store for the U.S. currency and gold.
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
The Euro Zone Has Failed, Czech Republic President / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Shedlock
Has the Euro Zone "project" been a success or a failure? Václav Klaus, president of Czech Republic makes a solid case 'The Euro Zone Has Failed'
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Euro Crash And Real Resource Bancor / Currencies / Euro
By: Andrew_McKillop
From as early as mid-year 2008 it was possible to predict the overvalued Euro, always able to
gain from intrinsic US dollar weakness, was itself heading for a fall. Unsurprisingly and until late
2009 speculators first shifted to buying the traditional hedges, Gold and Oil, rather than directly
attack the Euro. This strategy was however soon troubled by the arrival of the sovereign debt
overhang from global economic recession. Contrary to first impressions, the US sovereign debt
crisis is at least as irremediable as European national debts.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Euro Crisis, The Hidden Agenda / Currencies / Euro
By: Sol_Palha
"Watch out for emergencies. They are your big chance." ~ Fritz Reiner
While everyone is focusing on the so called obvious factors, they have missed the most important factor; the real reason behind the crisis. The crisis started in Greece and the top EU members knew they were going to bail out Greece and potentially any other member that needed help, but they pretended that they would not. One of the obvious reasons for the bailout was not to protect Greece, but to save the bond holders; most of the bond holders are foreigners. That's the same reason the banks were bailed out in the US, to protect the large shareholders; it's all a game of smoke and mirrors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Critical Juncture - Update on the Euro, Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
Our long-term outlook on the euro remains more positive than that of many market participants. There are numerous reasons for our view, amongst others because it is more difficult to print and spend money in the eurozone. Fiscal coordination is rapidly improving in the eurozone, addressing the euro area's key deficiencies. Since the announcement of the $1 trillion credit line less than 3 weeks ago, Spain, Portugal and Italy have all passed substantial fiscal consolidation measures. Germany is also seizing the opportunity, proposing to reform labor markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Euro Collapse Looms? Panic Ban On Naked Short Selling / Currencies / Euro
By: F_William_Engdahl
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel says the Euro currency is at risk and that Europe faces its greatest challenge since the EU was formed. It comes as stock markets in Europe and Asia tumbled on the surprise news that Berlin was banning types of 'short selling' where investors profit by betting that shares will drop in value.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Euro Gains as Germany Finalizes Eurozone Support Package / Currencies / Euro
By: LiveCharts
German lawmakers have moved very quickly to officially put into a place a loan assistance package for debt ridden European Union countries. Citing the growing despair in the marketplace, German leaders noted that making the support package official was important to concerned consumers and investors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 21, 2010
Euro Panic Buying Opportunity / Currencies / Euro
By: Zeal_LLC
The condition of Europe has become the psychological linchpin governing the world’s financial markets. Even the notoriously insular American investors are fretting about Europe’s woes on an hour-by-hour basis, which is incredible. The euro currency has become the focus of the global Europe fears, trying unsuccessfully to shoulder this crushing burden. The result is the euro’s recent panic-like plunge.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Euro Trending Towards Parity to the U.S. Dollar, Fast! / Currencies / Euro
By: INO
Don't be surprised when one euro equals one dollar... it could happen.
As everyone in the Western World knows, Europe has been having its share of major problems. All of Europe’s trials and tribulations have had a dramatic affect on the performance of the euro, recently putting it under severe pressure.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Euro Crisis Totally Out of Control? Implications / Currencies / Euro
By: Christopher_Laird
The evolving Euro crisis is expanding and deteriorating rapidly. In only one week since the $1 trillion EU proposed bailout, the following happened:
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
If The Euro Collapses What Will Happen to the Oil Price? / Currencies / Euro
By: Andrew_Butter
According to the IMF World GDP in nominal terms expressed in dollars was $57 trillion in 2009. The European Union accounted for 29% of that; and lets say another 10% of the world implicitly or explicitly link their currencies to the Euro (for the sake of argument I’m assuming the Pound tracks the Euro and the Yen will track the dollar more or less).
Saturday, May 15, 2010
You're Not Too Late: Three Euro Trades You Can Make This Week / Currencies / Euro
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: In March 2009, the Federal Reserve announced it would spend $300 billion buying Treasury bonds...
The Federal Reserve has immense financial power. You'd expect this announcement to cause prices to rise in the Treasury bond market. And they did. The day they made the announcement, Treasury bond prices had their biggest one-day gain in history... and continued rising for a few days after.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Euro Crisis, The Worst is Yet To Come / Currencies / Euro
By: Sol_Palha
"If the thunder is not loud, the peasant forgets to cross himself." ~ Russian proverb
I think it is a given that Greece will have to default, everyone knows this, but they are just playing cat and mouse for now. Most Greeks are dead set against the new Austerity measures and they will likely throw this government out of power for the new changes they have instilled.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 14, 2010
Euro Under Extreme Pressure in Downward Death Spiral / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
If a picture is worth 1,000 words, then in the case of the enclosed 11-year weekly chart of the EUR/USD only one or two are required to put the situation into perspective: WOW! Or, alternatively, YIKES! In recent days, we have discussed the inability of the EUR to mount any sort of rally to regain Sunday evening's short-covering high at 1.3095, which at some point would bring in another round of "liquidators." Appropriately, the "long liquidators" emerged on a Friday, ahead of the European market close, and ahead of the start of the North American session. As of the open the EUR/USD was pressing into new low territory and heading for a test of the prior significant low at 1.2330 (1% beneath current levels) from Oct 2008.
Friday, May 14, 2010
EUR/USD Next Stop 2006 Lows / Currencies / Euro
By: Guy_Lerner
Well that was quick.
I definitely would have thought that the 2009 lows in the EURUSD would have provided a little bit more buying support, but that wasn't to be. As you can see from the weekly chart (figure 1) of the EURUSD, price is well below the key pivot point at 1.25674. This level is now resistance. The next stop is the 2006 lows, which reside in the zone between 1.16 and 1.19.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 14, 2010
Gold Rises as the Euro Vaporizes / Currencies / Euro
By: Andy_Sutton
This wasn’t supposed to happen. When it was introduced 11 years ago, the Euro was to be the world’s newest, biggest, and best yet currency. There were strict guidelines for getting into Club Euro and you’d better follow them if you didn’t want to be voted off the island. What became immediately clear is that there were stronger members and weaker members. That fact is becoming increasingly apparent as the real state of the Eurozone now comes into clear focus. Over the years, rules were bent, concessions made, and explanations given, all for the purposes of justifying short-term benefits such as the availability of Italian milk to the Club. Yes, Italian milk.
Friday, May 14, 2010
Euro Crash, ECB Losing Credibility as it Prints Money When It Said It Wouldn't / Currencies / Euro
By: Charles_Maley
If you really think about it, the Euro is as much of an experiment as it is a currency. As I mentioned in my previous post, the Euro idea was that 16 different countries could join hands under one united monetary policy. The trick is to accomplish this under separate cultures, political structures, and economic climates. How’s that working out?
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Does the E.U. Bailout Signal the Euro’s Death? / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: Does the European Union (EU) bailout signal an end for the euro currency?
Investment icon Jim Rogers and lauded economist Nouriel Roubini think so.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 13, 2010
The Demise of the Euro as a World Currency? / Currencies / Euro
By: Bob_Chapman
Greece has its immediate financing. Now the question is can they follow the prescription? In all likelihood the answer is no. The bond markets are reflecting that via a lack of confidence. In fact, some bond markets are falling apart and there is no end in sight. We have bond rating firms lowering ratings, as the rating services themselves are under serious fire and we do not believe they will be around long. The big question is why did it take two years and 10 months to react?
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Breaking News, Germany to Leave the Euro This Weekend? / Currencies / Euro
By: Mac_Slavo
The internet, and especially gold forums, are getting excited over the possibility of very big news from Germany this Friday.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Trillion Shmillion, Euro Europe’s “Common Currency” Is Still Doomed / Currencies / Euro
By: Justice_Litle
As far as the euro goes, the trillion-dollar "shock and awe" program was a shocking disappointment. Here's why.
"...while Europeans no longer fear foreign armies, they are starting to fear foreign bondholders. Europe's existence as a "lifestyle superpower' has depended on an ample supply of credit..."
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 10, 2010
Shock and Awe Euro Short Squeeze, Then What? / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Shedlock
The ECB, IMF, and now the Fed have come out with bazookas blazing in all hands. The amount of ammunition the fools are willing to throw at "Defending the Euro" is now up to $962 billion.
Sunday, May 09, 2010
Europe WANTS a Lower Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
The euro is in devaluation mode … in a sharp 17 percent decline against the dollar over the past five months. And I’ve written extensively on why, and why it still has further to go.
Now I believe a covert policy decision has been made by the European Central Bank (ECB) to use currency devaluation as a tool for the European monetary union (Emu) to survive.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 09, 2010
E.U. Finance Ministers Battle to Defend the Euro Against Speculators / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Shedlock
EU finance ministers are meeting this weekend in a mad race to Defend the Euro, whatever it takes.
On Friday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy Vowed to "Confront Speculators Mercilessly" via Secret Plans he could Reveal.
Saturday, May 08, 2010
Euro Crisis, Central Bankers Dream of Economic Decoupling / Currencies / Euro
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
It begins with government fiat. Money is mostly electronic. It is mostly "e". It is mostly a series of 0s and 1s in memory banks. Everyone by fiat must accept e-money in payments. It is made into legal tender.
We live in a world of central banks and fiat money. Central bankers are at the core of one portion of a larger government-created political economy. They are the department given the power to create and destroy the electronic bank reserves of ordinary banks. These reserves are nothing more than an e-credit asset account in an ordinary bank's computer memory and an offsetting e-liability account in the central bank's hard drive.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 07, 2010
Lower Support Sought in EUR/USD After 76.4% Failure / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
In this week’s FX Specialist Guide we had been looking closer for evidence of support, on the approach to 1.3000. However, in a sign of bears’ current strength, this level was quickly violated, calling for lower chart levels in what looks to be developing nicely into a second medium term bear leg.
Thursday, May 06, 2010
What if the EuroZone Breaks Up? Looking to the Collapse of the Soviet Union for Answers / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
Let's have a thought game. What if the Eurozone breaks up? My friend and very serious philosophical thinker Charles Gave (of GaveKal) thinks that would be a positive event. To quote his conclusion:
"But we return to the most simple of questions, namely: Was the end of the USSR a negative event? When Americans stopped wasting capital building empty condos in Florida or Arizona, was that bad news? If, like us, our reader answers "no" to the above questions, then the Greek crisis should be seen as a reason for hope, rather than despair."
Tuesday, May 04, 2010
Euro in Decline, Possible Headwind for Gold GLD ETF / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's notice that the euro has pressed below the up trendline that originated in 2002, and cuts across the price axis this week at 1.3080. Today's plunge to a new bear phase low at 1.3020 has violated the trendline; however, in that this is a weekly chart, it remains to be seen if euro/dollar will close the week beneath 1.3080. If yes, then the euro should head still lower into the area of the Nov. 2008 to March 2009 lows, in the vicinity of 1.2800 down to 1.2400.
Saturday, May 01, 2010
The Euro Is Screwed, Investors Seek Gold Safe Haven / Currencies / Euro
By: David_Galland
Kevin Brekke and David Galland, The Casey Report write: On April 22, Eurostat, the statistical arm of the European Union, released figures on EU member states’ government deficits and debt for 2006-2009. The European Commission requires member states to report certain data every April.
Saturday, May 01, 2010
Where'd the Greek Money Go? How to Flee the Worst Currency Crisis in Three Decades... / Economics / Euro
By: Adrian_Ash
THERE IS NO last mover advantage in fleeing a debt default. Not least when it's so clearly flagged in advance.
So whether or not the Greek government has to restructure its finances – screwing one set of creditors or another – you can't blame Greek savers for moving a chunk of their money out of the country since New Year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 30, 2010
Euro Crisis a Death by A Thousand Day Trades / Currencies / Euro
By: Christopher_Quigley
Labour unrest, collapsing employment, bankrupt public coffers, riots and sovereign debt default.
This all might seem unexpected however in 1995 a former European Union economist Bernard Connolly foretold it all in his classic book “The Rotten Heart of Europe.” Connolly was hounded out of his elite job for telling the truth about the lies and obfuscation regarding the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism), the forerunner of the Euro. He knew that his instincts and training as a professional economist were telling him that the Euro would be a disaster for Nation States yet he was not allowed to articulate his genuine concerns.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 30, 2010
Is It All Over for the Euro? Forex Trading Video / Currencies / Euro
By: INO
Things have been bad in Europe recently. Between the travel restrictions due to the volcano and ash, as well as Greece not wanting to conform to strict fiscal policies, problems are adding up and adding weight onto the euro.
Monday, April 26, 2010
The Fall Of The Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Howard_Katz
Many a weekend since the beginning of the year has been occupied by a “crisis” in the euro. But this weekend’s “crisis” seems to be the mother of them all. As such, it will probably put an end to them, and the gold market will pull out of its funk and resume its bull trend.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
What I Am Watching EURUSD / Currencies / Euro
By: Guy_Lerner
The EURUSD cross rate has been bouncing around its weekly key pivot point for several weeks now. See figure 1, a weekly chart of the EURUSD.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Euro Crisis, Greek Bonds Crashing and Capital Flight as Default Risks Soar / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
It’s been two weeks since the bailout speculation surrounding the Achilles’ heel of the euro zone, Greece, has had some closure.
European officials kept the balls in the air as long as they could in an attempt to distract speculators … to manage fears of a Greek and euro-zone crisis. It was a carefully orchestrated game of confusion.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 07, 2010
Alert, Euro On Verge of Real Crisis / Currencies / Euro
By: Christopher_Laird
Something big is up, and it’s possible the Euro is going into a real crisis within two months…Is this the next big market surprise ala Lehman? Not exactly like Lehman, but of the scale of that crisis that shook the entire world and almost caused worldwide bank shutdowns in Fall 2008? I am beginning to think so, and have been discussing this looming new worry for subscribers, IE we are right at the cusp of something big for the Euro and the European Union, not only financially but very much so politically. Imagine what a real Euro crisis would do to – everything!
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Euro Currency Bashing, How Perceptions Have Changed / Currencies / Euro
By: Claus_Vogt
Not long ago the euro was rising, and everybody seemed to hate the U.S dollar. During that market phase I constantly asked a rhetorical question: Why do you think the euro is any better than the dollar?
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Next Down Leg for the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
There are two major issues facing global currencies in the months ahead. And both have escalated in the past week.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Feldstein and Goldman Sachs Say Buy Euro's Now / Currencies / Euro
By: Dian_L_Chu
Former European Commission President Romano Prodi this week said the worst of Greece’s financial crisis is over and other European nations won’t follow in its path.
The Sunday Telegraph also reported the European Union (EU) nations were preparing a “bailout package” for Greece that could exceed $34.4 billion as early as Monday the 15th, with Germany and France the main cash backers.
Saturday, March 06, 2010
George Soros Wants To Destroy the European Currency / Currencies / Euro
By: Pravda
George Soros, a billionaire and philanthropist, was accused of masterminding the financial plot, the goal of which is to send the European currency, the euro, down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 26, 2010
Short-term Bottom for Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As we noted Thursday, the technical set-up of the Euro/$US exhibits the requisite conditions for the establishment of a near-term bottom, followed by a relief rally to 1.3750-1.3800 in the upcoming hours/days. Let’s notice now that the euro is approaching initial resistance at 1.3720/50, which should give us a good gauge as the strength of the euro rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 26, 2010
Awaiting EUR/USD Reaction At 61.8% Level / Currencies / Euro
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The EUR/USD has continued to grind lower, reluctant to embark on any meaningful rebound phase. Earlier supports have given way but, now, the 61.8% pullback level has been neared, offering sidelined bulls another chance.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Gold Euro Record High, Euro-zone Crisis as Economies Cannot Devalue Against Each Other / Currencies / Euro
By: Adrian_Ash
It wasn't called the "irrevocable exchange rate" for nothing...
PRICING YOUR money in gold – in a world where everyone else does the same, and at fixed exchange rates, too – makes for a big problem if the welfare state begins gobbling up more wealth, year after year, than it earns in taxation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 21, 2010
The Future of the Euro Currency in Question / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
At the beginning of this year, I wrote a Money and Markets column entitled “Will the Euro Become the Most Hated Currency for 2010?“
At that time, the euro/dollar exchange rate was about 5 percent off of its 2009 highs. And we were just months removed from hearing the constant and broadly espoused opinions suggesting the euro would become the world’s next primary reserve currency — replacing the troubled U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Eight Financial Fault Lines Appear In The Euro Experiment! / Currencies / Euro
By: Gordon_T_Long
Tremors were heard across Europe and around the world last week. There was little mistaking the clear fracturing sounds of the European Monetary Union.
Receiving less fanfare than the political hyperbole of EU solidarity, was surfacing evidence of serious fissures that exposed similar financial schemes which took the US to the financial abyss.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Euro Is Not Gold, May Collapse Plunging Eurozone into Chaos / Currencies / Euro
By: Adrian_Ash
Borrowing at low German-style rates, the Eurozone states forgot to apply German-style limits...
ALTHOUGH hedge funds keep confusing the two, the Euro is not gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Europe's PIGS Gorging on Free Euros as ECB Bankrolls the Incontinent Subcontinent / Politics / Euro
By: Gary_North
The wicked borroweth, and payeth not again: but the righteous sheweth mercy, and giveth (Psalm 37:21).
The question arises: How wise is it to lend to wicked people? Not very. What about lending to national governments, whose representatives were elected in order to show mercy to certain voting blocs with taxpayers' money? Not very. Yet this is what has been done on a massive scale.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Why Worry About The Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Andrew_McKillop
From as early as first quarter 2008 it was possible to predict the overvalued Euro, always able to
gain from intrinsic US dollar weakness, was itself heading for a fall. Through 2008-2009 this was
delayed, with speculators first making unsurprising bets on the traditional hedges, Gold and Oil,
rather than mount direct attacks on the Euro. The recession also slowed the move to full frontal
attack on the Euro, since the fantastic national budget deficit of the USA, overseas debt, and
Obama bailout spending for Wall Street made, and make a weak dollar more than rational. The
Euro reached its all-time high against the Dollar in Oct 2009 at a little more than $1.50.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Bailout of Greece and the End of the Euro Currency / Currencies / Euro
By: Philipp_Bagus
The euro has been sliding against the US dollar for weeks. Concerns about the public finances of eurozone countries Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, the so-called "PIGS," have emerged in financial markets. Greece is facing the severest crisis, with its 10-year bond yield approaching 7%. The Greek government estimates its budget deficit at 12.7% of GDP in 2009. Gross government debts amount to 113% of its GDP. If the interest rate Greece has to pay for its debts keeps rising, the country may have to default on its obligations.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Euro Trashed? / Economics / Euro
By: John_Browne
The European experiment with a trans-sovereign currency is facing its first acid test. The flashpoint today is Greece, which looks set to default on its debt barring some outside intervention. While many commentators have been squawking about the immediate crisis as if it were the end of life on Earth, I would like to zoom out and discuss the history and longer-term outlook for the euro and its parent, the European Union.
Monday, February 08, 2010
Greece and Portugal Debt Crisis, Euro An Anchor of Stability? / Currencies / Euro
By: Axel_Merk
The world’s attention is on the fiscal malaise in Greece and Portugal. Just a few months ago, policy makers told banks to shore up their balance sheets with more sovereign debt. However, policy makers around the world have since raced to spend money in an attempt to reinvigorate their respective economies, leading to record deficits. Now everyone appears surprised that weaker countries are having difficulty financing their largesse.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
EURO March to Reserve Currency Status / Currencies / Euro
By: G_Abraham
Continuation of my colleagues analysis, Vishal Damor (Editor InvestingContrarian.com) dated 6 Feb 2010:
EU bonds are the safest bet. STILL!
The EURO has had its stuffing taken out of it over the last 2 months and it needs a lot of analysis and courage to back the EURO at this point of time. We do believe fundamentally that EURO is the future base currency and EU bonds are to be toast of the world central banks. Trichet has vehemently denied that EURO has no role as a reserve currency unless otherwise needed. It only means he will let the world sink the dollar and come begging for an alternative which will not be found anywhere else other than the EURO.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Euro Downtrend To $1.32 Under Construction / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
We pointed out 2 weeks ago that the ongoing decline (weakening) of the once strong inverse correlation between equities and USD would lead to a scenario of prolonged US strength regardless of the evolving trend in equities. As the correlation weakened from a strong -0.94 in November to -0.26 in the 1st week of January, it enabled us to forecast further advances in the greenback irrespective of intraday or daily moves in equities. By taking the other side of the coin and using the daily relation between EURUSD and S&P500, the positive correlation has now fallen from +0.94 in November to a statistically insignificant +0.27 (9-month low).
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Will a Threatened Euro Affect the Gold Price? Short-term Traders Beware! / Currencies / Euro
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank dismissed talk of Greece exiting the Euro as their national currency. The fact that he felt it necessary to issue such a statement meant that the prospect was being discussed outside the E.C.B. Instead, the EU is considering sanctions against the country to bring it into line with the E.U. The stress is high in the Eurozone!
Saturday, January 02, 2010
Sovereign Debt Crisis Could Cripple the Euro During 2010 / Currencies / Euro
By: Bryan_Rich
For the better part of 2009 the U.S. dollar was the world’s most hated currency. But it’s looking increasingly likely the tables could turn in 2010. And the euro could take over that unenviable title.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Euro Single Currency and the Pseudo Gold Standard / Currencies / Euro
By: Phill_Tomlinson
The Euros showing signs of stress lately. The Dollar climbed to $1.43, its highest in three months as the fiat race to the bottom continues. Greece's sovereign debt was downgraded with the third generation of a Papandreou residing at the helm in what looks to be another Greek catastrophe. Spain somehow continues to mask the mess it finds itself in. At some point the poison will inevitably seep through. Meanwhile with regards to the other PIIGS (yes thats two i's, Ireland and Italy) we find Ireland have launched their second cost cutting budget in an attempt to appease the other 'sounder' Euro states.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
EuroDollar Testing Key Near Term Support / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The euro continues to press lower, but let’s notice that the price structure is nearing a test of important support along the March-October up trendline, now at 1.4680, which must contain the weakness to avert a press to test the rising 50 DMA, now at 1.4625. If dollar strength, commodity weakness, bond strength and equity weakness remain connected at the hip, then the results of the test of major trendline could have extremely significant near- and possibly intermediate-term consequences. The ETF for the dollar is the PowerShares DB Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP) and for gold is the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Reflation Trade Continues, Euro Heading Higher / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The developing technical set-up in the Euro-$ could have extremely bullish
potential largely because the pattern since last October can be construed as
a double bottom (Oct-Mar) followed by an initial upmove from 1.2450 to
1.3735, followed by a pullback into the April 22 low that was contained
ABOVE the double bottom lows. And then, during the last two weeks, another
rally has emerged that is pushing up against key resistance at 1.3680-1.3735
- as the price structure climbs above its 50 and 20 DMA¹s ahead of its
upside breakout!
Saturday, March 07, 2009
Euro in Freefall as European Monetary Union Faces Collapse / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The biggest victim of the global housing and credit bubble may be the euro — the single currency of 16 European nations. Having just celebrated its 10th birthday in a free-fall, the euro is being exposed for all of its structural weaknesses.
The euro is managed with a common monetary policy. But a fractured fiscal and political structure has left it without a full toolbox to fight hard times. And this chink in the armor is threatening to make the euro's life-span short.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 21, 2009
European Monetary System at Breaking Point / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
When others were fawning over the European Union and its committee creation of the euro, Milton Friedman made this prescient and brilliant comment: “It seems to me that Europe, especially with the addition of more countries, is becoming ever-more susceptible to any asymmetric shock. Sooner or later, when the global economy hits a real bump, Europe's internal contradictions will tear it apart.” Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Euro Currency Fractures as European Bond Markets Diverge on Default Risks / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Dorsch
For almost a decade, yields on bonds issued by different Euro-zone governments moved close together. By joining the Euro-bloc currency regime, every member state could suddenly reap the benefits of “free-riding” in the Euro-zone bond market, or borrowing at almost the same interest rates as Germany , irrespective of whether the country's economic fundamentals justified the lower rate. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Euro Impact of a Euro-zone Country Defaulting on its Debt / Currencies / Euro
By: Victoria_Marklew
This question has been triggered by the fact that the price of insurance against debt default by Euro-zone members Ireland, Greece, Italy, Spain, and even Belgium, has jumped in recent weeks; that yield spreads against German bunds have ballooned; and that the sovereign debt ratings of Greece, Portugal, and Spain have recently been downgraded. These developments do not reflect an increased risk of default by any Euro-zone member, but rather show that investors have finally woken up to the fact that not all Euro-zone sovereigns are equal. The global credit crunch has led to an overdue market re-evaluation of the Euro-zone members. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Euro Doomed to Fail as Governments Pull in Opposite Directions / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
Milton Friedman famously predicted that the euro would not last past their first economic crisis. This week we look at commentary by Niels Jensen that explores the news from Euroland. Can the euro survive? He explores a number of options which are most definitely not on the radar screen for most investors. It is good to get a perspective from those outside of our own back yard. Note that when he says "our country" he is referring to Great Britain.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Euro Set to Fall Against the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: There's been a strong move against the U.S. dollar this week. But am I envious of the euro right now? Definitely not.
Technically the dollar is extremely overbought. So I expect a decent, near-term correction upward in the euro. However, according to my analysis, the euro is set to weaken substantially against the U.S. dollar over the next several months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Credit Crisis Actions Risk Collapse of European Monetary Union / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
Many of us in the US are focused on our own woes. But this is a global credit crisis. In today's Outside the Box, we take a look at the currency markets, which are in an historic upheaval and also look at what is going on in Europe. I suspect that Europe is in for a period of much distress, as the world begins to deleverage That is why one government after another will back the deposits of banks within their countries, for otherwise capital will flee to countries like Ireland and Germany which ARE guaranteeing the deposits for all banks in their borders. . Many European banks are leveraged 50 to 1 (not a misprint). I suspect that more government will do like Belgium and the Netherlands and inject capital directly into their local banks deemed too big to fail. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Will the Euro Escape the Maladies Inflicting the U.S.Dollar ? / Currencies / Euro
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Last week all was well, as no less a person as Paulson, the Treasury Secretary reassured us all that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were sufficiently capitalized. Last weekend a plan was put into effect to ensure their survival. The second largest bank failure ever in the States Indy Bank went bust. Many believe that we will see up to 150 U.S. banks go down in this worsening credit crunch. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
EUR USD: Pattern for Profits / Currencies / Euro
By: Black_Swan
Lots of times trading will reward you if you find patterns in historical price data and bet on it occurring again. It’s kind of like the whole “History repeats itself!” motto. Of course, history doesn’t keep on repeating itself, especially in financial markets. But there is another motto to remember: “The trend is your friend!”Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Debt and Demographics to Drive Euro Back to Parity Against the US Dollar / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
- The Problem with the Euro
- Swapping out Commodities
- The Euro at Par with the Dollar
Last week I wrote that we could see a drop in the price of oil as speculators seemed to be storing oil in very large tankers and "slow steaming" them to port in a bet that prices would rise. When everyone is on the same side of the trade, the time is right for a reversal. This is especially true when there is a large potential supply sitting on the sidelines.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Euro's Relentless Climb into Uncharted Territory / Currencies / Euro
By: Black_Swan
Pinpointing support and resistance levels in price charts usually isn’t too difficult. It simply involves finding previous points where prices bottomed out or topped out. But the task becomes a bit more difficult when there are no historical prices to target.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 11, 2008
US Dollar Strengthening as the EURO's Technical Picture is Deteriorating! / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: "The trend is your friend." I'm sure you've heard this market adage a thousand times before. And the wisdom behind that saying has, more often than not, proven absolutely correct. It's a lot easier to profit when you have the wind behind your sails.
When it comes to currencies, the trend has been "dollar down, euro up." For about the last five years, in fact, traders have been getting out of greenbacks and going international.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Gold to Soar in EURO's, as ECB Set to Track US Dollar Lower to Avoid Recession / Currencies / Euro
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
All markets, in their search for a reliable formula that satisfies the scientific and mathematical belief that market relationships are precisely measurable in something else, believe that gold is responding in an opposite way to the $. The corollary to that is, therefore it must be moving in synch with the €? In fact, in the € it has been rising. It is important to look a little more closely at this formula and the realities behind it. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Euro Currency Toast and The Race to Debase, Part II / Currencies / Euro
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The €500 note is more bling than a gold-plated Uzi. No wonder it's become so popular with gangsters in Moscow ..."
FOREIGN AFFAIRS magazine just called for the "end of national currency". Maybe it matters.
After all, " Foreign Affairs is the most important and influential journal of international relations in the world," as Cryptogon.com points out.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Euro Currency toast & the race to debase, Part I / Currencies / Euro
By: Adrian_Ash
"...If you think the Dollar looks weak on the charts, wait 'til you see what's wrong with the Euro..."
SERIOUS ECONOMISTS never much liked the Euro. Then again, serious economists never much bothered to make money from trading. John Maynard Keynes just goes to prove it.
World-famous scourge of both gold and "the long run", Keynes averaged nearly 13% per year trading the funds of Kings College , Cambridge , during the Depression. London 's stock market, meantime, ticked lower by half-a-per cent per annum.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Euro to Rally on Further ECB Interest Rate hikes and Yen Carry Trade / Currencies / Euro
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Hardly a dull moment in the currency market these days. Much attention centers upon central bank actions. The Bank of Japan held steady, as world speculators thank heavens. The Euro Central Bank held steady, as the US bankers thank heavens. But the ECB aint done hiking. The Bank of England held steady, just like the ECB, but earlier. The Reserve Bank of Australia held steady, from Down Undah. The Bank of Canada held steady, but now markets think they could hike soon. We live in a bond driven world, totally divorced from economic fundamentals, trade deficits, mismanaged economies, and bankrupt policies.
Some brief points are provided on currency matters, each detailed more fully in the April Hat Trick Letter due out over next weekend, the US income tax deadline. They all are pertinent to gold. From the other side of the chasm is the housing & mortgage crisis, another impetus for gold. Let it be known we have a 3-SIGMA event on our hands, a credit derivative early stage in the meltdown.
Read full article... Read full article...