The whole of this analysis and concluding trend forecast was first made available to Patrons who support my analysis. To get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Formulating a Stock Market Forecast

Now to the hard part, to convert all of the above into a trend forecast for as far distant into the future as I can reliably conclude.

The overall emerging picture from this analysis is one of a market stuck in a trading range with an upward bias. The key question is whether the Dow can break higher out of the trading range or not? Technical analysis including EW suggests YES, whilst the likes of the Presidential cycle says NO.

Furthermore a choppy trading range makes trend projections problematic i.e. it is not easy to say when a swing will top or bottom just what the overall direction should be. So in terms of determining trend then an obvious trough for the stock market would be during October, which would likely be coming off a September high. Than that downtrend during October would need to bottom by mid November to set the scene for the expected December santa rally that could just see the market at least challenge it's all time high.

Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion as illustrated by the below chart is for the Dow to target a trend towards Dow 26,000 by Mid September, following which the market should correct during October that could retrace all of the move from August to Mid September which would then set the scene for the Santa rally to start during November and continue post Christmas that would target a new all time high at approx Dow 27,000.

Peering into the Mysts of Time

A Trade war induced China financial crisis coupled with weakening economic indicators such as a narrowing in the Yield Curve towards Inversion does NOT bode well for the stock market for 2019, so perhaps it would be wise to lighten one's stock holdings during this forecast Trump rally. Just as it has proven wise to have dumped Chinese stocks earlier this year!

This forecast conclusion was first made available to Patrons on the 21st of July 2018. To get immediate access and First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.