Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Fed Massive Injections of Liquidity to Fuel Surging Inflation

Interest-Rates / Inflation Jul 31, 2008 - 02:28 PM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Interest-Rates

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt amazes me how many investors are now concerned about a deflationary spiral occurring in commodity prices. They site oil prices that are slightly off all time highs or a falling CRB index as their examples. While it is true many commodities are off historic highs, it is hardly reasonable to project a continuation of falling asset prices given the state of the banking sector and the consumer.

I know that sounds counterintuitive given the current state of the credit crisis, but it is exactly that crisis and the Fed's response to it, which will soon forge the path to inflation rates the likes of which have never before been experienced in this country's history. The most important question investors must ask themselves is how inflationary is the current 2% Fed Funds rate?


In a real economy, low interest rates are the product of a high savings rates. When consumers defer consumption, banks find themselves flush with cash, they then lower rates to attract consumers to take on new debt. Likewise, when banks are short on funds they raise rates in order to preserve capital. This is the natural flow of interest rate cycles. But under a fiat currency system, as we made the mistake of embracing in 1971, all logic leaves the system. To give you a historical perspective, look at the chart below of the Fed Funds rate since 1958.

Source: TradersNarrative.com

We see from the above chart that the key overnight lending rate is at its lowest point since the years immediately after 9/11. And before that emergency rate was achieved, you have to go back to 1962 to find a commensurate level. It is important to remember that 46 years ago we did not have a 100% fiat currency system, so the 2% rate was a much more realistic and natural level of interest to charge. Notice most importantly, the long term trend of falling interest rates after Paul Volker took rates above 18% in the early 80's. His mission was clear, to absorb the excess liquidity in the banking system and economy.

The next chart below shows our love affair with consumption and debt rather than savings. Keep in mind the government seems to want to promote more of this behavior at any cost. For example, this summer's stimulus checks were unpaid for and temporary in nature. Since producers don't change long term production plans, these temporary gimmicks only promote inflation and increase deficits. In fact, recent official projections are that the deficit will reach $490 billion in 2009.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

The key metric here is that total debt as a percentage of disposable income was a mere 60% back in 1962. Today, we have debt levels at an all time high of 135% of disposable income and growing at unprecedented rates. The Fed must be very careful not to have rates rise too high and choke off the ability of consumers to service their debt.

The last two charts below show the decline in the personal savings rate. The first shows the decline from 1950-2005 and the second is a close up view of the last 8 years. This illustrates just how artificial and inflationary a 2% Fed Funds rate is.

Source: US Department of Commerce

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

According to the National Income Product Accounts (NIPA), we find that back in the early 1960's consumers saved about 8% of their disposable income. During the early 1970's it averaged about 9.5% and in the early 1980s it averaged close to 10.5%. Today we save about zero % of our after tax income. The savings trend of the American consumer is in a free fall yet we find that interest rates have followed that downtrend lower!

These statistics hammer home the point of how unrealistically low a 2% funds rate is today. It can only be achieved by massive injections of fiat money printing from the Federal Reserve. Since consumers are mired in record debt and are not adding to their savings, the Fed has been the sole provider of banking liquidity.

We have seen this play before. After the bursting of the equity bubble in 2000, the economy entered a slowdown that was combated by the Fed with a 1% Funds rate. A short and shallow recession ensued but was followed by the biggest bubble in our history—the real estate frenzy. While it is possible commodities may experience a continued pullback after their record advance, I believe it should be welcomed as an opportunity to purchase them at bargain prices. These ersatz interest rates have always led to inflation and will continue to do so to an even greater degree in the future.

Those that are in charge of our economy have come to the conclusion that the only way out of the collapse of this latest asset bubble is to create another one. This time however, the consumer is completely without any added savings. Therefore, the ridiculously low rate of 2% is more inflationary than at any time in our history. The Fed has come to believe that the economy cannot tolerate a real interest rate because debt on the private and public level has become intractable. Knowing this, can you really start believing in a 1930's style deflation? Protect yourself by owning something the government can't devalue by decree. Unless the government perfects alchemy, buy gold.

Michael Pento
Senior Market Strategist
Delta Global Advisors
800-485-1220
mpento@deltaga.com
www.deltaga.com

With more than 16 years of industry experience, Michael Pento acts as senior market strategist for Delta Global Advisors and is a contributing writer for GreenFaucet.com . He is a well-established specialist in the Austrian School of economic theory and a regular guest on CNBC and other national media outlets. Mr. Pento has worked on the floor of the N.Y.S.E. as well as serving as vice president of investments for GunnAllen Financial immediately prior to joining Delta Global.

Michael Pento Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules