Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

EUR-USD pattern still on track

Currencies / Euro Aug 26, 2016 - 09:26 PM GMT

By: Ken_Ticehurst


The Euro has spent the last year consolidating against the US Dollar, however it appears as though this long consolidation was just a breather in a longer term down trend. Our updated daily forecast pattern below, shows how we think this consolidation will end during the next few months.

Currently the 50 is below the 100 day moving average and they are all bunched quite tightly as is often the case before a decisive move, we expect the 50 and 100 day moving averages to converge and the begin to drop together and the 100 day is turning down. Our forecast shows the 100 falling below the 200 and 300 day moving averages, by the time that happens this weakness in the Euro should be well underway,

Whilst everyone loves to hate the Dollar, the simple fact is that the Dollar is the cleanest shirt in the laundry basket, sure it's not great but that's not the point. With a near 60% weighting for the Euro, to hate the Dollar is to love the Euro and quite simply that is not something that seems even remotely sensible at this stage.

The Euro zone is a continuing train wreck, nothing has been solved, the divide between the North and South continues to grow, the ECB seems set on a path of destroying the Mediterranean economies through continued bailouts, which serve only to alleviate the large German and French banks.

The third bailout in May of this year has done little if anything to alleviate the long term structural problems Greece faces, their debt to GDP ratio rather than declining is increasing, this is simply not the way to solve a debt crisis. This recent bailout has merely removed Greece from the critical list, like a patient being resuscitated and assuming that this will fix a chronic long term illness.

Conveniently this bailout allowed the can to be kicked down the road until after the German federal elections in 2017 and here is the biggest problem the Eurozone faces, its economy is simply not being run for the benefit of its citizens. It is an ideological and political enterprise that simply pushes ahead with a grand plan regardless of the consequences for many of its citizens. The Eurozone is run for the benefit of its political institutions.

Our forecast shows what we think will happen to the EURUSD over the coming months, our analysis of large structural patterns indicates that the last year was nothing more than a bear market consolidation and now we are about to enter the continuation phase where investors realise the same old problems will continue to re-emerge as long as politics trumps sensible economics.

Our forecast shows the pattern structure of how the Euro may well decline over the next year, it comes from a larger pattern that has been in play for over a year now and should finally herald another Euro crisis as investors continue to punish the currency for the structural mess the technocrats have failed to address.

No market rises or falls in a straight line and the Euro is no exception, sentiment is a key factor in the determination of how investors price assets. Regardless of the long term outlook for the Euro it cannot fall to its true intrinsic value against the Dollar in one go.

As price falls or rises away from perceived value (generally the value at which at which traders and investors were previously comfortable with) momentum starts to decay and price begins to consolidate just as the EURUSD has done for some time now.

Then provided the fundamentals haven't changed which with the Euro being driven by ideology rather than pragmatism is a given, the next wave down can begin.

It is our assertion that both the fundamental and technical picture both point to the next leg down in the Euro and consequently the next leg up in the Dollar Index are about to begin in earnest. Again we note this is not about how good the Dollar is, it is all about how bad the Euro is, it is after all like most markets relative.

You can follow our free forecasts on our web site, we post regularly on our twitter account which is embedded on our home page. Our forecasts use our moving average momentum analysis technique which coupled with our proprietary software, analyses each market we cover looking for probable patterns.

Because we now publish the underlying patterns our subscribers get unrivalled access to some of the most unique forecast charts available, and get a trading and investment edge over their competitors.

Our forecasts are fractal patterns that last for months and years, we monitor the development of these probable patterns continually to ensure we are on track. Our methodology is to create a most probable long term fractal pattern and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.

Ken Ticehurst

You can read more about our unique foresting system and moving average momentum analysis at our website:

Copyright 2016, Ken Ticehurst.  All rights reserved.
Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in