Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Sugar Commodity Price Bear Rally

Commodities / Commodities Trading Apr 19, 2015 - 09:59 PM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Commodities

Sugar finally looks to have kicked off its bear rally so let’s quickly revise the situation using the daily and weekly charts.


SUGAR DAILY CHART

Since the last report price dropped a bit lower than expected. Well, a downtrend is clearly in force so continuing lower wasn’t really a surprise.

As expected, price busting the dots of the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (PSAR) indicator has led to price breaking the short term downtrend. A bullish bias remains in force with the dots underneath price.

I have drawn two horizontal lines which denote previous swing high levels. Price has already taken out the first swing high so a higher high will be in place on the chart. I favour price taking out the second swing high level at US$13.66 before any correction occurs.

Once a short term high is in place then price should come back down to put in a higher low. Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to try and determine where that higher low might be.

The Bollinger Bands show price currently close to the upper band while I favour a higher low to be back near the lower band. Any correction back to the middle band will need to be monitored as price bouncing off that band will indicate strength.

The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is looking strong by making new highs in overbought territory. I would like to see the final bear rally high accompanied by a weaker reading.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Momentum indicators both show multiple bullish divergences at the recent low while the MACD has just made a bearish crossover so a correction looks like it may be on the cards shortly.

SUGAR WEEKLY CHART



The lower indicators, the RSI, MACD and Momentum, all show a bullish divergence at the recent low and all now appear to be trending up.

The PSAR indicator now has a bullish bias after price busted the dots on the upside last week.

From previous longer term analysis in the article Sugar Price To Sweeten Up, I am expecting a large bear rally that potentially threatens the 2013 high at US$20.16 although price should not trade above that level.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from the October 2013 high to recent low and I expect a rally back to the 76.4% level which stands at US$18.21. This is just below the March 2014 high which is denoted by the horizontal line and price turning down there would create a bearish double top. The 88.6% level at US$19.22 also needs to be kept in mind although I doubt price will trade that high. Let’s see.

I have also drawn a Fibonacci Fan and I favour the 76.4% angle to provide resistance. This angle looks set to be just below the 76.4% retracement level around July this year. The 88.6% angle is another possibility.

I have also added a 100 period moving average which has provided resistance in the past and, while it may do so again here, I favour a more substantial rally.

And once this rally has run its course I favour a move down to new lows. Likely levels for the final bear market low were detailed in the article Sugar Price To Sweeten Up.

Bio

Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

Email - info@thevoodooanalyst.com 

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2015 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Austin Galt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in