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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

The Inflationary Exponential Stocks Bull Market

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Aug 04, 2018 - 12:38 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

This is part 2 of my stock market in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast. Part 1 (Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President). The whole of this analysis that includes my core analysis and detailed trend forecasts was first made available to Patrons who support my analysis. To get immediate access First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

This is a good time to remind my readers of the difference in perception of between bull and bear markets for they are not the same. The stock market does not exist in a trading range that oscillates between roughly equal bull and bear market price gyrations. The primary over riding trend is always INFLATIONARY which means Bear markets are CORRECTIONS.


In fact we are currently in the mother of all bull markets, even if my expectations since Trump got elected have been of a mature bull market set to experience a series of significant corrections of 8% or so, as was my expectation of early 2018 (Dow 23k target).

So whilst today the bears are once more blaming the Fed for the failure for stocks to fall, and it's not the Fed or the corporate's for buying back their own stock, or that the markets are manipulated! All without understanding the fundamental fact that the MARKET is the sum of ALL of ACTIONS and the only place where this can be seen to become manifest is in the PRICE, just as I stated in March 2009 right at the beginning of this stocks bull market!

15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470

The markets ARE manipulated, once you as a small investor come to agree with this statement then you can take the necessary steps to prevent yourself from being wiped out by ALWAYS keeping this in mind that Manipulated markets WANT you to act in a certain manner at certain times, they want you to buy into the latter stages of a bubble as the manipulators distribute, and the market manipulators want you to SELL into Market Bottoms and early bull rallies when the manipulators are accumulating.

Who are the market manipulators ? Today it is the Investment banks, investment funds, CEO's (stock options) and last but not least HEDGE FUNDS that created the stocks bubble through leverage of X20 or more that subsequently bankrupted the banks that were driven insane by short-term greed with trillions of dollars of liabilities which have NOW been fraudulently dumped onto the tax payers. I have not heard a single story of a hedge fund manager losing money, not one! They have BANKED their profits ! The losers are their investors who held on and the banks who leveraged them up to the tune of tens of trillions, and in the final instance the Tax payers who are being FORCED to bail out the bankrupt banks to the tunes of tens of trillions!

The only thing that actually matters is the PRICE ! NOTHING ELSE! and I mean NOTHING ! Not earnings, Not fundamentals. Listen to the PRICE or you WILL miss the Stealth Bull Market!

And remember this is what I have been stating for the EIGHT YEAR DURATION of this stocks bull market that the Fed and the rest have been manipulating stock markets since at least October 1987! The day after the crash when the Dow BOUNCED! (See how I beat the 1987 CRASH) and my following 3 ebook's (FREE DOWNLOAD).

The Inflation Mega-trend EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond Ebook

Where my message for the duration of this 8 year stocks bull market has been a very simple one of "greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".

And even though all bull markets do eventually come to an end. However, that end ALWAYS tends to prove temporary, soon appearing as inconsequential blips on the long-term trend chart as the overall inflationary stock market trend is exponential! Which is why the Great Stock Market crashes of the past such as 1929 and 1987 are barely visible blips today.

Similarly the likes of the dot com bubble bear market and financial crisis have already been diminished in significance in terms of the long-term trend i.e. it does not matter that much whether one bought stocks near the 2007 top at say Dow 13,000 or towards the bear market bottom say 800 in terms of the current value of ones stock market holdings at Dow 25,000. And definitely not when compared to what the perma bears would have experienced if they had actually shorted stocks at any point that their mantra proclaimed that THE FINAL TOP was IN! And then held those shorts as the Dow rallied to 25k!

So bear these two points in mind when investing in stocks -

1. The greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".

2. The long-term inflationary stock market trend is Exponential!

Thus the reality of ALL bear markets in the general stock market indices such as the Dow is to present investors with their latest stock buying opportunities in advance of the resumption of what is an inflationary exponential stock market trend, all whilst the bears perpetuate none existant deflationary scenarios.

Next > Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis

The rest of this analysis continues in part 3 which will be published shortly as my core analysis and detailed trend forecasts are first made available to Patrons who support my analysis. To get immediate access and First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

4caster
06 Aug 18, 16:05
Exponential Bull Market

Whilst I agree that equities are always in a long-term (supra-secular?) bull market, your arithmetic-scale DJIA graph does not show it. You should be using a semi-logarithmic scale; I have one in front of me covering the last 118 years, from http://forecast-chart.com/historical-dow-industrial.html (notwithstanding the name). Broadly it is a straight rising diagonal line. But the biggest plunge by far starts from the 1929 peak. The DJIA took some 18 years to regain that value. Other periods showing no increase, and a likely loss for buyers who bought at the start and sold in the interim, were approximately 1964-1982 and 1999-2011. The 1987 crash barely registers. None of this conflicts with your conclusions; it's just that you could have found a better graph to illustrate them! I always look forward to, and respect, your offerings.


Nadeem_Walayat
06 Aug 18, 20:44
deflation

In the 1930's there was deflation, since which time there has been exponential inflation to which stocks are leveraged. Whilst my experience of the stock markets is from 1985 onwards... So what went before it's not really in my mind.


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