Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks Correct into Bitcoin Happy Thanks Halving - Earnings Season Buying Opps - 4th July 24
24 Hours Until Clown Rishi Sunak is Booted Out of Number 10 - UIK General Election 2024 - 4th July 24
Clown Rishi Delivers Tory Election Bloodbath, Labour 400+ Seat Landslide - 1st July 24
Bitcoin Happy Thanks Halving - Crypto's Exist Strategy - 30th June 24
Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region's Stock Market Indexes - 30th June 24
Gold Mining Stocks Record Quarter - 30th June 24
Could Low PCE Inflation Take Gold to the Moon? - 30th June 24
UK General Election 2024 Result Forecast - 26th June 24
AI Stocks Portfolio Accumulate and Distribute - 26th June 24
Gold Stocks Reloading - 26th June 24
Gold Price Completely Unsurprising Reversal and Next Steps - 26th June 24
Inflation – How It Started And Where We Are Now - 26th June 24
Can Stock Market Bad Breadth Be Good? - 26th June 24
How to Capitalise on the Robots - 20th June 24
Bitcoin, Gold, and Copper Paint a Coherent Picture - 20th June 24
Why a Dow Stock Market Peak Will Boost Silver - 20th June 24
QI Group: Leading With Integrity and Impactful Initiatives - 20th June 24
Tesla Robo Taxis are Coming THIS YEAR! - 16th June 24
Will NVDA Crash the Market? - 16th June 24
Inflation Is Dead! Or Is It? - 16th June 24
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles - 16th June 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 8th June 24
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now - 8th June 24
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market - 8th June 24
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown - 8th June 24
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports - 8th June 24
Gold Summer Doldrums - 8th June 24
S&P USD Correction - 7th June 24
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza - 7th June 24
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To - 7th June 24
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH - 7th June 24
How Much Gold Is There In the World? - 7th June 24
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? - 7th June 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market What Can we Expect in December?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Dec 09, 2016 - 07:33 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

SPX has closed above its daily Cycle Top at 2232.21 and met at least two Fibonacci targets at 2250.00 and 2255.00. It must close back beneath its Cycle Top to get a possible daily sell signal. Preferably Wave 1 should decline to or beneath last Friday’s low at 2187.44 before retesting the Cycle Top. The final challenge of the Cycle Top is the ideal short entry in this scenario.


Beyond that, Wave (1) may decline at least to the Cycle Bottom at 2022.70 or to the 5-year trendline near 2000.00. Again, the ideal decline would go beneath the Brexit low at 1991.68 to set up a clear long-term sell signal. That would be an 11.5% decline that, once reversed, would give an “all clear” for most investors and commentators who would claim that we missed the bullet again (a 20% “bear market” decline).

This also comports with the pattern in the Orthodox Broadening Top, which calls for a 4-6% decline beneath “point 4” at 2083.79.

The Cycles Model allows at least 8.6 days for this to happen, although it may extend another day or so. The reason I use these time periods is that the usual time period for an impulse is usually divisible by 4.3.

8.6 days from today’s high would be near the close of trading on Wednesday, December 21. However, Thursday December 22 is a Pi date, which may extend the decline another 4.3 hours. I am not expecting the decline to last beyond Thursday. Thereafter, the Model calls for a rally until January 6. The crash may happen after that, since the Model calls for a decline until early February. These dates are all guidelines that may be adjusted according to the progress of the decline.

VIX made an apparent Impulsive rally from its low and a near-Fibonacci retracement of 63.3%. It is currently off its daily low and is currently oversold enough to resume its rally.

If the current structure is correct, VIX may have the capability to rally to or above its Cycle Top at 20.14 and Ending Diagonal trendline at or near 22.00 in Wave 3 of (1). The Brexit high in VIX was 26.72, which would be a fitting Wave 5 of (1) peak in VIX.

Simply put, Wave (1) must break the Ending Diagonal trendline to qualify it as a Super Cycle Wave (c) decline.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web.

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in