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US Presidential Election 2020 Forecast Review

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020 Dec 14, 2020 - 05:26 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

This series of in-depth analysis (AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels Q4 2020 Analysis) covers the following topics:

  • US Presidential Election 2020 Forecast Review
  • Seeing Stock Market New Highs Through the Prism of AI
  • Stock Market Dow Quick Take
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels and EC ratio Explained
  • Top 10 AI Stocks individual analysis i.e. for Google, Amazon, Apple etc.
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels Q4 2020
  • The Next IMMINENT Global Catastrophe After Coronavirus

However the whole of this extensive analysis has already first been made available to Patrons who support my work so immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.


US Presidential Election 2020 Forecast Review

Congratulations to President Elect Harris, I mean Biden, though Joe is looking pretty frail at 78, not looking like a man that can take one of the toughest jobs on the planet regardless of his 8 years experience as Obama's VP. A Biden Presidency is definitely going to end up being short lived at least terms implementation of a Biden agenda if not short lived in duration. So Americans need to prepare themselves for their First female ethnic President Kamala Harris. Anyway lets hope that Biden at least makes it to his inauguration day! I am mean he has worked so hard towards becoming President he should at least get to enjoy that day.

On the plus side it looks like the republicans have not lost control of the Senate, so checks and balances remain in place to keep Harris in check just as the Trump Presidency was largely kept in check by Nancy Pelosi much to his and Trump supporters anger that should now play out in the rights favour.

US election night proved to be a nail biting event, one of Biden taking an opening lead that evaporated within hours where by Midnight US time it looked as though Trump could pull off another election miracle like 2016 though if one turned down the volume and looked at the MSM presenters on the likes of CNN then the faces told a difference story, it's as though they knew Trumps lead was temporary, like they were trying to pull the wool over the eyes of their viewers as they guided them calmly towards towards a Biden election victory all whilst ridiculing Trump in ever more abusive language.

Where the betting markets are concerned Biden's opening odds of 1.4 to 2.9 for Trump that had persisted for over a week going into close of the polls soon evaporated with the odds gyrating all over the place eventually giving Trump an early lead by around 3am UK time, even extending at one point to Biden trading at over 4 on Betfair on the return from which I could not resist putting another bet on Biden to win at 3.1. Given the poor odds in the lead up to the election and short lived volatility, I did not bet as heavily as I had last time on Trump, nevertheless a Biden win still converts into profits.

I hope those who followed my analysis and forecast conclusion managed to pick up an opportunity to bet on Biden north of 2.0 on Betfair, even though the opportunity did not persist for more than a few hours on election night, that once more by 5am resolved towards suggesting a Biden victory ahead of Trump's statement some hours later that the election was being stolen from him.

Yes, no election is clean, there will be some electoral fraud out there, likely on both sides, but it would be necessary for fraud on an epic scale to overturn this electron result. So regardless of what happens over the coming weeks, I don't see evidence materialising to the magnitude necessary to over turn this election result, at most there are likely errors that could swing it in Trumps favour by a couple of thousand votes in total, when what Trump needs to win is an error / fraud that is a 100 fold that number.

Election Night Chaos Was Expected

My video of Tuesday 3rd November some 8 hours before the polls closed warned to expect a highly Chaotic season finale to the Trump Show, one of Trump taking an early polls lead that would prompt him to declare himself victorious and then to go to war against the count of the Mail in Ballots.

US Election CHAOS! Trump to Contest Result, Refuse to Concede Defeat if Biden Wins! Mail in Ballots!

So the pollsters got another election badly wrong, so much for the 8%-10% lead and resulting 400+ landslide electoral college projections that the likes of MSNBC and Nate Silver were peddling in the run up to election day.

A reminder my forecast as of 31st October stated that whilst Biden would win, however that the polls were WRONG, skewed against conservative opinions in general and definitely Trump, as the establishment were not taking any chances and so had gotten their vote out and pumped every propaganda tool at their disposal to the hilt which of course includes opinion polls. Hence my forecast concluding in a far narrower gap between Biden and Trump of 2.7% rather than the 8% to 10% of MSM propaganda

Stock Market Trend Forecast into January 2021, Final Election Forecast Matrix .

Trump or Biden Win 2020? US Presidential Election Matrix Final Forecast

Whilst the current state of the play has Biden winning on 51% to Trump on 47.2% in an election that had the independent vote squeezed, a 3.8% spread vs pollsters 8%, against my forecast of 2.7% that is likely to conclude in a final tally for Biden of 306 electoral college votes..

Any forecasting lessons to be learned for next time?

An election result of Biden winning on 3.8% as opposed to Biden winning on 2.7% ahead of Trump, we'll where election forecasts are concerned, they can't get much better than that. The only variable I will seek to incorporate next time is whether the Independant vote will get squeezed or not, which depends on the degree of difference between candidates, i.e. the greater the difference then the more squeezed will the Independant vote become.

Whilst in terms of the electoral college then that will continue to be based on the average polling percentage conclusion as it is beyond the scope of my interest in US Politics to start delving into what is going on in individual state elections.

Overall I am pleased with the performance of this elections analysis that proved accurate in outcome and in size of election victory for Biden, and hope to replicate again in future elections.

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work so immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Also gain access to my latest analysis (AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels Q4 2020 Analysis) that covers:

  • US Presidential Election 2020 Forecast Review
  • Seeing Stock Market New Highs Through the Prism of AI
  • Stock Market Dow Quick Take
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels and EC ratio Explained
  • Top 10 AI Stocks individual analysis i.e. for Google, Amazon, Apple etc.
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels Q4 2020
  • The Next IMMINENT Global Catastrophe After Coronavirus

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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