Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21
Last Chance to GET FREE Money Crypto Mining with Your Desktop PC - 2nd May 21
Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep? - 2nd May 21
Stock Market Enough Consolidation Already! - 2nd May 21
Inflation or Deflation? (Not a silly question…) - 2nd May 21
What Are The Requirements For Applying For A Payday Loan Online? - 2nd May 21
How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part1 - 1st May 21
INDIA COVID APOCALYPSE - 1st May 21
Are Technicals Pointing to New Gold Price Rally? - 1st May 21
US Dollar Index: Subtle Changes, Remarkable Outcomes - 1st May 21
Stock Market Correction Time Window - 30th Apr 21
Stock Market "Fastest Jump Since 2007": How Leveraged Investors are Courting "Doom" - 30th Apr 21
Three Reasons Why Waiting for "Cheaper Silver" Doesn't Make Cents - 30th Apr 21
Want To Invest In US Real Estate Market But Don’t Have The Down Payment? - 30th Apr 21
King Zuckerberg Tech Companies to Set up their own Governments! - 29th Apr 21
Silver Price Enters Acceleration Phase - 29th Apr 21
Financial Stocks Sector Appears Ready To Run Higher - 29th Apr 21
Stock Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues - 29th Apr 21
Get Ready for the Fourth U.S. Central Bank - 29th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stock: Were Upswings Just an Exhausting Sprint? - 29th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Lead the Bull Market Charge - 28th Apr 21
AMD Ryzen Overclocking Guide - 5900x, 5950x, 5600x PPT, TDC, EDC, How to Best Settings Beyond PBO - 28th Apr 21
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator - 28th Apr 21
No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold - 28th Apr 21
Is The Covaids Insanity Actually Getting Worse? - 28th Apr 21
Dogecoin to the Moon! The Signs are Everywhere, but few will Heed them - 28th Apr 21
SPX Indicators Flashing Stock Market Caution - 28th Apr 21
Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited - 28th Apr 21
6 Challenges Contract Managers Face When Handling Contractual Agreements - 28th Apr 21
Corsair H150i Pro iCUE Firmware Update Says Bye Bye - H100i, H115i, Bricked Jet Engine Fans Fix - 27th Apr 21
Bude Cliff Walk and Secluded Pebble Beach Tour in VR 360 - Cornwall UK Holidays 2021 - 27th Apr 21
The Top 3 CBD Oils with Anti-Inflammatory Properties for Stopping Pain - 27th Apr 21 -
Biden’s Green New Deal - 27th Apr 21
Gold Stocks Upleg Accelerates - 27th Apr 21
The Tax Plan to Slay the Stocks Bull Market? - 26th Apr 21
See What’s Next for European Markets - 26th Apr 21
Gold's Perfect Storm - 26th Apr 21
Biden’s ‘Green Reset’ Could Be Great for Silver - 26th Apr 21
SPX Stock Market Short Squeeze – Here Or Not? - 25th Apr 21
Fiscal Guilt: What a Shift in Monetary Policy Portends for Investors - 25th Apr 21
Gold Price Reversal? Have No Fear! - 24th Apr 21
No Fear Of Inflation; Threat Of Deflation - 24th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

US Coronavirus Pandemic Current State

Politics / Pandemic Feb 12, 2021 - 02:02 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Remember the big picture folks of a trend towards a full spectrum war against the emerging Chinese Empire as per my series of in-depth analysis of December 20216 towards which the Chinese prematurely unleashing a bio weapon due to incompetence is just one facet of this full spectrum war against this emerging totalitarian empire that in less than a decade will could to be come to seen as Nazi Germany when enacting their own versions of the final solutions on populations and lands they seek to conquer i.e. bordering Asian nations, Australia and large chunks of Africa in addition to wiping out conquered peoples such as the Uighurs that now reside within China's borders.


Unfortunately for the US the key problem is that like much of the rest of the western world faces the time bomb of having to ride the crest of the London strain and then all of the other strains that can so easily make their way into highly fluid US population centres, which given the huge pool of infected acts as incubators for many home grown strains. Which means the US NEEDS to be AHEAD of the UK in terms of vaccinations so as to stifle the viruses opportunity to mutate.

Still after a slow start the US is stating to accelerate it's vaccinations programme after Biden took office and made it his number one priority.

In terms of vaccinations the US is about 2 weeks behind the UK, which on face value may not sound like much but given that the US is increasingly going to see the London strain become dominant or a derivative of it then in reality the US needs to be a couple of weeks ahead of the UK. Which means there is a good chance that the US going to continues experience severe pandemic pain over the next couple of months. Though of course things could be worse i.e. Europe which is even further behind the curve in terms of vaccinations hence engaged in a Vaccines war with the UK.

The failure of the US to act in terms of vaccinations means the US deaths per day are flat lining rather than declining as is the case for the UK which confirms to expect the stubbornly high number of daily deaths to continue for some weeks despite advances in treatments.

In total 465,000 americans have now died at the hands of the chinese virus, therefore unfortunately the US continues to trend towards a target of 750,000 covid-19 deaths by the end of 2021.

In terms of economic impact this looks set to act as a drag on the US economy for the whole of Q1 though is being off set by Biden's first stimulus money printing run of $1.8 trillion with plenty more inflationary stimulus money printing to come during the year.

The bottom line is that end is in sight, in 2 to 3 months time we should all be mostly living in a post pandemic lockdown's world of sorts, UNLESS.......

Covid-20 - The South African Strain

Whilst the London strain that has rightly gleaned much media attention since it emerged some 4 months ago, nevertheless does respond to covid-19 antibodies and vaccines. South Africa, the cradle of humanity where homo sapiens likely first emerged some 400,000 years ago looks set to deliver mankind a major blow during 2021. Basically covid-19 anti-bodies and therefore vaccines based on an immune response have little or no effect on this new strain which therefore should be named Covid 20.

A trial conducted in South Africa involving 2000 people by Wits VIDA Research resulted in 42 covid cases of which 39 were SA variant, 20 in the Placebo group (2.3%), 19 in the vaccine group (2.5%). Resulting in 10% Vaccine efficacy to the SA variant, against expected 60% 1st dose efficacy against covid-19.

So it looks like the Astrazenica type of vaccines only offer limited protection to the SA strain prompting the SA government to suspend their vaccination programme before it even began. However on the bright side AstraZenica have already begun developing a SA variant vaccine that they aim to start delivering in quantity from September onwards. So whilst the Covid-20 SA virus will be disruptive, However it will be nowhere near on the scale that of the Covid-19 Chinese virus given that governments are actually starting to do what they should have done a year ago! i.e. isolating travelers from infected areas, a reminder that they NEVER did that for chinese travelers, encouraged by the World Health Organisation not to prevent travelers from China spreading the virus across the world due the fact that China would cut funding to the WHO if they recommended such actions and hence chinese travelers sowed the seeds for the Catastrophe that took place during 2020 as I warned at the time on the 2nd of Feb 2020.

Coronavirus Pandemic Day 55 Outbreak Trend Analysis

At the end of the day the message should be clear in that we need to live in a zero covid world like New Zealand where the number of cases needs to be ZERO so that the virus cannot mutate. In the meantime the markets like bad news such as this because it means the printing press will continue to run at full throttle.

The rest of this extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 has first been made available to Patrons who support my work so immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021

  • UK Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
  • US Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
  • Stock Market Forecasts and Analysis Review of 2020
  • The Stock Market Big Picture
  • Post Covid Economic Boom
  • GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Dow Short-term Analysis
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES 
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Presidential Cycle
  • Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)
  • Dow Stock Market 2020 Outlook Forecast Conclusion

My forthcoming schedule for analysis includes:

  • AI stocks buying levels update
  • UK house prices trend forecast
  • Stock market trend forecast for 2021
  • Bitcoin price trend forecast
  • US Dollar and British Pound analysis

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2021 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in